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DirtyWaterHotDog


				

				

				

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joined 2022 September 05 16:31:20 UTC
				

				

				

				

				

				

					
				

				

				
				
				

				
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DirtyWaterHotDog


								
								
									
								
								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				

				
				
				

				

					4 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 05 16:31:20 UTC
				


				
					

					
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User ID: 625


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 31, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Americans are, as a general rule, dressed and groomed like slobs by European standards (not to mention high frequency of obesity)




If there is one place where this isn't true then that's NYC. People are insanely well dressed and fit. Both the rich and the poor.




you additionally have a lot of hobos and crazies, behaving erratically and generally presenting disgusting sight.




Yep




NYC is disgusting. The subway is dirty, and it smells bad. The sidewalks are dirty with the effluents of the trash bags left right outside, without even putting them in any kind of bins or container




Yep. My first thought when I arrived in NYC was that it feels like home. (my 3rd world city in India)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 14, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I get your point, but Chapelle and Kanye were the undisputable godfather-GOAT(generation?) of their respective genres in terms of combining popularity with critical success. Also, I don't think Steph is seen as a 'black' basketball player.




Black entertainers have a deep bench




And you'll find that these sort of opinions are pervasive throughout that bench. The biggest speak out, because they are the most immune (as much as you can be) to repercussions.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				ACX: Moderation is Different from Censorship
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The only reason reddit was so good for so many years was the complete incompetence of the people running it. The Reddit leadership was so bad, that they failed at every pro-monetization move they tried and the website continued having that 2010-eque charm.


The people who run Reddit do not understand Reddit.


We have already seen Tumblr be run into the ground by idiots. From the looks of it, Reddit is fast headed downhill too.


Can you imagine seeing Twitter's shakeup coming from 6 months away, and still having nothing ready to welcome what would've been a massive influx of people looking for a new social media home ?


If you are going to ruin a product, at least do it while laughing your way to the bank. Reddit somehow manages to stay broke and worsen the product.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Medium-Sized Breasts and Gaussian Distributions
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I'm stepping into a tangent off the 2nd shitty sketch, but do you agree with the "middle school bullied kid = loser" paradigm ?


I'm sure plenty of Motte-folks got bullied through school. So did I. I have my reasonable theories on why it happened to me. But, I don't agree with the "loser" paradigm. In my school, losers were ignored, quickly formed their own group and then stopped interacting with the rest of the class.


What was your 'bullying' journey like and what do you think put you in the cross hairs?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 30, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It should doable in 2-3 years with ease, if someone cared enough.


The technology might already be there. There simply isn't enough money to want to do it.


There is also the fact that some of it might be impossible. The physics of an anime only make sense in 5-6 fps. If you try to scale it up, a human might be just as unable to do it as a machine.


Most ML models today match the absolute best human beings, because they are ones who label it. So, if a human can't do it, a machine will surely be unable to do it.


But, it should be totally possible to build something that looks plausible without artefacts for anime that has physical consistency to it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 30, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yeah, the hard part is that it was an amiable breakup. Over our entire 2 years relationship, we never fought once, so it hard for me to go full cold turkey.


We have avoided chatting to help both of us move on. But, we have exchanged chats once or twice in the last 6 months, one of which was a rather embarrassing rant on my part. (Nothing I'd regretful or hateful though)


We decided not to block each other on social media, but I also don't obsess over it or interact with her through social media and vice versa.




some unsavory reality you may have been previously blind to, this can douse the embers pretty thoroughly.




Ah man, I'd hope not. The entire relationship was built on us being 2 people without a poker face. We've broken up, but I'd suck to have 2 happy years of my life yanked away by something truly evil. I mean, a big part of why I even fell for her was because she'd win a 'nicest person on planet earth' award if there was one, and I was the cynical devil's advocate to keep her collateral guilt in check,




Meeting another woman/girl.




Yeah, that's what I'm tending towards. I've met a few people, but it lacks the same enthusiasm as the last time.


There is a 'me' problem at the bottom of it all. I was the one who initiated the breakup, in part due to commitment issues, unwillingness to do long-distance and a mid-life crisis.


So I am in this conundrum where casual intimacy just never feels as rewarding as a real relationship, but my life circumstances keep me from being able to reciprocate the expectations that come with a real relationship.




This is the intuitive, frustrating, simple, and complete answer.




Yep yep yep yep. It's never easy huh.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 30, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Wierd question, but how do you fully move on from a breakup ?


It's been 5 months since i broke up with my gf of 2 years and i still find myself agonizing about it every once in a while.


We broke up on good terms, it was an amazing relationship and honestly we were just not in the same place in life. (Figuratively and geographically). I want to be able to look back at that time in my life fondly, but also move onto something new without feeling much baggage. Time has healed a bit and i have generally been looking forward, but it feels all too slow.


More experienced people int he sub, how have you dealt with this before ?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Kali Yuga: The Dark Age Prophesied in Many Religions
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Canonically, the start of Kalyug is supposed to cooincide with the death of Krishna. This puts it around 3000BCE (give or take 2000 BCE).


So all of recorded human history and indo-european civilization as we know it occur during the kalyuga.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I predict that the housing market will experience a fall of at least Edited to "about" 20% within the next 6 months. I have about a 90% certainty in this.




I used to be sure about this, but I am not so sure anymore. 20% is a fairly small change given that prices are up 2x-ish in some urban areas over the last 5 years. But generally, I do not see a housing crash coming because:


    

  1. 

    The increase in demand for housing is fairly organic. Young people want to buy houses.
    

    2. 

  2. 

    The supply cannot keep up with demand due to NIMBY policies disallowing building and the sorry state of public transit, which further discourages densification. (even the 'good' performers like NYC/Boston are struggling on transit lately)
    

    3. 

  3. 

    It is hard to default on low interest rate mortgages. Especially now that they aren't subprime.
    

    4. 



The way I see it, a housing crash will require massive population shifts away from dense urban areas, and that simply does not seem to be the trend right now. We might see tech hubs suffering, with startup stocks being in the dumpster and a general move towards T2 cities like Austin/Atlanta away from the major hubs of SF/Seattle. Interestingly, NYC is seeing more of an internal readjustment as businesses move to other boroughs (LIC & Jersey City*) instead of moving out of the Metro area.


America's urban housing market seems inflated, but it has been fairly cheap when compared to Canada, London or Indian markets I know about (Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi). For ex: my family's 800 sqft 2 bed apartment in Mumbai costs $600,000 while the average wage in the area is around $15k/yr. I know the Indian equivalent of 'Harvard grads' who have no idea how they'll be able to afford an apartment in the city. Canada has gone completely bonkers. Compared to global markets, the American urban market is surprisingly 'sane'.


So the questions are, what kept the American urban costs so 'reasonable' for so long (white flight? or just plain availability of space); and why would you expect the American housing costs to go back to being 'anomalously affordable' as we come out on the other side of this boom-bust cycle ?


Also, if the relatively insulated economy of the US with its affordable housing prices sees a crash, what's going to happen to Canada? (Maybe we'll find out if there is truth to the Chinese investors story)




My total-market 401k balance did not change in 2022 despite maxing out everything. If that does not say recession, then I do not know what does.


I am partly & selfishly hoping for a massive housing crash, because all my money is in stocks and I lost a ton of money, so I hope everyone else does as well. Everytime stocks crash and houses stay up, you see a massive wealth transfer from renting young professionals to the older homeowners.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 19, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
For a while now, I have been irked by the 'bothsidesism' around South Asian communities, or honestly what is hindu vs muslim discourse in English media (Indian or Western).


    

  • 

    The division of India eventually saw the formation of 3 nations : India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Hindus in Pakistan and Bangladesh were continuously persecuted, as the Hindu communities in either country sought refuge in India. On the other hand, Indian law protects muslims with rights that exceed those of the resident majority hindus. The percentage of muslims in India keeps rising and even the idea of equal-laws-for-all (uniform civil code, equal regulation of all religious institutions) are abandoned by both the Congress and the so-called-fascist BJP.
    

    • 

  • 

    Somehow, lobbying for issues of muslim concern is not considered Islamist, but lobbying for hindu concerns is actively considered far-right-hindu-extremist.
    

    • 

  • 

    Hindus, when they've immigrated to foreign nations, have quickly integrated, become major contributors to the economy and haven't had a single instance of religious terrorism while there. On the other hand, irrespective of the peacefulness of the median muslim, marginal muslims have certainly contributed to terrorism, violence and ghettoization within foreign nations. Even in India, Muslims (and communists) constitute nearly 100% of terrorist attacks within the borders. (2 directional sectarian riots have occured, but they become incredibly hard to decipher chicken-n-egg questions)
    

    • 

  • 

    Hindus do not proselytize, do not go around calling other religions blasphemers or heathen and reject tests of religious purity.
    

    • 

  • 

    There are 3 majority Hindu majority nations and all 3 are true secular democracies. Each country at its worst, is still more liberal and religiously open-minded than any large muslim country in the world. (RIP Kemal Ataturk's Turkey)
    

    • 

  • 

    India has a 'no first use' nuclear policy while Pakistan has a 'first use' nuclear policy.
    

    • 



I could go on and on.............


Hindus has time and again shown to have different sociological group traits than muslim immigrants from the subcontinent. Bodesideism here is visibly incorrect, and the greater emphasis on hindu violence is even more so. This is a big part of why Indians dislike the term South Asian. The differences between Hindu and Muslim communities in the subcontinent are salient. The differences between Indians (likely coded hindu) and Pakistani/Bangladeshi (surely coded muslim) are therefore salient too.




yet I hope also that all those here who consider themselves to have a more clear-eyed understanding of masculinity than the progressive orthodoxy can recognise that the anger of listless young men who seek a flag to rally around is a trait shared by every swathe of humanity that lives under modernity.




Spend long enough down that train of through, and you'd realize that Nehru truly was the first woke-liberal leader the world had ever seen. (and the resulting fallout is a very clear indication of why ideologically blinded woke leaders are terrible in roles that require pragmatism)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 23, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
In a different sense. Climbing is exactly that. Instead of adding workout to games, they gamified workouts.


It took the boring act of excersizing and gamified it. Each boulder is like a platformer level where you have to execute a set of moves and exersize becomes an accesory to allow you to execute the coolest moves.


No wonder tech nerds love climbing. It is computer games in workout format. (The wierd hipster in me lowkeys hates how all tech people love climbing. For once i thought id picked up a non tech hobby, only for every tech person to simulaneously pick it up around the exact time I got into it. We are all truly, a hivemind)




To answer your actual question, the quest 2 did what youre asking for.


In death : unchained and especiall thrill of the fight are amazing workouts. Thrill of the fight is up there with fullfield soccer as one sport that pretty knocks the wind out of me within 20 minutes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Love the thought-provoking take, even if it isn't something I fully agree on. I see some similarities between them.


Both Wokeism and the Neo-EA (AGI-fearmongers) movement run against one of the fundamental observed truths of the universe : "Predicting/Shaping the far-future is a futile exercise". I'd add a corollary to that : "Greedy optimization is the only form of optimization that works". Or in 1 word : "Humility".


Greedy optimization through small short term actions and observable outcomes is depressingly slow. But, it forces you to reconcile with the difference in expectations and actual outcomes. The difference is captured by a lack of understanding of the very underlying systems that these solutions aim to fix.


This is where both Wokeism and Neo-EA run into issues. Wokeism's "All of society needs to buy in into unresearched social change in lock step" demands change that requires generations to observe positive outcomes for, while negative side-effects are disregarded through "real wokeism wouldn't have these issues" or "a few negatives today will far outweigh the benefits that are to come in the promised future" kind of comments.


Neo-EA similarly demands that an entire industry should dedicate its efforts to AI-safety without any non-rhetorical research that proves the arrival of AGI, which they insist is definitely around the corner. They insist that a definite event is around the horizon by extrapolating from the present, a practice that has time-and-again failed at predicting the future. (Planes will keep getting smaller until flying cars are here, CPUs will grow at 2x/yr, Democracy is inevitable, and more things that never happened)


Both are impossible to criticize, in that same way that a startup that doesn't exist is impossible to criticize. Your analogies to religions and pseudo religions (Communism) are spot on. "Everything will make sense during the inevitable judgement day / when we have achieved true communism / when we have achieved equity / when AGI is finally here.". They are all the same thing.


For a movement so rooted in math, you'd think that they would have the humility to not look for a closed-form-solution to what is likely a non-convex problem. Small steps, gradient descent and slow progress is the only thing that sort-of-works.


There is certain irony to me suggesting that the only solution that has ever worked well for human systems is the exact algorithm being used to train massive AI models. So maybe the AGI-fearmongers have a point after all /s? .