BahRamYou
3d ago
Haven't seen the movie yet, but I just finished the book. I had the same thought- the writing style is positive enough to be enjoyable, but it's also very cringe. It's the sort of thing that would have absolutely dominated Reddit upvotes 10 years ago but would now get mass downvotes for being insufficiently woke (even though it's still quite woke and internationalist). Definitely some cool ideas though, so great fodder for the professional screenwriters to work with. It also seems to be written for a very specific audience of sci-fi fans- like, it glosses over relativity because it can assume they already know all the important stuff about that since it shows up in sci fi all the time, but painstakingly explains the physics of pendulums in case they forgot that from high school physics class.
BahRamYou
4d ago
Well, maybe. Let's see how many weapons they're able to build after being bombed like this.
In the past, people have complained that the Houthis/Hezbollah/Hamas/Iraq insurgents, etc, were still able to launch attacks no matter how much the US or Israel bombed them. This was often suggested as some fundamental limit on airpower. But it missed that those insurgents weren't, for the most part, making homemade weapons- they were getting them shipped in from Iran. Making those weapons requires state capacity- a large factory, explosives plant, and training on how to make and use them. They can't do any of that when the US is constantly bombing your missile factories, explosives plants, and anyone who shows up on intelligence networks as a likely munitions expert. Not to mention their entire economy was falling apart even before this war started. I couldn't possibly make a 1910 sea mine in my garage using just what I have lying around and no training, could you? Instead what they get is more like what the Afghan insurgents had- crude, unreliable IEDs that could maybe blow up an infantryman but couldn't possibly threaten a ship or airplane. And even there, they were likely getting support from Iran.
I expect there will be a CSG hanging around the Persian Gulf for a long time, but that's hardly a new development. But anyway the carrier planes are way overkill for shooting down shaheeds. Bogey's air speed not sufficient for intercept, suggest we get out and walk. Instead the US and GCC are using Apache helicopters armed with guns or cheap rockets to shoot down drones. And if this continues for long, we can set up lasers like the iron beam in Israel to shoot them down even more cheaply. The only way pure drones break through that is with overwhelming numbers, and they just won't have that without industrial state capacity to both build and coordinate attacks.
BahRamYou
4d ago
Yes, exactly. And the Naval Gazing article about that is excellent. In a nutshell, the Iranian missile boats that were supposedly a dire threat to our navy were already badly outclassed even in 2002, unlikely to hit their targets and essentially helpless to any air attack. Which is... pretty much what we've seen so far. The USN has not lost a single ship, while the Iranians missile boats are getting wrecked. As far as I know they haven't done anything at all, their only real success at sea is using drones to hit tanker ships.
BahRamYou
4d ago
What he misses is that it's not just Iran that's been preparing for this conflict for 40 years- the US has been also. Other than Russia snd maybe China, I don't think there's a single other country that the US has spent more time wargaming and thinking about how to defeat.
In particular, their favorite tactic of "mass swarms of cheap drones and missiles across short distances" is not some brilliant new innovation. The US (and Israel) has had plenty of time to work out how to beat it. In particular, it relies on them having a functional command/control to launch those attacks all at once with coordination. But since they lost all their C3 on like, day 2 of this war, all they've been able to do is launch small numbers at random, mostly unimportant targets.
Its also very easy for the US to bomb any obvious lanch sites or weapons caches, so they're rapidly running out of weapons even without firing them. Especially the big expensive antiship missiles and fast attack boats that were their biggest threat. Pretty soon, all they'll have left is small numbers of crappy drones that can be easily be shot down by gunfire or even lasers. At that point, the Strait reopens, and their regime will have no leverage and no funding.
He's right, of course, that if the US gives up now it would be a disaster. But for me, the implication of that is clear- we just have to win. No half measures.
BahRamYou
5d ago
Ive heard anecdotally that this is less of a factor than Western news reports. Plenty of Chinese families were still having girls, some wealthier families had more than one by buying exemptions, and the rural areas has plenty of dangerous jobs that killed off young men. Still an imbalance of men, but its not some massive imbalance like people think. (Sorry I don't have a good source on hand for this, this is all just what I've remembered reading in the past, I may be wrong)
BahRamYou
6d ago
There were conflicting reports about this, but that earlier report of mines seem to have been debunked unless the US was keeping it secret for some reason. This new one seems a lot more certain, telling us [exactly which kind of mines were laid[(https://maritime-executive.com/article/report-floating-and-bottom-mines-detected-in-strait-of-hormuz).
BahRamYou
6d ago
It seems like this wouldn't work well in the strait of hormuz, where the deep shipping channels are so narrow (just 2 miles wide, one each way). Unless they're making some sort of bullet hell maze with the correct path only known to their friendly ships lol. I guess they could drop mines in other part of the Gulf and leave the Strait alone, but Im not sure what that accomplishes. I guess we'll find out. UK says it's going to send mine hunters
Bear in mind that Robert Kagan is a never-Trumper who publically endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016. Since then, he's had no real government positions, so he's just an unimportant newspaper pundit now. Hes been wildly against everything Trump has ever done. Most of the other Neocons strongly support the Iran war- indeed, many have noted that they seem to have convinced Trump to get into it when he was strongly isolationist in his first term.
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