Bingbong
21d ago
I mean most of the age-gap relationships I see are more of the 'lifer hospitality worker in his mid thirties and random 19 year old cashier' type than the rich or wealthy involved in them. They're also generally more towards lower socioeconomic ends of society for a variety of reasons.
I agree that some subset of the rich and/or famous date down, but the majority of the rich don't have that much social clout and your average UMC middle-high manager with a mortgage and a 5M networth is generally not in any position to find a wife who's 20 years younger than him.
Bingbong
21d ago
Taiwan is the 14th highest GDP per capita and they elect their leaders through simple FPT
I wouldn't refer to Taiwan as any sort of a bastion of popular democracy. It's better than it was but a lot of fucking around there.
Bingbong
21d ago
Yeah. Similar in Australia plus you get a lot of cases where people will soft-retire or soft-Stay at home parent by keeping whatever the minimum hours to maintain their accredited status. 1 day a fortnight telehealth or something.
Bingbong
21d ago
KKK meetings made up of 1 FBI guy, 1 CIA guy, 1 SPLC guy and 1 undercover journalist.
Bingbong
21d ago
Yeah but this is a bit of a deranged cycle.
'Offer new gambling product that isn't currently covered by legislative grounds, tax/who can bet in particular' -> 'Figure out how to bring the super popular bits from existing apex gambling products like Sportsbetting, Slots Machine and Casino into your new gambling product using the loophole' -> 'Gradually crank your new product from 90% 'new innovative loophole' to 10% 'new innovative loophole' as people enjoy the perfect ed apex gambling products' -> 'Eventually submit to new regulations, frequently involving sanding off the edges/uniqueness of the original thing that made your product at all different. Also get hit with similar levels of taxation since the govt is always gonna squeeze gambling, so you've once again reinvented the wheel'.
I've worked all across the gambling industry. This cycle plays out every 5-10 years consistently. DFS & Social Casino were the prior big USA entrants. Prediction Markets are the latest incarnation, and are honestly even worse since 'exchange betting' wasn't even a good end-result and has essentially been dying off in other geos for decades now. Polymarket and Kalshi will and are in the process of slowly killing their non-sports offerings since they're controversial, hard to price, hard to create rules for and tend to generate bad optics.
Bingbong
21d ago
I mean it's mostly defi contracts and there's a plethora of massive shitfights on Polymarket about the UMA resolving things in unsatisfactory ways and/or people sniping directionally correct resolutions via hitting on asterisks in the market rule. Vast majority of the money being 'traded' on PMs right now is sports contracts which is more about 'Let's get Texans and Californians betting when their actual legalization is probably not happening 'than it is about any rationalist true price signals.
Bingbong
21d ago
He is the world's youngest self-made billionaire so clearly he's added a lot.
Prediction Market valuation has a lot more to do with the regulated existing gambling industry being stuck in a bit of a quagmire due to state by state licensing and this being a solid potential runaround to get into states and age-groups that aren't otherwise available.
Bingbong
22d ago
Yeah. Sure there's inefficiencies in the healthcare system but I'd rather the high-level medical professional got paid obscenely than the Facebook Button Color optimizer.
Bingbong
22d ago
As somebody who participated in the previous betting exchange boom and bust of a decade or two ago, no shit. You're massively overstating the accuracy/relevance of these markets and they're always going to be cajoled heavily by political pressures into not putting up anything too relevant on geopolitics anyways.
Bingbong
22d ago
Yeah but the Aborigines complain about the current people of the Northern Territory and have way less military and cultural clout with which to complain with.
Bingbong
23d ago
I think there's plenty of places that they could have stuck the Israel project and it'd be a pure unalloyed good. Northern Australia, for instance, where there's fuck all people right now and I'd expect the Jewish diaspora to be far more productive than what's currently there. I do also feel that a lot of the Israel in the Middle East situation was impacted by the sheer amount of Oil reserves in the region, as otherwise the neighboring states would have very little scope to productively oppose the country of Israel since they are not good at creating organized affluent societies.
Bingbong
23d ago
Exactly. Part of the ridiculousness here is that Israelis act in ways that any sensible Western regime should be acting, but get absolutely pilloried for it due to norms of conduct that Jewish thinkers have done their best to encourage off the back of the Holocaust and their outsized influence. If the average Zionist didn't have a sole carveout in their politics for Israel to act belligerently I'd be a lot more supportive of their views.
Bingbong
23d ago
By handle or social visibility?
60% Pokies (Slot machines in bars), 15% casino, 15% racing and 10% sports generally the split. Plus the lottery/scratchies but they get administered differently.
Bingbong
23d ago
For me it's been a function of industry/lifestage.
5 years ago when I was working in the Australian gambling industry there'd be atleast one heavy session a week, plus I was dating at the same time and a lot of incidental on that front. Now I'm self-employed and married with children I'd essentially only drink on special occasions.
I've never really had a 'casual solo drinking' interest though. Price of alcohol and health effects just always made it seem not worthwhile.
Bingbong
23d ago
Is it? When somebody says Chud I picture Big Lez and picture somebody who's like cartoonish boomer stereotype more than a loser perse.
Bingbong
25d ago
Polymarket numbers aren't really indicative of anything until that 5 minutes before an official release where all the liquidity is suddenly gooooone. Even if you had solid fairs for this kinda stuff the insane level of adverse selection makes it impractical to trade. The Prediction market thing makes a lot more sense for regularly occurring phenomena like sports betting
Bingbong
26d ago
Afaik feral horses and work horses are a lot better than racehorses but my personal experience is 99.5% racehorses who are bred for explosiveness via chronic inbreeding and thus are the worst.
Bingbong
26d ago
Yeah I'd agree with this. All things equal, South Asian men are dealing with a -5 modifier in the market and South Asian women are probably dealing with a -1 modifier. The market skews female controlled, though
Bingbong
26d ago
I'm not sure what proportion of Western-born Indians are still engaging in arranged marriages/very encouraged familial introductions but having seen had several close friends/housemates who were Indian-born and did eventually get partners through that system it does seem to be incredibly alive and well.
Plus also combination of South Asian dating market woes + hardcore parental educational expectations + lack of real role models meant that a lot of said friends weren't going anywhere at all left to their own devices so it was essentially a panacea to just get somebody dropped on them in their mid twenties who passed whatever social checks. I'm happily married now to somebody I met through grinding the dating apps, but if in an alternate universe there were an equivalent system of arranged marriages amongst the broader Anglo community I'd imagine I'd be adequately happy with an arranged match assuming similar levels of vetting and 'spirit of making things work'
Bingbong
26d ago
Horses are gigantic temperamental finnicky assholes who die if you look at them funny. Especially racehorses.
Bingbong
26d ago
that terminally online asocial loser boys seek out communities that make them feel like they can change away from being losers?
Yeah but picking a community that's going to jam you full of extra hormones (though unclear in this case whether he had any particular medical assistance) in an already clouded and confusing time of your life, plus grant a persecution complex due to the narratives around Trans genocide and whatnot. Logically you'd try and get your terminally online asocial losers away from a major cognitive hazard that's gonna increase the likelihood of snowballing into something bad. Without even getting into medical transition having way more potential longterm lock-in ramifications than most edgy teenaged behaviors if you do manage to get medicalized.
I think it'd depend on the exact manifestation. 'All Quant Finance in the UK disappears, still happens elsewhere' and 'poof the field of quant finance gets patched out of reality' are very different
Bingbong
26d ago
How big are the margins, though? If somebody arbitrarily limited the tick speed and bumped the fuck out of commission rates to the point that high frequency strategies weren't viable there'd likely be an increase in financial friction but it's not like we didn't have a functional financial system circa 30 years ago with floor traders.
Bingbong
26d ago
They're educated, heavily so. They just didn't have a meaningful pathway into professional academia as a result of having no diversity points and part of my point is that the characteristics that would have landed them somewhat comfortably 20-30 years ago just haven't really had any purchase in dating or job markets.
I've been in the streamer loop and a decent amount of them are children of privilege to begin with, which is why how they got through the initial clout-building stage for years on end before graduating to actually have enough partnerships to self-finance somewhat.
Also a lot of streamer lifestyle goods aren't really that expensive to produce especially if you're a big enough influencer to have the providers of Coachella Tickets and expensive alcohol giving you them at cost.
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