JhanicManifold
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User ID: 135
JhanicManifold
10mo ago
Get a meat thermometer and grill to 170F internal temperature. I mix 4 eggs, 2 cups panko bread crumbs, 1.3kg of extra lean beef, 3 tbsp smoked paprika, 2 tbsp garlic salt and 2 tbsp crushed oregano together into the burger paste, and they turn out great every time if grilled at around 450F. Spices don't burn if you mix them into the meat itself.
What GPT does is predict the next token. That's a simple statement with a great deal of complexity underlying it.
At least, that's the Outer Objective, it's the equivalent of saying that humans are maximising inclusive-genetic-fitness, which is false if you look at the inner planning process of most humans. And just like evolution has endowed us with motivations and goals which get close enough at maximising its objective in the ancestral environment, so is GPT-4 endowed with unknown goals and cognition which are pretty good at maximising the log probability it assigns to the next word, but not perfect.
GPT-4 is almost certainly not doing reasoning like "What is the most likely next word among the documents on the internet pre-2021 that the filtering process of the OpenAI team would have included in my dataset?", it probably has a bunch of heuristic "goals" that get close enough to maximising the objective, just like humans have heuristic goals like sex, power, social status that get close enough for the ancestral environment, but no explicit planning for lots of kids, and certainly no explicit planning for paying protein-synthesis labs to produce their DNA by the buckets.
There are a few ways that GPT-6 or 7 could end humanity, the easiest of which is by massively accelerating progress in more agentic forms of AI like Reinforcement Learning, which has the "King Midas" problem of value alignment. See this comment of mine for a semi-technical argument for why a very powerful AI based on "agentic" methods would be incredibly dangerous.
Of course the actual mechanism for killing all humanity is probably like a super-virus with an incredibly long incubation period, high infectivity and high death rate. You can produce such a virus with literally only an internet connection by sending the proper DNA sequence to a Protein Synthesis lab, then having it shipped to some guy you pay/manipulate on the darknet and have him mix the powders he receives in the mail in some water, kickstarting the whole epidemic, or pretend to be an attractive woman (with deepfakes and voice synthesis) and just have that done for free.
GPT-6 itself might be very dangerous on its own, given that we don't actually know what goals are instantiated inside the agent. It's trained to predict the next word in the same way that humans are "trained" by evolution to replicate their genes, the end result of which is that we care about sex and our kids, but we don't actually literally care about maximally replicating our genes, otherwise sperm banks would be a lot more popular. The worry is that GPT-6 will not actually have the exact goal of predicting the next word, but like a funhouse-mirror version of that, which might be very dangerous if it gets to very high capability.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
Why do you think that? This combination of features would be selected against in evolutionary terms, so it's not like we evidence from either evolution or humans attempting to make such a virus, and failing at it. As far as I can see no optimization process has ever attempted to make such a virus.
JhanicManifold
9mo ago
Yeah the pulsing patterns seem very specific, and are probably the entire technical moat of the company. The way it works is that there are a variety of "programs" on the app, so you have a "stress program" that lasts 15 min, which starts with short, intense pulses that get quicker and quicker, then you have a "calm program", a "sleep program", etc. The device modulates both the intensity and the frequency of the haptics over time depending on the program you chose.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
Short answer: it depends on how much cardio you're doing already. Cardio contributes to systemic fatigue, and too much of it will reduce your NEAT (Non-Exercise-Activity-Thermogenesis), basically you'll fidget less and be less inclined to take the stairs instead of the elevator, which will have a net-negative effect on caloric balance.
Very relevant video: Does More Cardio Equal More Weight Lost?
(and I'm very surprised by your 100cal per 2 miles walking number, I use this calculator for estimating walking calories, which gives me much higher numbers)
JhanicManifold
6mo ago
Doesn't Hamas put bases under hospitals specifically because of this? The two options are either to never bomb hospitals and hence to accept Hamas as the leader in-perpetuity of the region, or to give every available warning to the population to evacuate and then bomb the terrorist base...
JhanicManifold
10mo ago
My god, can you imagine the drama inside that tiny ship over the past days? I think I'd bet at 90% that the CEO is already long dead, killed by the 4 others in order to save oxygen. Two of the people are a father-son duo, and in a power struggle they might have killed the others too, knowing that they can only trust family. I really hope they find that thing so we get to know what actually happened.
JhanicManifold
9mo ago
I think I share a common preference among men that I’d rarely pass up on a hookup with an attractive woman but would probably not date a woman long-term who has slept around too much
I'd pass on even a hookup with an attractive woman who has had too many partners. Some character traits or behaviours lower a woman's attractiveness so much that she just drops below a critical level for me. For instance, if I see a woman being cruel to a child, she could look like Emily Ratajkowski, and I still wouldn't want to fuck her (or maybe at that point it wraps back around to hate-fucking, I'm not sure)
But yes, I think that casual sex unethical, because "casual sex" is for men what "friendzoned orbiters" is for women. In both cases only one party gets most of what they want: sex for men, emotional intimacy for women. In most real cases of friendzoned guys and girls having casual sex, no one is making it clear that the relationship has no chance of going further, both these situations are fundamentally consequences of power imbalances.
JhanicManifold
10mo ago
"You will not be punished for your sins, you will be punished by them"
Conversely, a good deed is its own reward, and a good conscience can really bring a lot of pleasure intrinsic to it.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
Do you think the COVID vaccine will literally take 5 years off most people's lives? There have been semaglutide studies going up to like 24 months without adverse effects for weight loss, and weaker stuff in the same GLP-1 class like liraglutide has been used for years. We might find negative effects later on, but In general, stuff that doesn't have massive negative effects in the medium term won't suddenly get massive negative effects in the long term.
And regardless of this, if any negative effects happen in 30 years, I fully expect future AI medicine to make them completely trivial.
Semaglutide works really, really fucking well.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
Here's gpt-4's answer, which isn't bad all things considered, not especially out-of-the-box necessarily, but it seems fairly competent to me. Though of course the implementation details are where the real problem lies.
JhanicManifold
1mo ago
I have, perhaps surprisingly, managed to make new close friends as a mid twenties guy. Here's the trick, you first say "hey bro (or girl I want as a friend), I really enjoyed talking to you at that thing that time, we should get coffee sometime, how's next thursday?". Next, you need to talk one-on-one, it's hard to make a new close friend when you're always in a group with them, and you need to (gradually) tell them some of your secrets, vulnerability is required for close friendship. Virtually everyone to whom you offer one of your small secrets will reciprocate with one of their own, and thus the friendship builds.
Then, once you've hung out a few times one on one, you hit them with a heartfelt "hey man, great hanging out today, this is kinda weird to say, but I want you to know that I'm really grateful to have you as a friend". Think of yourself, would you allow yourself to grow closer in friendship with someone you weren't sure wanted the same thing? Realising that someone you considered a close friend doesn't feel the same probably hurts at the same level as romantic rejection. That's why the earnest declaration that you consider them a close friend works so well, it alleviates their fear that their friendship will not be reciprocated. People do want close friends, they're just afraid to hope.
JhanicManifold
6mo ago
Ben Shapiro also makes the point that they drop "knock bombs" before the real bombs, the only purpose of those bombs is to shake the building to tell civillians to evacuate.
JhanicManifold
7mo ago
Buying it on indiamart.com from India pharmacies, I haven't really had problems with importing it in Canada
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
I might have fucked up one of the easier ones, but gotten avulse correctly. That would explain things if difficult questions are worth more.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
hmm, top 0.2% for me, I'm kind of surprised, I never made any explicit effort in all my english classes, and I'm not even a native speaker.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
Athens was filthy. Almost every building is completely covered in bad graffiti up to a certain height.
And don't forget the brothels... they're called "studios" there, and there was a truly surprising number of them when I went last summer.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
The recommended dosing has you slowly ramp up the dose over like 2 months until you get to the truly effective amounts. I suspect that you would get very large gastro-intestinal side-effects if you just went from 0 to the effective dose. Semaglutide also has a very long half-life of a week, so if you're injecting 1.0mg/week steadily, to get the same blood concentration with a single injection you'd need 2.0mg. I think it would be a fairly bad idea, there's a good chance that the diarrhea and vomiting you'd get would wipe out any mental benefits from the lack of hunger.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
Hmm, somehow I doubt that. It's not like all schoolgirls I pass by giggle, but it's happened like 3 times over the past month (I probably pass by more schoolgirls than you because I take the subway). But then I'm curious, what things did you notice in your case?
JhanicManifold
8mo ago
I am "out of the hole" in the sense that once you've lost all the weight, you can start eating at maintenance again, which is much easier than eating at a deep deficit. So pre-semaglutide my daily maintenance calories might have been like 3500, and I was eating at like 3600, very slowly gaining weight. During semaglutide I'm eating 2300, which is a very deep deficit, made much easier due to the appetite reduction. After semaglutide, my reduced body weight will push my maintenance calories at around 3000, which will be much easier to maintain, either with discipline or with low-dose semaglutide. I think that the state of being obese does some kind of permanent damage to appetite regulation, so that anyone who has ever been significantly overweight will basically need to be on some sort of permanent diet for the rest of their lives, and there's no scenario in which they eat "naturally" and don't gain all the weight back.
JhanicManifold
9mo ago
yeah I just use insulin needles from amazon, with alcohol prep pads. The only thing you can't get from amazon is bacteriostatic water, which is still over-the-counter, just not from amazon (I got it from here). Peptides in general are best stored dry in a freezer or fridge, but I keep them at room temperature away from the light, the tests I've seen don't really show any meaningful degradation in a few months. Though they start to degrade much faster once you add in water.
Another thing, you probably won't be able to just buy a month's supply, the minimum order quantity is 10 vials of 2mg, which comes in a prepackaged little box disguised as a chinese beauty mask. I don't think the supplier is set up to ship orders which aren't multiples of 10 vials.
JhanicManifold
9mo ago
Surprisingly, it kind of does! It felt to me like it helped me not think of work or other things while I'm going to sleep, the vibrations on your skin have a way of capturing attention very effectively. I tried it out for a few weeks after seeing it recommended here, but I'm now returning it, the difference just isn't that big for me, nowhere near the magnitude that the bedjet is making.
JhanicManifold
11mo ago
Yeah I wouldn't really trust the tests on that page too much, I took their IQ test and got 158 on it, which a ridiculous overestimation based on the previous tests I took, where I got like 135-140.
Oh it did for me, I still remember her reaction when she saw me for the first time in like 6 months: * looks at me, does a double take, eyes widen, face becomes fully red, furtive looks the whole evening *. I actually feel a little bit guilty about just how good revenge feels.
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