Ecgtheow
1yr ago
If there are uncaptured publishers, and massive demand for male oriented fiction that is not being served, why haven't these uncaptured publishers gobbled up market share? Who do you think is an uncaptured publisher?
If there are a bunch of genius male authors being suppressed why don't they put their stuff on Kindle or Fanfiction.net and go viral? A fair number of female authors have turned viral fanfic into successful novels.
And you still haven't explained the gender disparity in fanfic where no barriers to entry exist.
You're assuming the causation is that publisher's are captured so audience's become female but if our only evidence is timing the causation could run the other way. As audiences become more female publisher's cater to female preferences, and women are disproportionately woke. This explanation fits better with the efficient market hypothesis and so I think has Occam on its side.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Yes, Trump's stolen election claims are best read as a move to salvage his position with the conservative base rather than to hold on to power. Everyone hates losers, the Dem's ditched Hillary when she lost, R's turned on Romney.
Trump set it up so that other Republicans would 'stab him in the back' rather than personally taking drastic action. He said Mike Pence had some ability to throw out the electoral count, he didn't try to use executive agencies to seize voting machines. Now it's an article of faith with the base that he was robbed so he's set up to run again which is pretty unprecedented in recent political history.
Ecgtheow
10mo ago
Did he do fraud? He plead guilty to failure to pay, but not evasion. They're not alleging he set up some illegal shell companies to hide his income, just that he didn't pay what he owed.
The game theory about how to punish attempted fraud vs. late payments seem meaningfully different.
Ecgtheow
10mo ago
Sure, but are trans people claiming to literally have wombs and produce eggs or are they claiming to be their preferred gender for all socially relevant intents and purposes? A step-father who is closely involved in his wife's kids life from a young age does have lived experience as a father. If you exclude him from father-daugher themed events or correct his kids whenever they call him dad are you standing up for scientific accuracy or being a jerk?
Ecgtheow
10mo ago
On page 15 they have him on tape bemoaning the fact that he didn't declassify the plan of attack on a foreign country.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Is Trump only getting roughly 440 miles of border wall constructed a story of deep state subversion or the constitutional order functioning properly and the president being unable to build large infrastructure projects without congressional support. Trump only got a small congressional authorization for the Wall, roughly 1.5 billion. He tried to fund the rest with money authorized for military construction and drug interdiction and got held up in court with legal battles. Biden won and undid the reallocation of DoD funds to the border wall.
That's what typically happens when the president tries to govern by executive order, he's hampered by lawsuits and undone by the next president.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Eh, I have the opposite aesthetic preference. I wasn't raised on the KJV so when I hear verses I know with the Ye's it feels kind of cringe and ren faire-y.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Right, which is why you shouldn't escalate a confrontation unless it's necessary to prevent imminent violence. If this guy was about the attack someone and he intervened imperfectly then it's self defense gone wrong. If he was simply spouting profanities and throwing (non-injurious) trash then the person who decide to escalate the confrontation to physical violence shoulders the legal risks of that violence going wrong.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I don't think the constitutionality has much to do with what I'm arguing. If you're saying that this change in public opinion was imposed top down then you have to explain how, in a democratic society, people holding those views got to the top in order to impose them in the first place. The Supreme Court you can play the 'activist judges' card but legislation and presidential actions are harder to explain that way.
I'm totally fine with the old fashioned arguments that this is a sort of tyranny of the majority unconstitutionally trampling regional peculiarities and freedom of assembly. That's well trod ground. I just think it's shit social history to explain massive changes in social attitudes as top down action of a mysterious elite.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Pre Urbanization
I want to fuck men
Don't be gay pervert
Die in 300 person village like my ancestors
After Urbanization
I want to fuck men
Move to city
Find semi-secret urban gay community
Get death penalty for sodomy
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I live in a city of roughly 500k with a murder rate 2.5x the national average and a reputation for meth. I feel very safe in the neighborhood of detached single family homes on the good side of the city I live in. There are areas of the city where I work that are pretty unsafe and I feel and behave very differently there but I know the difference.
I appreciate you sharing your experience but I'm pointing at maps of homicides from 2021, 2022, & 2023 where very few happen in or near Nashua and I don't think you can just shrug that off with "things feel different". Do we have some reason to expect the spatial distribution of stabbing and beatings would be very different from murder?
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Yes there are forms of incompetence that have severe consequences and which people need to be fired for. I don't think this is such a case, you may think it is, but it's still not a conspiracy to corrupt the youth.
What is the harm done to a 12 year old when they see Michelangelo's David? Are the 49/50 parents who said they're totally fine with their kids seeing this sculpture abusive parents authorizing the school to harm their child?
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
If a cis woman wore a loose fitting no cleavage pink dress with a shawl-cape type and heels I don't think she would be dressed too sexily to be around children. Is "It's okay to be different" an inherently sexual book?
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I just think it's unlikely that a large market with low barriers to entry maintains a large inefficiency like that. If you look at Fanfiction where there's no barrier to entry and no gatekeepers the vast majority of writers and readers appear to be women. That can't be explained by ideological capture of Fanfiction.net or something.
It seems plausible to me that there are gendered differences in entertainment preferences. Are men overrepresented in video games because of ideological capture of gaming studios or because of male preference for competition. Perhaps women are over presented in fiction reading because the competitive edge of the novel over other storytelling media is long form character study which appeals more to women?
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Just going through Chicago mayoral election results since Daley was first elected
1955: 1,290,000 votes cast Daley wins 54-45
1959 1,090,000.votes cast Daley wins 71-28
1963 1,220,000 votes cast Daley wins 55-44
1967 1,084,000 votes cast Daley wins 73-25
1971: 1,056,000 votes cast Daley wins 70-30
1975: 698,000 votes cast Daley wins 77-19
1977: special election cause Daley died: 634,000 votes cast, Bilandic (D) wins 77-21
1979: 854,000 votes cast Byrne (D) wins 82-16
The FBI finds tons of fraudulent ballots in the 1982 federal election, this could be breakpoint though I don't know exactly when reforms in response to this went into effect
1983: 1,290,000 votes cast, Washington (D) wins 51-48
1987 1,160,000 votes cast Washington (D) wins 53-42
1989 Special Election Cause Washington died: 1,040,000 votes cast, Daley Jr. (D) wins 55-41
1991: 637,000 votes cast, Daley Jr. (D) wins 71-26
1995 598,000 votes cast, Daley Jr. (D) wins 60-36
1999: 595,000 votes cast, Daley Jr. (D) wins 71-28.
You're suggesting that a ~10% decline in voter turnout would be a good indication that the machine stopped working, but that roughly the same number of people voted so it was will still working. But there was a massive surge in voting after 1982 not a collapse. Does that mean the machine faked more votes than ever, or that people who had given up started to believe elections were fair and turned out to vote.
I don't know but it just doesn't seem like raw vote totals are a good indication of whether "a machine" is in operation. The lowest total votes cast seem to coincide with the largest margins for the incumbent.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
This survives reversal somewhat better but not all that well, it wasn't just some weird arbitrary coincidence that pretty much every culture in the world had mothers as primary caregivers and despite the artificial roadblocks men do still out earn women
I don't think you overcame that objection. We aren't an agricultural or early industrial society where male physical strength is determinant of earnings. Men out earn women but it's not that big and gets tiny if you control for years of experience and willingness to work overtime, the stuff women give up if they become mothers.
It can be true that satisfaction from raising kids is higher for women then for men and so it makes sense for most households to have women be the primary caretaker. But it doesn't follow that satisfaction from raising kids + satisfaction from delayed career > satisfaction from immediately pursued career for the majority of women. TFR seems to be lower among educated women with good job prospects improve which suggests to me women are not irrationally deluded but correctly optimizing for life satisfaction. Asking women to unilaterally lower their happiness because it's historical tradition doesn't seem like a successful strategy for raising fertility.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
People training a chatbot have a very good reason to get the AI to value language taboos over the lives of millions, it will never actually makes life-saving decisions but it will generate a lot of speech. A chatbot that can generate personalized hate speech at scale would make the internet a much less pleasant place, but a chatbot that would rather kill a million people than say the N-word just produces absurd responses to hypothetical scenarios.
Whatever AI is actually in charge of disarming bombs or flying planes won't be producing speech at scale and so the incentives to train it to be so overly deferential to speech norms won't exist.
Ecgtheow
9mo ago
Then why do men struggle to find women who want to be homemakers?
My answer is people are status seeking and prefer to marry within their class. Middle and upper class women have unprecedented career opportunities in a society where status comes from career rather than family. The absolute standard of living for home makers has never been higher but the opportunity cost of motherhood is also at an all time high. Lower class women don't face the same opportunity costs but upper and middle class men don't want to marry lower class women and deindustrialization destroyed the ability of lower class men to support a family.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
George W. Bush went to Yale and he was famously seen as an idiot by the left in the 2000's merely because he had a few malapropisms and committed the largest foreign policy blunder in my lifetime. If your family is loaded and you're not an eloquent speaker people will assume that your degree wasn't really earned. The right is similarly dismissive of Jill Biden's PhD because she got it after Joe became a senator.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Was there a time in history when the art that was championed by elites was also popular with the masses? I genuinely don't know. Renaissance artists never had the chance for economic reasons. Picasso and Monet were successful in their time but were they successful among non-art snobs of their time? Was there some period where the mass public and the art establishment agreed or has the mass public just accepted the past judgement of art establishments from centuries ago because old things are classy.
I don't think the issue with the MLK sculpture is that it's meant to be transgressive or groundbreaking. It's Martin and Coretta embracing, it has a straightforward meaning. The artists just did a bad job of considering what their sculpture would look like from all angles and the people involved in the procurement process didn't push back. That one seems like more of an indictment of city purchasing processes than the art establishment.
Ecgtheow
11mo ago
Yes, but as well know from British period dramas like Bridgerton the black share of the population was much higher back then and that it explains crime rates /s
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I know that you want to believe this, but the evidence seems to suggest the opposite. They were immediately arrested, suggesting that kidnapping was not acceptable.
They were acquitted by an all white Jury suggesting they correctly predicted that they did not need to hide their identities because it was acceptable to the people who would be in the jury. They were not punished.
In the case of the Fire Chief they dropped charges because he claims to have used pepper spray in self defense on the man who beat him, but there's video of someone who looks like him using bear spray on a sleeping homeless person. The fire chief also won't testify in court, so the local prosecutor thinks they'll lose since the homeless person will claim self defence after being pepper sprayed on a public sidewalk. Both he and the transient appear white in the video. I'd like to see the local prosecutor be more aggressive but this doesn't seem like much of a case of a racial caste system.
There was a manhunt for the black man who fired at the white child grazing her cheek and police obtained warrants for counts of attempted murder first degree. He is in custody now. The white guy who shot the black teen and sent him to the hospital was allowed to go free on bail and has been charged with first degree assault. The legal system seems to have acted appropriately. Biden commented on the controversial case where someone was seriously injured and not on the uncontroversial case where someone was grazed.
The Alameda County DA issued a blanket memo (not benefiting any particular race) saying that prosecutors should not use sentence enhancements and seek the lowest available prison term, with an exception for sex crimes against children and murder. Jasper Wu's killers all have been charged with murder, shooting at an occupied vehicle, possession of a firearm and two of them with conspiracy to commit a crime and "criminal street gang conspiracy". Google says the penalty for murder in CA is 25 years to life, so not exactly non-carceral.
The second paragraph of your 'mutual conflict' story says three charges were brought on one of the individuals involved and the State's Attorney says that the didn't invoke mutual conflict and CPD mischaracterized them. I'm don't know much about how self defense rights work in the case of large gun battles but it seems complicated to resolve who is the aggressor and who is legally defending themselves without video footage.
These are generic soft on crime stuff and not evidence of a contemporary racial caste system.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I suppose there are hypothetical populations of uniformly idiotic demon spawn where that would be the case. In really existing America early desegregation of industry took place to increase defense production not because of widespread adoption of egalitarian views. In general reallocating labor from agriculture to industry was a winning strategy in the 20th century and segregation was an impediment to this reallocation of labor.
If you think that markets are generally better at allocating labor than governments then you might predict that de jure segregation would generally have high costs.
Leaning on the owner is usually a second degree boycott though. We can't directly boycott x because we aren't its consumer base, but we are the consumer base for company y that works with x and we can threaten to boycott y if they don't boycott x. It's still a sort of social shunning rather than a direct censorship.
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