Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I don't think defection is a meaningful concept in a scenario premised on pure competition where leveraging every (legal) advantage to the hilt is the expected behavior. If KC scores to maximize entertainment value their fans would be furious and Andy Reid's game management would be roasted in the media. Usage of that tactic was already expected, in 2011 (I think) the giants tried to do a similar maneuver but their running back couldn't stop in time and awkwardly fell over into the end zone instead of at the 1.
The only optimal unsportsmanlike tactic that is still stigmatized in football is that lineman are expected to not really try in kneel down situations. Greg Schiano got everybody mad at him a few years back because he coached his player's to go all out even in kneel down scenarios because there was a tiny chance the QB might fumble the snap and they could get it. He is part of the larger trend of College Coaches failing in the NFL because 20 year olds on a scholarship will do whatever you tell them but 30 year old lineman being paid millions don't want to take unnecessary injury risks on the miniscule chance the QB fumbles.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I don't think the push from behind will get banned until someone gets injured doing it. Just seems too easy for someone to get their leg tangled up and pushed forward the wrong way. Also it basically forces the defense to try to leap the pile. The whole thing adds a lot of injury risks and the NFL is trying to reduce that.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
If you make motherhood and career as incompatible as possible don't you run the obvious risk of lots of women choosing careers over motherhood? You'd end up with lots of educated women disincentivized from having kids since once they do their career is over/paused until their kids are teenagers since they can't hire a nanny affordably. Low education women are more willing to do that, but the issue is that people tend to marry people of similar education and you'd have to give pretty massive subsidy to young couples for a low education man to be able to support multiple dependents comfortably.
I'd be kind of worried about a society where all the high income/prestige careers are occupied by childless educated couples and low education married couples with multiple dependents where women can't divorce or else they're impoverished.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
The "vibe shift" is a product of the center-left having won political power while feeling that it could have won more power if it weren't for the young left going all in on "defund the police" and other woke excesses. During Trump's presidency, the dem base was totally addicted to a constant stream of outrage over whatever Trump did that day. In those conditions, it's hard to get anyone on the left to care about the excesses of wokeness because Trump did something worse in their minds every day. Now he's out of the picture, people are kind of looking back on what happened during the summer of 2020 and cringing, and the center left has an opportunity to squash some of the grifters and radicals.
This is a backlash led by center left so they're not going to repeal most of the gains of "wokeness", they're still going to be broadly pro-trans and concerned about gender and racial disparities in a way that most of this site finds objectionable. But they're going to try to push back on the stupid stuff that hurts them, like trans activists demanding everyone boycott a nostalgic video game with positive trans representation because JKR said stuff they don't like.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I think The Last of Us is almost right wing in that so far it's largely about the necessity of restricting your circle of empathy to an extremely small group of found family. Many Left wing projects rely on group solidarity and extending empathy to the other but all large scale cooperative groups in TLOU (so far) are authoritarian and dysfunctional and the main character eschews involvement with them in favor of protecting his (found) nuclear family.
Heck, even the gay love story in Epsiode 3 takes this form. Nick Offerman's as character is sitting on a tremendous amount of resources that could presumably be used to help others but him fencing it all off so that he can live in comparative luxury with his lover is heroism. There's even a bit in Offerman's character's letter to Joel about men finding purpose as protectors (of specific individual not a group), which is a conservative value.
I don't think the creators of TLOU are ideologically right wing, just that the post apocalyptic genre plus individualistic culture lends itself to that sort of story. A small set of characters set against the world of fascists and raiders is more compelling than a large commune of reasonable people figuring out how to do agriculture and rebuild generators in the post apocalypse.
Women's decisions are the big change but women's behavior is downstream of massive change to economic conditions. Gender norms that evolved in economic conditions where women were economically dependent on men, and where the opportunity cost of child raising was small aren't going to survive in a deindustrialized economy where nurses out earn factory workers.
Being the primary caretaker of children, as most wives end up doing, is a really bad career decision. You're committing to a part time job that doesn't build skills you can use in other careers, and you can't move easily between "employers"/husbands. Unlike other jobs where success increases your choice of employers, being a 10x mother probably isn't going to help you land the hot rich doctor if your husband turns out to be a wreck. Furthermore you're expected to make this long term choice at a young age with limited ability to predict the course of your partners future life.
Is signing a 20 year contract with a non-compete clause to do ~30 hours of unskilled work a week for a similarly aged peer in exchange for a share of their future earnings an advisable career choice? Only if you think their future income is much larger than yours would be if you pursued your own career.
Traditional cultures evolved in settings where men's superior strength at manual labor was really important and domestic labor was a time consuming full time job. Now it's not obvious that men always have higher earnings potential, domestic labor has been largely automated, and the nuclear family model means stay at home moms are often isolated. Travel and entertainment is cheap, healthcare education and housing are expensive. For educated people social status comes from career achievement, and available careers can be highly stimulating and meaningful rather than rote drudgery. The opportunity cost of motherhood gets larger and larger and so unsurprisingly fewer women are choosing it.
If the opportunity cost of marriage and motherhood relative to singledom keeps getting higher and higher is it unsurprising women have higher and higher standards for men? If cultural and gender norms evolved under conditions with massive disparities in economic power would we expect them to change if economic power equalized? Aren't men going to have to 'sweeten the pot' and offer a better deal in order to get women to sign that long term childcare contract?
My read on this is that economic power shapes relationships. We have millennia of human cultural evolution where men have had way more economic power and that has shaped the cultural models for relationships between men and women. Now that we have a few decades where economic power has been somewhat equalized those norms are going to start shifting slowly but surely. The question isn't why has women's behavior changed, that's obvious, it's how will men's behavior change to adapt.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Well so far no one who actually is a father appears to have responded but a lot of people reported to the mods. That's pretty funny, though I expect eventually a father will respond. Has there been a demographic survey recently, does it ask about children?
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
This survives reversal somewhat better but not all that well, it wasn't just some weird arbitrary coincidence that pretty much every culture in the world had mothers as primary caregivers and despite the artificial roadblocks men do still out earn women
I don't think you overcame that objection. We aren't an agricultural or early industrial society where male physical strength is determinant of earnings. Men out earn women but it's not that big and gets tiny if you control for years of experience and willingness to work overtime, the stuff women give up if they become mothers.
It can be true that satisfaction from raising kids is higher for women then for men and so it makes sense for most households to have women be the primary caretaker. But it doesn't follow that satisfaction from raising kids + satisfaction from delayed career > satisfaction from immediately pursued career for the majority of women. TFR seems to be lower among educated women with good job prospects improve which suggests to me women are not irrationally deluded but correctly optimizing for life satisfaction. Asking women to unilaterally lower their happiness because it's historical tradition doesn't seem like a successful strategy for raising fertility.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Obviously being a wife/mother in a loving relationship is very different from being a long term childcare provider/domestic worker. I'm trying to illustrate motherhood's consequences for women's career trajectories/economic circumstances and in that way it's roughly analogous to signing a long term contract to provide childcare care with a non-compete.
Many, probably most, women want a loving relationship and children and are willing to pay a cost in terms of income and future career prospects in order to have them. Men pay a large cost in terms of income and autonomy to have children, as well. But if you're trying to explain the change in time in women's fertility preferences it's worth noting that the change in women's career prospects, and this the opportunity cost of motherhood, coincidences with the fall in TFR.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
NFL players take the Wonderlic test during the draft and as an avid NFL fan no one talks about it as a meaningful indicator in interviews or analysis. You can look up QB Wonderlic scores they vary wildly Peyton Manning got a 28, Mahomes got a 24, Brady got a 33, Harvard Grad and style icon Ryan Fitzpatrick got a 48.
I would expect the correlation between general intelligence and outcome to shrink if you're only sampling people who are dramatic outliers at a very narrow subset of intelligence. Which is to say that I don't think it's IQ rising to the top.
QB is an odd position where your chances to actually get experience in live reps is pretty limited. There are only so many snaps in practice and during games and only 1/22 people involved can practice that skill. You can get better at throwing and watching film but the key skill of reading defenses from the pocket is hard to acquire without organized large scale practices that require 21 other players to not be QB's.
For this reason it seems totally plausible to me that there's an early filter in QB development, where kids trying to play QB for the first time are going to be outcompeted for practice snaps by kids whose parents could pay for them to start playing football earlier or to attend football camps. Or who just had parents who could coach them up enough that they could win the initial practice snaps and improve.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
No I think they're doing it for the same reason all sorts of socialization is falling. Dating, going to church, joining a bowling league, requires upfront investment for uncertain return in the future. Church is super boring, most dates end in rejection, the other guys at the bowling league aren't actually that interesting. Opening up your phone to scroll social media, jack off, argue with the exact sort of online weirdo you like arguing with gives consistent instantaneous positive reward for minimal expenditure of time, money effort.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I appreciate the comment.
I agree a long term childcare contract is a very different thing from a loving marriage, which has a variety of financial, psychological, and spiritual benefits. But the cost splitting benefits you bring up don't require having children and sacrificing careers. Specializing in childcare and domestic labor to support someone else's career only confers stability and "retirement benefits" if you correctly identify someone with high earning potential & stability. That means delaying marriage until a similarly aged man is credentialed, or marrying an older man which many women are uncomfortable with.
But even if the benefits of marriage are larger than the contract analogy portrays I think the key point is that the change over time in the "opportunity cost" women pay up front is increasing and the benefits are constant (if not falling due to the Baumol making everything needed for children expensive and living single and traveling the world cheap).
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I would know, I personally do nearly all of them each week while working from home just during calls.
I mean the advent of work from home is relatively recent and has the potential to increase fertility among educated people. Even if directly caring for the child is not time consuming you still have to be physically away from work to do it.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
My anti AGI doom spiral thought is just; sometimes things grow exponentially, sometimes they're S-curves. Just cause you're in the vertical part doesn't mean it won't turn out to be an S-curve.
Elites and government leaders organize to influence cultural production in the private sphere, the cathedral strikes again!
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Or a publisher wanting to create a reason why everyone needs to buy a new copy of a book that's been in print forever.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
I didn't think Carmy had a toxic personality at all. The issue is more that he's coming in to a low end environment as the new boss and trying to get everyone there to hold themselves to a higher standard and change the way they do things and that's always a recipe for conflict. They don't fight him cause he's a toxic man they fight him because he's trying to change things from how they've always been done. His cousin is the much more stereotypically toxic man. Carmy turned into a sex symbol because of his amazing hair and intensity so I don't think the public judgement of him was a 'toxic' man.
The meltdown scene was great. There are time when you can totally be 'in the right' and other people have fucked up but part of good leadership is just understanding it's more important to keep everyone else functional than take out your own stress on them. Sydney's had his back the whole time and believes in his vision more then anyone else but she creates this massive crisis because she doesn't toggle one setting in their online order system. He's understandably furious but it's not a reason to lose confidence in her as a chef and when he takes it out on her, she feels betrayed because she's had his back in all the internal conflicts. So she takes it out on the baker guy and then melts down. Carmy is totally in the right, it's just everyone involved is stressed out and at each others throats and it would take superhuman self-control to handle that situation calmly.
But that's the point of his season long arc. Their restaurant is this deeply dysfunctional mess of weird arrangements with loansharks, deals with low level mob dudes, and random family and friends who do odd jobs. Carmy can't let it go even though it's driving him nuts because of his relationship to his brother. He wants to avoid perpetuating the abusive work culture he encountered in high end kitchens, but the stress of running this thing is such that he's inevitably going to lash out at the people who work for him. He can't win because the business is fucked and he needs to move on and do his own thing.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
The audience for newspaper comics is old. Unlike tech where good programmers and creatives have lots of sway writers for regional newspapers are constantly being laid off so audience demands are important than staff demands. Therefore Adams has to do something management anticipates will be objectionable to it's boomer audience rather than to a staff of college educated millennials before cancelling him.
The fact that chronic pain is so well correlated with aging suggests that for the majority of people there is some underlying physical degeneration coupled with a culturally/psychologically mediated experience of pain. It's possible we're spreading cultural memes about aging that causes old people to hyperfixate on minor and aches and pains but the cultural universality of old people's body's hurting makes that seem iffy to me. It could be that technological advances of having pain treatments available primes people to fixate on total pain alleviation and medical treatments while past generations would simply learned to tolerate the unchangeable pain.
I know an old hippie lady who had chronic back pain that kept her in bed a lot. She loves to tell the story of how she 'cured' it by meditating intensely, talking to the pain in the form of a wol, and fully internalizing the idea that it was a part of her body trying to protect her not a sign she was being harmed. She's relatively mobile in day to day life and in some sense was healed, but she's still an old lady and moves gingerly and there's no way she could work in a warehouse or something. That's to say that there's substantial mobility and pain reduction to be gained through psychologically and culturally mediating pain like that but, not infinite improvement in most cases. Even when pain has identifiable biological causes there's still a lot of reduction that can be accomplished through psychological means.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
From the linked NYT article
According to the lawsuit, the protesters arrested in the Bronx were surrounded by police officers before an 8 p.m. curfew and prevented from leaving
It does seem like the sort of technicality that could win you a lawsuit if you were arrested for failing to comply with a curfew you were prevented from complying with. That said I haven't carefully read the lawsuit and don't know how accurate the NYT's summary is.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Singal is on Twitter arguing it's entirely plausible that a Tumblr addled teen said something silly around a case worker. I agree that seems possible, but the bigger issue seems to be that they said that psychological services were rarely provided in and never in an ongoing manner while those parents say that their children had twenty appointments. It doesn't seem like Reed provided a good characterization of the services the clinic offered.
It would be nice to have good statistics on this stuff but medical privacy laws make it unlikely. I also would be nervous about building a database of trans teens when Texas and now possibly Florida are trying to make gender affirming care grounds for losing custody.
Do we have a good way of knowing about what happens inside medical clinics besides testimony from staff/patients?
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Yeah but didn't the decline of the black family occur before the rise of gangster rap? The Moynihan report on the decline of the black family is from 1965 and gangster rap seems like a late 80's early 90's phenomenon.
Integration and the loss of the 'talented tenth' could be a piece of it but you just can't exclude deindustrialization. Small business wasn't the force that forged the black middle class, it was the desegregation of northern industry during WWII. The black family declines basically as soon as industry starts fleeing urban centers for greenfield sites and the sunbelt.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
If she's unfamiliar with you food is the main way to win trust and affection. Maybe make kibble available at all times and offer tastier food when you are present. Physical height can be a big factor in cat relationships, I have a very skittish cat and he gets scared of me when I'm standing up or walking briskly but will happily sit on my lap or let me pet him if I kneel.
I'd try feeding her some sort of gourmet canned food in a small room while you just lie on the floor and mess around on your phone or something. Look at her but don't stare and don't react if she comes close. Let her check you out and sniff you when you're on her level and not moving very much. When she gets comfortable hold your hand out and let her sniff it before petting her.
Ten months old is kind of a tricky age. Really little kittens you can just grab and pet and if you're persistent they'll ID you as their mom. That's probably not a good idea with her, it'll take a lot of patience.
Ecgtheow
1yr ago
Isn't the idea that gender is more biological than race an argument in favor of transgender being acceptable and transracial not being acceptable? Biology can be altered by taking hormones that have a variety of physiological and psychological effects. Get a dark spray tan and dreadlocks doesn't have the same sort of effect on the transitioning person's physiology and psychology.
That's something of a 'trans-medicalist' perspective, most trans activists wouldn't endorse the idea that you have to take HRT to be legitimately trans. I think that's mostly for 'big tent' solidarity reasons, most trans people won't shut up about how much hormone therapy changed them.
Yes broadly acquiring undervalued people is good. Identifying that a single demographic is undervalued doesn't mean that you can then build an entire team out of that demographic because the demographic could be small enough that there aren't enough of them in the right tail of the distribution to build a dominant team.
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