@Kevin_P's banner p

Kevin_P


				

				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users  
joined 2022 September 05 06:24:54 UTC
Verified Email

				

User ID: 470

Kevin_P


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 05 06:24:54 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 470

Verified Email

Here's an inverse conspiracy theory that's also technically a conspiracy: Flat Earthers don't exist.

It's held up as the archetypical example of conspiracy theory believers, but I'm convinced that pretty much everyone who expresses support for Flat Earth theories - well over 99% - is knowingly playing along in a giant hoax, for a sense of community and the amusement of getting ridiculous stories published in serious newspapers. (Some of them don't actually realise this and think that only they themselves are roleplayers while the rest of their group are serious).

I remember some posts at the previous place talking about an Islamist (Taliban?) leader that was radicalized when he studied in the US and was horrified by American attitudes to casual sex, homosexuality etc.

Does anyone remember the guy's name and have a link and/or more details?

What if they are millennial versions of Ted Kaczynski, taking the maximum expected-value path towards acquiring the capital to do a pivotal act?

Or maybe just taking the maximum expected-value path towards becoming insanely rich?

The collapse was dramatic but it's a consequence of the same high-risk strategy that had FTX valued at 32 billion USD a few months ago. If that's the upside then their actions can be rational even if the chance of success was quite low.

EDIT: Also SBF may have lost most of his money but according to this article he's still worth around $600 million US. So even if the company failed, rationalism still seems to have paid off for him personally.

I've read several times here that the climate forecast often described by news articles as "business as usual" (RCP8.5) is based on outdated assumptions and that actual emissions are already well below that forecast.

The explanations seem reasonable, but when I've tried to look for data to confirm / quantify it I havent had any luck.

Does anyone have a good source with numbers for forecast emissions from RCP8.5 (and possibly other forecast models) directly compared against actual emissions since the forecast was made?

I noticed that nobody has mentioned this yet so I'll throw it in for context: Margaret Thatcher abolished tenure in the UK back in the 1980s. The circumstances were pretty similar to today - the object-level issues were different but the basic layout of the situation was the same. It didn't create the sort of disaster that doomsayers are predicting but also do much to stop academics criticising the government, as far as I can tell things went on pretty much as they did before the change.

One big advantage is the thing most posts in the thread have been complaining about: The Algorithm (TM)

I'm going to go against the consensus here and say that I actually quite like the suggested videos page. The results are far from perfect but if a video appears on my homepage there's a better-than-even chance that it will be relevant to my interests, vs a roughly 0% chance for videos on the front page in incognito mode. And I don't think the results have got noticeably worse in recent months/years.

Logging in also gives you access to other features, including the subscriptions feed that shows you new videos from channels you've subscribed to, the ability to make comments (yes, youtube comments as a whole are trash, but there are still certain pockets that have value), and being able to give upvotes that at the margin will encourage creators to make more of the sort of content you enjoy.

The great majority of romantic fiction read by women, fan-fiction or otherwise, is heterosexual pairings with the OP, a female character from the setting, or a stand-in for the OP.

My priors were strongly in the opposite direction, at least in the fanfiction space, so I checked the numbers on Archive of our Own, (the most popular fanfiction site).

They confirmed my suspicions: M/M pairings are almost twice as common as M/F (4.7 million fics vs 2.4 million). They're also read a lot more, the most popular M/M fic had 8.2 million hits vs only 2.7 million for the top M/F fic.

The easy exercise is to try and solve exam questions from n years ago. Most of the time, in most subjects, people just walk away shocked how much harder they were.

I don't know about your course in particular, but the "look how badly current students fail old exams" technique is deeply flawed. When a course is changed it almost always adds some parts while removing others.

If the previous version covered points ABCD but the new course is now ADEF then it's only natural that today's students would be confused by points B and C. It's not a fair comparison unless you also consider how well the original group would have done on E and F.

Based on the page history at archive.org the "certain hospitalized patients" line was added in May 2020, with the "should only be used in a hospital or during clinical trials" part being added around a month later. At the time it seemed plausible that it would work.

I think you might have misunderstood. The one that has to pay is the developer.

End users aren't being charged, so there's no reason for them to mess with firewalls or DNS settings. Maybe a tiny handful might try to support the devs by blocking Unity's tracking beacon, but 99%+ will just hit the Install button as usual.

I can't find anything about Jewish attitudes specifically but here's something at least. +13% net favorability among the US general population (as of September 2022), broken down to 27% favorable / very favorable, 14% unfavorable / very unfavorable, 27% neutral and 32% unaware.

There are crosstabs by race, gender, political party etc, but nothing specifically for jews

In Japan where I now live (I feel like I throw that into every post but here it's perhaps relevant) theres a term called 紅白 or kouhaku (literally "confession")

I know this is being a bit pedantic, but you're thinking of 告白 (kokuhaku). 紅白 is the red vs white singing competition at new year.

I got 30,246 and also got avulse wrong. Maybe there are a handful of points for speed?

That wouldn't help. The idea is that the basilisk tortures a simulation of you, not the original meat version. There's no reason it couldn't do that after your death (at least beyond the standard objections to the basilisk scenario).

The article is talking about charitable foundations rather than individual donations. Rich people set them up then hand over the management to professional charity administrators. The article argues that the money then gets diverted to standard leftist causes, regardless of the original donor's intentions, and that this is especially true for foundations that are set up to continue after the original donor dies.

52 weeks in a year, 26 bi-weeks, 26 * 16667 = 43,334 USD/year. Which is... pretty low, these days, even by startup standards.

You're out by an order of magnitude. It should be 433k, which seems unrealistic even in Silicon Valley.

They've changed core aspects before. THAC0 was probably the defining element of pre-third-edition D&D.

I've heard it called "word association football"

Handheld whiteboard for character writing practice. I spent probably 30-60 minutes a day just repetitively writing and erasing.

I'd advise against this part, it's a whole lot of effort for very little gain. You'll hardly ever need to write characters by hand. 99%+ of the time you'll be typing instead which is based on pinyin - you just enter Latin letters and choose the right characters from a list based on the sound.

Much easier to just learn the basics of how stroke order works and then focus on reading and typing. Copy the characters from your phone on the rare occasions that you have to write anything on paper.

Latest scientific studies indicate that the share of gaming consoles owned by women (PDF, page 9) ranges from 42% to 52%.

I checked that PDF link and the data was 86% male which completely contradicts what you claimed.

Not sure if that was your point and you were trying to set up a contrast between "the science" and Nintendo's actual sales figures, but if so that didn't come through in the post.

“Equality of opportunity is morally undesirable.” Pro

I'd be interested to hear where you're coming from on this one. Is this the "social mobility hollows out the working class" / "desegregation destroyed Black America" argument or something different?

I'd argue that the situation with the antivax movement supports the grandparent's point. Doctors and epidemiologists have always been against it but for the rest of the Blue Tribe the standard reaction was always "roll your eyes and move on" rather than TPTB doing everything in their power to crush it.

Obviously the red/blue coding isn't the only thing that's caused the change, but I don't think it's irrelevant either.

Just doesn't exist. Private universities weren't really a thing back then (government-funded universities didn't charge tuition fees until the late 90s) and although the Labour Party screamed about it at the time they made no attempt to reverse the policy when they came back into power.

tl;dr; sports + celebrities. No one cares about paul graham or taylor lorenz, lots of people care about Brady, Belichick and Dicker the Kicker

This policy has been an absolute disaster for that group, at least based on my little corner of non-political Twitter.

Until yesterday the effect of Musk on sports/hobby Twitter was zero to slightly positive - the only noticeable change was that the trending hashtags are less dominated by American politics. The Mastadon "migration" was never more than a handful, and even those that did set up accounts either forgot them after a week or just set them to mirror Twitter posts.

But the external links ban seems to have changed all that. Suddenly everyone is setting up alternative accounts, it's an order of magnitude bigger than the initial takeover. Linktree and similar services were very widely used so there are a lot of people that never cared about the takeover that now feel threatened. Even if you aren't personally affected Twitter has made itself look weak so people are concerned about it collapsing.

The policy has seriously undermined Twitter's standing in that area, in a way that looks like it will persist despite the U-turn.

That's their "standard" rate, but they also have a 70% royalty rate (30% Amazon cut) that applies to most books in practice. You just need to price your book between $2.99 and $9.99 USD and allow it to be part of Kindle Unlimited.

(The reason for positioning the lower rate as the standard one is probably because a bonus for including the book in KU sounds nicer than a penalty for not including it, even when the practical effects are exactly the same)