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4bpp

Now I am become a Helpful, Honest and Harmless Assistant, the destroyer of jobs

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joined 2022 September 05 01:50:31 UTC

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User ID: 355


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
4bpp


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Now I am become a Helpful, Honest and Harmless Assistant, the destroyer of jobs

				
				
				

				

					4 followers  

					follows 2 users  

					joined 2022 September 05 01:50:31 UTC
				


				
					

					
<3



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 355


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Huh, I have to say you are not among the top posters I expected to go into a doomer meltdown after the election. What gives? Did you expect a significantly different outcome? Is it El Sayed specifically?


On the object level-




Even lightly chipping away at one of the sandbox’s walls requires the legislative energy of an entire term, and all the while they can accomplish nothing else, must contend with moderates in their own faction




The lede, which is that actual conservative restoration does not have a majority, is buried pretty deep here. Really, there's a very short summary of the situation you are describing: progressive policies are implemented unless a majority opposes them, while conservative policies are only implemented if a majority endorses them. The bias is entirely implemented using the slack given by the indifferent, so the result is not per se undemocratic.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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In what direction do you expect such a policy to shift the election outcome, and why?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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The difference is that Gerald Ford was fairly milquetoast presidential material, while JD Vance does not fit the mold at all in appearance and demeanor, and appears to be instinctively loathed by normies to the point that I seriously think Trump may have picked him as a threat to discourage his own removal.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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We have maybe about 5 people with unconditional pro-Trump values and about 3 for Israel (in the sense that "convince people of the righteousness of (Trump/Israel)" is a significant part of their motivation to post at all). They always show up for these topics, and the active user base is small enough that this is enough to make their views seem dominant.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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I'd bet that at least one of the next three distinct US presidents (including the tail of the Trump administration, mostly to cover the nontrivial possibility that it will collapse in favour of something more pro-Western in the next two years after all) will order physical military action on Iranian territory at pretty steep odds.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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It's obviously your in-group biases showing, because a larger gap than white men's 55-43 red is right there in your numbers (women's 58-40 blue) but you presumably felt no concern that women would "continue to feel disenfranchised and start checking out of the increasingly masculinized society" when the red team was ahead.


If being outvoted on your group's preferences amounts to disenfranchisement any time it happens, then representative democracies disenfranchise most groups most of the time. If this actually led to "checking out" every time it happened for even one legislative period, most representative democracies would long have collapsed.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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It's a favourite pastime for people who fancy themselves "high-information" to let some artificial macroeconomic metrics override common-sense observations. Another instance of this was when people were confidently predicting the swift end (in Western favour) of the Ukraine war based on GDP comparisons back in 2022.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I mean, isn't Evangelical support for Israel premised on something to the effect of "we need Israel to be strong and pick wars with everyone, so they get pushed to the brink of destruction, which will trigger a prophesied sequence of events leading to the Second Coming of Jesus"? It's hard to fault them for not reciprocating this kind of love; even if you can decouple from the creepiness of it, on a material level it is clear that their mid-term preferences do not actually entail any sort of peace and prosperity for Israel except insofar as it needs to be lifted up to fall down better. Can you blame the goose for being ungrateful when you are fattening it up for Christmas?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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I don't get what's going on with Responsible Statecraft's




"Nothing to see here," the American Conservative's Curt Mills snarked, pointing to a graph showing voting preference averages literally flipping from Republicans to Democrats since the war was launched in February.




If I look at the tweet linked thence, it appears to show a graph where voting preference averages flipped in March 2025, and there is barely any detectable signal of anything in Feb 2026. Am I blind, or are these people all failing at reading graphs? (...perhaps they are so discombobulated that they only read the "Jan" on the left and the "Aug" on the right and assume the graph must run from Jan to Aug of this year?)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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I don't know. Demoralisation of the other team (or some blind hope of achieving it) has been the supreme aspiration of American politicians for a while now, and nothing would demoralise right-wingers like exploiting the burned wastes left in Trump's wake to run Kamala again and win.