They also have him on tape showing a writer and book publisher a 'plan of attack' on 'Country A' and then bemoaning the fact that he didn't declassify it while he was president.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Yeah I don't think this interview added much evidence other than that other people on the car were scared. The fact that she brought up him throwing his jacket and not any other instance of trash throwing may suggest he wasn't throwing anything particularly injurious.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Ummm, I've had sex wearing and not wearing a condom and it's noticeably different. Sex with a condom on is still great and guys who pressure women by claiming it's awful are shitty but no, it's definitely not identical.
Yeah so we're in agreement, it's not actually about fertility it's about the belief that transness is fake.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Does it grant them the right to terminate parental rights or just the ability to award custody between the two parents?
I'm not a lawyer and it remains unclear to me whether something like a petition to terminate parental rights brought by the minor, or a child in need of protective services action brought by a state agency is a subcategory of a "custody proceeding" that Minnesota now claims temporary emergency jurisdiction over, or a separate legal proceeding this law would not give them jurisdiction over. There would then need to be a second step where, refusing to give a child gender-affirming care was considered grounds for terminating rights or a CPS action in an otherwise non-abusive home.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I'm not trying to make a statement about the current state of British media, just calling out a poor argument. That the BBC doesn't do something (call the queen a cunt) that almost every media organization, even those not in the UK, voluntarily refrains from doing, does not provide much evidence of the level of editorial control that parliament exercises.
Any publicly traded media company would also have no individual who could call the queen a cunt without being punished by the board. If the entire board decided to call the queen a cunt on the front page they could probably be sued by share holders for damaging the company. Theoretically you could coordinate all the shareholders to approve, but that's implausible and I'm not sure why that should be a meaningful distinction between company's.
The point is 'ability to say whatever you want' doesn't practically exist at most major news companies and if you want to say the BBC as 'state owned media' is categorically different from a publicly traded American news company in a significant way you need a better example.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Yeah that's my point. Why would gay/trans people support bans on 'sexualized' drag performances when straight conservatives will get to decide which performances are sexualized and they think drag is inherently sexual.
I don't go to drag shows and don't really see the appeal but Andrew Sullivan, an old school non-woke gay, doesn't think they're inherently sexual.
https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/drag-queen-conservatism-eb1
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
We're social animals so there's lots of evolutionary utility from being able to predict other people's actions and accurately modeling other people's internal states would be helpful for that.
Sure I'm not big on metaphysics. I think labels are about communicating useful information not cosmic essences. But I think in most cases the useful information to communicate is the social role a person is presently occupying not their birth sex. I think trans inclusive language in medical contexts is pretty dumb because the anatomical details are relevant there, but in most social contexts expected presentation and mannerism are the relevant content of the gendered label.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Yeah we're making different arguments. He seems to be focused on the issue of deception, with the idea that trans racial people are trying to deceive others about their biology while trans gender people acknowledge their biology is different by affixing trans as an adjective. It's a weird argument that's pretty orthogonal to what's actually contested.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Yes broadly acquiring undervalued people is good. Identifying that a single demographic is undervalued doesn't mean that you can then build an entire team out of that demographic because the demographic could be small enough that there aren't enough of them in the right tail of the distribution to build a dominant team.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
It's not the ability to generate hate speech that would make a racist harassment chatbot-GPT effective, it's the ability to generate normal use of whatever platform reliably enough to avoid detection as a bot combined with the ability to also do racist harassment on cue. Copy-paste spambot gets banned, GPT-bot can pass as a normal commenter then harass whoever its creator wants.
But yeah the real risk isn't that it would actually succeed, but that someone would tarnish Open AI's reputation by using it to create a failed version that gets caught and then turned into a big media story
Ecgtheow
9mo ago
Then why do men struggle to find women who want to be homemakers?
My answer is people are status seeking and prefer to marry within their class. Middle and upper class women have unprecedented career opportunities in a society where status comes from career rather than family. The absolute standard of living for home makers has never been higher but the opportunity cost of motherhood is also at an all time high. Lower class women don't face the same opportunity costs but upper and middle class men don't want to marry lower class women and deindustrialization destroyed the ability of lower class men to support a family.
Ecgtheow
10mo ago
Could you specify where in the FBI reports they discuss this. Your link goes to a list of forty multi-page PDF's.
I think this is the part of Comey's statement where he discusses the issue
For example, seven e-mail chains concern matters that were classified at the Top Secret/Special Access Program level when they were sent and received. These chains involved Secretary Clinton both sending e-mails about those matters and receiving e-mails from others about the same matters.
He says 'concern matters' rather than 'contain materials' which seems to imply a discussion of something classified Special Access rather than the transmission of the special access materials themselves.
Ecgtheow
10mo ago
But this is fairly easily defeated by pointing out that in 1933 no-one had recently tried to genocide the Jews, but this time they actually were. The fact that systematic extermination hadn't been seen before was insufficient defence against it happening in 1933, and so by analogy it's no defence against it happening to whites in 2023.
I'm not a big fan of the 'holocaust means Israel gets to do settler colonialism' argument but your argument is either trivial or really bad. If your point is "an unprecedented thing happened once, therefore the probability of it happening again is not 0", then sure, but that doesn't tell us anything about what the actualy probability is. If your point is the probability of Jews getting genocided in 1930's Germany is similar to the probability of whites being genocided in 2020's America that's ridiculous. Just the difference in population share should be enough to indicate the situation is wildly different before we even get into the waves of pogroms that swept Eastern Europe during the Russian Revolution and the relative recency of Jewish legal equality in Germany.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
The top public donors to the Pacific Legal fund which championed the case are the Dunn Family Foundation for The Advancement of Right Thinking and the Sarah Scaife Foundation. The Dunn's run a capital management firm and Sarah Scaife is the niece of Andrew Mellon. I don't think they're personally billionaires but they probably have net worths in the hundred millions and manage family foundations.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Southern State Legislatures were the ones making Jim Crow laws, why didn't they increase the sentences?
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Yes, but as well know from British period dramas like Bridgerton the black share of the population was much higher back then and that it explains crime rates /s
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I don't know much about child custody law, but that section reads to me a establishing jurisdiction for the state of Minnesota to do a child custody determination. Does it necessarily follow from them having the jurisdiction to determine custody that they would refuse to return a runaway minor?
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
The state put its thumb on a scale by making sure it was an all-white jury in a majority black area.
Yeah, there is a general stance from the left that if black people commit racially charges crime it's best not to comment but if white people do that is worth commenting on. I don't think this is based on belief in a racial caste system where black people have a socially understood right to kill white people without punishment. I think it's the belief that state can be trusted to punish black criminals who kill white people but might let white people off the hook. The black shooter in that case is in custody while white shooter in Missouri went free on bail. I think this is an outdated assumption and they'll both be punished but this historical distrust of the state to punish white perpetrators is why Biden called and not a belief that the shooter had a social right to kill black people. If you want to make a wager about whether that shooter will serve more jail time than Emmett Till's killers I'd be interested.
The statement you pointed to as evidence of individual leniency for killers of an Asian child previously turned out to be a blanket statement about treatment of non murder/sex crime felonies. Where is the explicit statement of preference of lesser charges for black kids rather than general soft on crime liberalism?
I don't know what the fuck is going on in Chicago and SF generally and I think they're being way too soft on people. But the examples of leniency you've brought up are a white on white homeless guy and gang violence in Chicago which I presume is black on black. This is all bad, but it does not amount to a racial caste system.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Oh yeah, I guess I spent too much time looking up crime data and missed Lester making a recovery. Glad to hear the kid survived and that the collapsed society this old man lives in hasn't had a murder this year!
I'll let you get back to inventing insults and not addressing my central argument.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Yes, the Catholic's are boosting it to cover up the release of the report about the Maryland Archdiocese covering up child molesting priests that came out last week.
Yeah could be, I wonder if there's FTM crime data available.
There's three FTM mass shooters that we know of, trans people are ~0.4% of the population (though probably a larger share of young people who do mass shootings) so you'd expect 240 cis shooters per trans shooter. How many mass shootings we've had varies based on the casualty threshold you use. The Gun Violence Archive uses 'four or more people killed or injured' which means there's 300-700 mass shootings a year. Everytown only counts incidents where four people were killed excluding the shooter and finds 20-30 mass shootings a year.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
In the Kindle Unlimited world there are really low barriers to entry for publishing. If someone could make a lot of money publishing books other publisher's wouldn't they'd be doing that.
I'd say it's a "publisher pull" effect where if you're a sci-fi publisher and you're looking at a world where women account for 80% of fiction sales you really want to raise the profile of works catering to women in your genre in hopes of attracting a larger audience.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I am not an expert on how the Dodd Frank Act Stress Test is conducted and I don't know whether it would have caught this. Forbes says that "will we get fucked if the fed raises rates" is a basic scenario they should have been testing for and that they were exempt from disclosing whether they had enough high quality liquid assets to cover 30 days of distressed cash flow. I don't know whether the standard definition of distressed cash flow includes this sort of bank run. I suspect someone who is an expert on all this will do a big analysis in the next week or so.
I'm suggesting that the VC & startups were not maximally risk averse in their banking selection. Even if you think regulation adds no security, "hey let's put all our money in a bank specializing in one industry" seems obviously more risky than "let's deposit in a massive diversified bank like BoA. The idea that because The Narrow Bank was shut down they had no safer option than SVB doesn't make much sense to me.
That would be news to Trump who is on tape on page 15 of the Indictment complaining that the plan to invade an unnamed country (probably Iran) he just 'found' is still classified so he can't use it to refute Mark Miley's claims that Trump wanted to Invade.
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