KnotGodel
1yr ago
and then demanded Kanye be cancelled
How does the linked tweet demand Kanye be cancelled?
KnotGodel
1yr ago
You can both be right.
It can be unhealthy to care if people look like you, and (assuming most people do care and this is unlikely to change) still a good thing to provide representation to a demographic.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
The more obvious cause of the poor performance of DIS is increased competition (Netflix, Amazon, Apple, YouTube, etc) and Covid reducing box office sales.
Pre-covid, Disney repeatedly broke box office ticket sale records. Of their top 10 grossing movies of all time, 9 are from within the last 8 years (7, adjusted for inflation) - this on top of Covid eating into 1-2 of those years. This suggests that, contrary to your claims, their ability to produce watchable movies is not really a driver of their demise.
why are the children of our elites so consistently idiots and drug addicts
Do have evidence that they're disproportionately idiots and drug addicts? I strongly expect the opposite.
If the HBD-Tards' and Woke-Cels' theories about race were accurate, this ought to have translated into quick and easy victory
The Allies had more than double the GDP of the Axis powers every year of the war. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that racial differences (if they exist) can trump a 2x advantage in production. It was even more lopsided regarding raw population counts. Even beyond that you're attempting to infer causation (or lack thereof) based on a correlation of n=2. That's absurd.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
They were not way behind on production per person, which really ought to be the far more relevant metric to evaluating HBD.
But this is all moot, because, again, you are using a lack of correlation to infer a lack of causation, and you are using n=2. That is sloppy reasoning and can't let you draw any conclusions.
Sorry I'm muddying your rigorous analysis with silly things like logic.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
Re drugs - I did some googling:
tl;dr - among teens/young adults
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low SES predicts more smoking
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high SES predicts more alcohol and marijuana
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the evidence is unclear for harder drugs
A 2009 meta-analysis found
There was consistent evidence to support an association between lower childhood SES and later drug use, primarily cannabis use. However, few studies examined cannabis dependence, and studies of more problematic forms of drug use gave contradictory results
A 2010 study found
Higher parental education is associated with higher rates of binge drinking, marijuana and cocaine use in early adulthood. Higher parental income is associated with higher rates of binge drinking and marijuana use. No statistically significant results are found for crystal methamphetamine or other drug use. Results are not sensitive to the inclusion of college attendance by young adulthood as a sensitivity analysis.
A 2012 study found
Smoking in young adulthood was associated with lower childhood family SES, although the association was explained by demographic and social role covariates. Alcohol use and marijuana use in young adulthood were associated with higher childhood family SES, even after controlling for covariates.
Another 2012 study found
Except for alcohol abuse, substance use rates were systematically higher in individuals with low, rather than intermediate/high, socioeconomic position (age and sex-adjusted ORs from 1.75 for cannabis use to 2.11 for tobacco smoking and 2.44 for problematic cannabis use)
KnotGodel
1yr ago
Re intelligence, the difference between the average SAT score from the poorest families and the richest families is about 2 z-scores - ditto for parental educational attainment. SAT scores correlate strongly with IQ, so the idea that the children of elites are idiots seems obviously false.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
Wrong.
Causation does not require correlation.
Consider the causal network
B = A
C = -A
D = B+C
There will be no correlation between B and D, even though B causes D.
An HBD advocate might say IQ causes greater output/capita but fewer people (via lower birth rates). This would cause an unknown correlation between IQ and total GDP.
Moreover, again, a correlation with n=2 is not even good evidence of correlation - especially when you are literally cherrypicking to prove your point.
This might be a language barrier issue but that is not what you wrote. An equality is not an implication
In the above, I'm using equality in the way typical in programming, not mathematics. Setting B = A, then setting C = -A, then setting D = B+C. In this way, any change to B causes a change to D. This is one of the two most common ways to use the "=" symbol across countries and languages.
Indeed, it's probably worth pointing out that causation is not an implication - a distinction you seem unclear on.
acknowledging the presence of a 3rd unidentified factor that can overpower heritability you've effectively falsified the the bulk of the HBD-advocate's claims
Even ceding everything else, how can the mere existence of a factor that can occasionally have a larger effect than genes, "falsify" HBD? Like, an HBD-advocate might think a black man will statistically beat an asian man in a fight due to being geneticlly stronger. If you give an asian man a gun and they shoot a black man, how exactly have you disproven HBD?
KnotGodel
1yr ago
"If A then B" is the literal definition of causation
The definition of implication is this truth table:
A B A -> B
T T T
T F F
F T T
F F T
Crack open any textbook on logic or math. That is the literal definition. There is also a separate notion of "entails". These are basic concepts in the field of formal logic.
The definition of "causation" is more complex and debated, but the two are definitely not equivalent since logical implication can work backwards in time and causality can not. Logical implication can also work instantly, whereas causation is limited by the speed of light.
Edit: more to the point, I literally provided an example above where B causes D but has no correlation ("implication")
KnotGodel
1yr ago
I haven't followed this much (like read ~2 articles on it), and I'm probably naive, but I've always intuitively felt that verdicts passed by a randomly chosen jury are probably typically reasonable regarding political motivations. What makes you think differently? (either in this case or in general)
KnotGodel
1yr ago
In practice, I can go to the CDC website and see that their nutrition recommendations are terrible
The first page I found seems reasonable?
- Emphasizes fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and fat-free or low-fat milk and milk products
- Includes a variety of protein foods such as seafood, lean meats and poultry, eggs, legumes (beans and peas), soy products, nuts, and seeds.
- Is low in added sugars, sodium, saturated fats, trans fats, and cholesterol.
- Stays within your daily calorie needs
[ hmm - I can't seem to get lists to work well inside quotes ]
KnotGodel
1yr ago
Working in tech is considered to be relatively high status
I think it depends on how you define these things.
Almost all the status engineers have comes from their earnings, and if you take an engineer making $150k and a lawyer, artist, writer, etc making $150k, the latter will be viewed as higher status.
So, this all runs into a definitional question. Is tech high status? Or is being rich high status and tech is low status? idk - there's no "answer"
But beauty and nobility are the exact same.
You can't get an "X is noble" from "is" statements either. Ditto for beauty except insofar as you think beauty is a social construct and you are optimizing for what is generally considered beautiful by the bulk of people. But, then, I too can choose my morality based on what other people say is moral.
This is to say, all your arguments against conventional morality apply exactly equally as well to your own values of nobility and beauty.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
KnotGodel
1yr ago
The scientific evidence points to 21-30 minutes of cardio per session. See here for a screenshot of the relevant table.
Edit: the usual caveats apply to interpreting meta moderator analysis.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
It would only be "a very similar set of criteria" if the Holocaust denier
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was not anonymous
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named specific victims and claimed they were lying
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had enough reach that those victims received threats from other people
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had enough reach that these victims knew about those particular instances of Holocaust denial
Has that ever happened? idk
Given that most people eat far too many calories and fat-free milk has 25% fewer calories than 2% milk, isn't it reasonable to advise against fatty milk? I know the jury is still out on saturated fats, but I thought trans fat was almost universally considered bad?
So, from my perspective, I see them batting 17.5/18, which seems pretty good
KnotGodel
1yr ago
How is it anti-meat?
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Re anti-fat, I thought trans fat was emphatically bad? The advice to avoid saturated fats seems like the most plausibly bad advice in the list, but afaik the jury is still out there.
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The balance of the evidence seems to suggest sodium is also bad?
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Where does the CDC advice eating 6 ounces or less of lean meat per day?
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I think, given most people consume too many calories, recommending skim milk over whole milk makes good public health sense
KnotGodel
1yr ago
"We know better than you how you should use your land"
Georgism doesn't require the government know how anyone should use any land.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
Just to clarify: aren't all these arguments against existing property taxes?
KnotGodel
1yr ago
Why are sales taxes better than income taxes under your philosophy? They both make use of the medium of regulated money.
KnotGodel
1yr ago
should a person's income tax be based on the amount of money they theoretically could be earning, if they worked as much as possible in the most valuable field they are qualified for, in the location with the highest salary?
I, being one of the few hard-core utilitarians, actually support this in principle. In practice, I'm suspicious of the implementation details being carried out well enough to justify it (e.g. the risk of this destroying the Schelling point of free markets).
That being said, if I were to do it (as God Emperor), I just want to mention that I'd adjust the tax rates rather than the taxes themselves. For instance, suppose Alice is skilled enough to make $100k and Bob is skilled enough to make $40k. I might tax Bob 0% and Alice at 60%, thereby leaving Alice and Bob both at $40k if they maximize their economic potential. The reason essentially boils down to me believing a flat tax doesn't distort labor decisions.
Behind a veil of ignorance (before knowing their skills), they would both agree to my proposal compare to the alternative (43% flat tax on both).
For, I think, a somewhat powerful non-utilitarian intuition: Alice's skills are a lottery she won; Bob's lack of skills are a lottery he lost. Neither deserves their lot in life. It is fundamentally unfair that Alice can get the same life Bob has by working 2 days per week while Bob works all 5.
Right. Their point was that your theory is true, but that the equivalent theory is plausible for transgender women and would explain the "evidence" put forth by Dolly (cited by the OP).
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