I think it’s plausible for a few reasons:
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Since the Maidan revolution, Russia has had every paranoid fear of NATO being out to get them validated by NATO. I think Russia genuinely views it as an existential struggles. Both the leadership and a good chunk of the people.
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Poland just isn’t as well suited to turning into a four year grinding trench war. It’s geographically a lot smaller, it’s land army manpower is somewhere between 15 percent and 50 percent the size of the Ukrainian Army. Most of the modernization went into magic beans (F16s, M1 tanks) that are serviceable but apparently not that magical in modern warfare.
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God only knows what the hell is going to be going on in Burgerland in six months, much less three years. They may or may not get involved.
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Europe is in pretty good shape to drip-feed equipment to Ukraine. But if that turned into “immediately mobilize 115 divisions and rush them into Eastern Europe while hypersonic missiles are crashing into every railway station and airfield Between Paris and Warsaw” they would be up Shit Creek.
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If Ukraine really does fall I suspect a lot of countries are going to rapidly revaluate their commitment to the cause.
ABigGuy4U
5hr ago
Well I was trying to steelman OP’s thesis so I had to accept at least some of his assertions. I meant it’s not unreasonable to assume that Russian forces have possibly taken enough damage to make it not feasible to mount an invasion of Poland even if they wanted to. I don’t agree but I don’t laugh in his face for making the argument. Personally I think this whole boondoggle has probably increased the capability of the Russian army and made them more likely to go for Poland or the Baltic states, like one of those self-fulfilling prophecies from a Greek tragedy.
ABigGuy4U
7hr ago
Aren't religious conservatives generally anti-AI?
They are quite suspicious about AI, but that’s more over fears about what it could turn into than what it currently is now. The vast majority of evangelical conservatives aren’t going to side-eye you because you shared a meme that was made with AI. That said, I would suggest that anyone in Silicon Valley who is very concerned about existential AI threat start making outreaches to evangelicals, because they are probably the group most likely to listen.
To add an actual thesis to Mushroom’s unhinged screed, I would steelman it as:
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Ukraine has a decent chance of continuing attritional warfare until Russia gives up.
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Even if part or all of Ukraine falls, it performed a valuable service in keeping Russia from advancing further into Eastern Europe.
I don’t think either of those theses are inherently ridiculous (especially not the second one), but they both rely on Russia really being as banged up as Mushroom thinks they are. Which who knows. I know for a fact that previous popular estimates of vast Russian men and vehicle losses were quietly and sheepishly exposed as bullshit by all the actual intelligence agencies that were keeping track (CIA, SIS, Mossad). I am really looking forward to reading some assessments of the war 20 years from now when it’s not a live political issue.
I also suspect that China has a much stronger interest in keeping Russia whole and threatening Eastern Europe than they publicly let on. That threat is what’s keeping a lot of US attention and resources flowing to places other than the countries of the South China Sea.
ABigGuy4U
7hr ago
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Energy Minister siphoned off $100,000,000 of aid money and fled the country, always a good sign that the war is going well.
ABigGuy4U
8hr ago
Aircraft carriers usually have regular Catholic mass, I don’t know about ships with smaller crews.
The specific issue that he picked seems like bullshit TDS nitpicking, and given the vlogbrother’s passive aggressive approach to politics I am not surprised. But the overall point is well taken. The Framers did not design the legislature with this level of partisanship in mind, and the system is starting to break down. And I think he’s right that the imperial presidency is as much of (or more) the result of congressional breakdown as it is the ambitions of the individual presidents themselves. I am pretty bleak about the prognosis of the American government.
Yes, Oryx, which abruptly shut down in late 2023 when it was about to become obvious how totally full of shit they were.
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