4aa56b277bc7
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User ID: 326
4aa56b277bc7
5mo ago
I don’t understand the escalation fear for this scenario. US and Soviet pilots shot each other down in both Korea and Vietnam, right?
Let’s say NATO pre-commits to enforcing Ukrainian sovereignty, at either the 2022 or the 2014 borders. NATO starts shooting down Russian air assets first. Russia responds with conventional missiles aimed at a US carrier group. NATO escalates with conventional strikes against Russian ground forces in Ukraine.
At what point would Russia escalate with tactical nuclear weapons? What is their motivation to do this? Control of Ukraine is not critical for Russian security; we know this because they haven’t had it for three decades and they haven’t been invaded or suffered any threat whatsoever.
Even if Russia does use tactical nukes, again let’s say at a US CSG, then NATO counter strikes Russian forces; even if the target is on proper, pre-2014 Russian soil, there still isn’t an incentive to escalate to strategic nuclear weapons, because all Russia needs to do is withdraw from Ukraine and there is no further threat.
So why would Russia commit suicide over Ukraine?
Someone please explain the escalation ladder that leads from NATO and Russian forces in a direct conflict (over Ukraine) to global thermonuclear war.
4aa56b277bc7
5mo ago
If Ukraine had invaded, murdered, raped, and kidnapped Russians first, then I wouldn’t call Russia’s current military deployment in Ukraine a war of conquest, even if they annexed territory. It matters who started it and why.
4aa56b277bc7
5mo ago
What treaty obligations have gone unfulfilled? Or do you just mean that US allies believe that it has some kind of implicit treaty to give Ukraine military aid?
Mysterious force of nature it seems.
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