07mk
4d ago
All seems reasonable, but if we reach the point where latency going up from picoseconds on regular OS to nanoseconds on LLM OS, it seems to me that it won't be enough to be meaningful on a regular consumer-level device. Even high level gamers generally measure lag in milliseconds, which is many orders of magnitude longer, and I don't think human perception will get that much faster.
Then again, with transhumanism being very possible in our future, perhaps even a single picosecond extra latency will prove completely unacceptable for consumer-level tools.
07mk
4d ago
In terms of speed, I expect that, at some point in our future, we'll have microchips cheap enough for regular consumers to buy by the dozen from China that each make the entirety of Anthropic's current data centers look like a basic calculator in comparison. When it's basically trivial for an entry-level PC to run the equivalent of 100 Mythoses at 100x the speed that we can today, I feel like it won't add enough overhead to the user experience to be noticeable.
In terms of security, that's likely a tougher nut to crack, but I'm an optimist when it comes to how good multiple LLMs checking each other will be.
07mk
4d ago
3.8% rate translates to about 0.3% increase in a month, which is small enough that I haven't noticed anything in particular. However, I've certainly taken notice of the gasoline prices going up to $4+/gallon (I think I saw $6+/gallon for diesel). I'm in a fortunate enough situation that I barely drive and my public transportation costs are subsidized by my workplace, so this hasn't affected my life directly, but I can only imagine how much gig economy workers are suffering, along with everyone who actually commutes via driving their own vehicles.
07mk
4d ago
Think of an office with 10 human employees working in, say, payroll, constantly sending each other emails, messages, having meetings, calling and speaking to each other and other people, summarizing documents, liaising with other departments, asking AI question about how to use various accounting tools, or about the company’s employee benefits package. Now say this department is automated. An AI model acts as an agent to use an already-existing software package to do all the payroll work. No emails, calls or meetings - or at least far fewer. The total inference work required goes down.
It's not obvious to me that it follows that the total inference work required goes down, either necessarily or most likely. The inference needs for emails, calls, meetings, etc. certainly would go down, but the LLM agent(s) will still need to use inference for chain-of-thought and planning to substitute whatever actual work the humans were doing, and those inference needs may very well be greater than the communications and informing-humans inference that got obviated.
This is before getting into how human demand for useful stuff just seems to keep expanding as capacity to supply them expands. E.g. one pretty obvious thought I had was about LLM-based operating systems to replace Windows and Linux and iOS in the future, which won't need any software specifically written for it - just write any software in any language, including made-up language or pseudo-code, and the LLM would just "compile" that to the 1s and 0s required for whatever CPU to interpret to accomplish the logic of that code (this might last for a hot minute until it needs just some general list of specs - which might last a hot minute until it needs just to read your brain activity via electrodes, to infer what sort of software would make you happy in the moment - which might last a hot minute until it needs just to look at your facial expressions to infer the same thing). Surely a world in which every phone and home computer ran an OS like that is one that would require orders of magnitude more inference costs than today.
07mk
5d ago
Its frankly hilarious to me that the Dems are basically stuck with the coalition they built and all its dysfunction because they elevated the AOCs, Kamala Harris', Jasmine Crocketts and Stacey Abrams amongst them, and the most motivated and active parts of their base are all-in on identity politics, so trying to wrest back the controls will require exercises of raw, naked power that is just as likely to bite them in the ass as it is to select a viable candidate.
There's certainly quite a bit of dark humor to be found in the fact that the DEI party is willing to hurt itself as a way to provide a costly signal that it really does believe in DEI. I just can't help but keep thinking of the trolley problem meme "You can stop the trolley at any time, but in doing so you need to admit that you made a mistake."
Your comment makes me think now, of when, if ever, will androids gain whatever human qualities are required in order to be capable of raping a human? This seems like a potentially important threshold to cross in the realm of sex bots, given how common rape fantasies are among humans.
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