Clavicular
1mo ago
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. Pretty incredible how far ahead of his time Heinlein was. The politics are so unique too. He was one of one.
Clavicular
1mo ago
It's not a Hail Mary. Democrats are going to do everything they can to make the last 2 years of his term hell if they win, and they are predicted as of now to do so. If the Midterms go extremely poorly, then Trump will be the lamest of lame ducks and the knives could come out. If that's the case, Trump may have to make a deal with Iran that is not favorable to the US. That's in my opinion a loss for the US and extremely embarrassing. If I'm Iran, I'm just trying to wait this out as long as possible. They have no incentive to surrender now. Just let the Democrats defeat America from within.
Clavicular
1mo ago
USSR lost 20 million people and won WW2. And you’re just pretending not to understand what they are saying about ironclad autocracies. They don’t have to care about suffering and public opinion like democracies do, and that is just obviously true. They have already caused massive suffering for the Iranian people and are still in charge.
Clavicular
1mo ago
Iran doesn’t lose until the regime falls. They’re in a tough spot, but they still have some options. They can at least wait until the Midterms and if the Democrats win both Houses, Trump will be under extraordinary pressure to end the war. This war is already pretty unpopular, and the longer it goes on, the less popular it will be. If it costs Republicans both houses and they get historically wiped out, some Republicans could turn on him and he’s truly fucked. Iran just needs something like this to happen to “win”.
Why do you write in this style? Do you think that if you talk this way people will find it more convincing? Or is this just performance art and trolling? I honestly can't tell. Also, do you honestly think Trump has deeply held beliefs about Iran that he has actually thought through? He can't be "right" about this because he doesn't actually think about it or have deeply help beliefs on this subject.
Inflation is up, Trump's approval rating is in the gutter, the war is unpopular, and by your own admission it's a 2/3 of pre-war levels! Imagine if they didn't go to war -- it would probably be at 100% pre-war levels because there would be no war! The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at a 44-year low of approximately 289.7 million barrels, having fallen below the 300 million barrel threshold for the first time since 1983. What do you think will happen once that runs out?
Trump spent all of his remaining political capital for this amazing "victory". Iran can keep this up for years. They don't give a shit about their people and their suffering. Unless the regime falls, this war was a complete waste of money which of course adds to the debt. There's no guarantee that the Iran regime will fall during Trump's term, and if they are still around in 2 years, we will have probably spent close to a trillion dollars for no tangible benefit.
Instead, Democrats might take all 3 branches now and become the wokest of wokes to ever woke. Public support for the U.S. military action in Iran has hit record lows, with the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showing just 31% approval, down from 37% in March (so it was never popular). Trump’s approval rating on handling the Iran conflict stands at 25-33% across recent polls, contributing to his overall second-term low approval rating of 33%. How do you think that will go if the war isn't wrapped up soon? If Trump doesn't finish this up by the Midterms and takes a massive L, he's cooked. Republicans may even turn on him.
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