MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
No bio...
User ID: 1678
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
In any serious conflict, the missiles wouldn't just be limited to the Taiwan strait. China would likely take out all major US bases on day 1 of the conflict.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
I doubt a war would drag on for 350 days. If China learned anything from Russia's blunders in Ukraine then it's surely that it's a better bet to overcommit. While they are reliant on oil, the world is reliant on Chinese supply-chains. A blockade of China would instantly cause a catastrophic depression in the West and likely hyperinflation.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Countries are shifting supply chains away from China
Yes, but China's share of world's manufacturing output keeps increasing anyway. This merely tells us that they are no longer as dependent on foreign suppliers as in the past and the domestic champions are outgrowing them.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
They have recently inducted the JL-3 ICBM on their ballistic subs, which means they could hit the US mainland pretty close to their waters. They lacked this ability until recently for their underwater fleet.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
The US, despite its hypocrisies, does let human rights significantly drive its foreign policy
I see no real evidence of this. I'd be curious if you could provide any. The US has de facto invaded Iraq and currently occupies a third of Syria illegally. It has imposed crushing sanctions on Venezuela (sanctions almost hit the poor in any country the most.. the elites tend to be fine). It has nothing to do with democracy. It has had amenable relations with plenty of authoritarian states. Saudi until recently and Egypt currently.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Hitler was just a sort of 'whacky idea man' and the German people voted for him because they were insane.
To be clear, you're right to be tired of this kind of argument, often used by midwits, but most serious historians do concede that Hitler had a point about Germany's crushing Versailles debt and that he did well in reconstructing Germany after taking power. Conceding these facts doesn't exonerate his behaviour during the war.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
An anonymous substacker has written up a good piece on the Rise of the West. Essentially, he comes to the conclusion that the divergence began in the 1000-1500 A.D. period and that subsequent colonisation efforts by Europe of the rest of the world was simply an outgrowth of those earlier advantages.
This of course upends the familiar trope of "the West got rich by the backs of the Third World" so popular with leftists in the West and in countries like India, across the political spectrum. I bring this up because if the poor countries of the world today have any hope of catching up, they should first re-examine honestly why they fell behind in the first place. Yet I see precious little of that, except mostly moral grandstanding about the evils of the exploitative West.
This also has domestic political implications because a lot of white guilt-driven narratives are sprung from the narrative that the West got rich by exploitation and thus the logical corollary is that evil white people should repent (preferably through monetary reparations). The narrative that colonisation was simply a natural outgrowth of European pre-existing advantages that grew over time naturally undermines it. One could also note that the Barbary slave trade, or the slave auctions in the Ottoman Empire, shows that the Third World was far from innocent. But of course these historical facts don't have high political payoffs in the contemporary era, so they are ignored or underplayed.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Hoel is 100% wrong when he tried to debunk Aaronson's claim that more intelligent people are more moral (on average). That's in fact entirely true. See here and here. It is also why lower intelligence is associated with religious fanaticism or extremism of any kind.
As for whether AI is dangerous or not. I take the view of Kurzweil. Intelligent life has continually evolved and replaced lower orders that came before it. Seen in this light, if AI replaces human intelligence it would just be another step on the evolutionary ladder. Whether we think it is right or wrong is irrelevant. It will happen. Technological progress is the single most unyielding force in history.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
To be fair, relationships in history
In most of human history, people didn't live long past the age of 35. India's median life expectancy as late as 1945 was something like 36 years if memory serves.
In short, humans weren't meant for ultra-long relationships. That's a very recent phenomenon. Couples that have 40+ year relationships are extremely rare for good reasons. Typically, the man either has a very low libido or he is seeing prostitutes or has mistresses on the side. Or he has simply learned to suppress his desires to an unnatural extent and come to terms with it.
I don't know why our culture promotes the insane idea that marriages should last forever. It's actively harmful.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Sooner or later, the right will (hopefully) come to understand a few hard-hitting things:
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NIMBY:ism is not only good but morally necessary to create and sustain worthwhile communities. Not just their character but also their architectural beauty and natural endowments (e.g. parks, tree-lined pathways).
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Regulation is an unavoidable fact in order to bring all of this about. The neoliberal rage against regulation will only lead to poorly built cardboard boxes mashed together into historic neighbourhoods, crammed with people of dubious moral character (as this would be "affordable housing" that YIMBYists love to praise).
Getting rid of most cars in inner cities would also be a good start and many European cities are moving in this direction. Some faster (Oslo) and some slower (Paris) but it's slowly coming together.
That all said, if someone truly thinks that car-centric sprawl suburbia is the peak of human existence, then all the more power to you. I just don't think many on the right are actually on board with that once they take time to think. The issue is that many have neoliberal priors that prevents them from going to the logical conclusion. Housing policy is difficult because there isn't a clear-cut left vs right divide and most folks prefer to stay in tribes where thinking independently is discouraged and you can just follow the herd.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
If memory serves, Lincoln even wanted to deport most of the freed slaves back to Africa but was prevented because capitalists lobbied hard to keep their cheap (though no longer free) labour. The more things change...
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
It was also sufficiently large in the American public psyche to inspire a professional wrestling faction called the Truth Commission
If memory serves, the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg even gave an interview in her twilight years where she praised the South African constitution as superior to the US one. So South Africa was the poster child of global liberalism for the older generation. Having it fail in such a public way is of course embarrassing. Though I suspect the usual excuses of "legacy of Apartheid" will be trotted out in perpetuity and no introspection will be allowed for fear of being called racist.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
In any case, while I sympathize with South Africans of British or Bantu or most other origins, I can’t stand Afrikaners whining about the state of their country. It was Afrikaners who campaigned vigorously against white settlement by non-Boers and who therefore ensured South Africa’s present-day demographics. If they had welcomed more Brits, the country might well have a European majority to this day. But the Dutch have always been an obstinate people.
Reminds me of the US south, which was largely populated by the Brits (compared to the more mixed-German Midwest). It was they who insisted on importing massive amounts of slaves to feed their plantations. Had they won the civil war, the US black population would have been >30% instead of 13%. So I don't think it's a Dutch issue. It's just white autism.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Difference is that the islands of relative stability were larger and more numerous 30 years ago. Now there is a broader degeneration. You didn't have these massive rolling blackouts, a greater fraction of the railway system was intact etc.
But this is all water under the bridge. South Africa failed because it wasn't racist enough, ironically. Even Apartheid was in many ways a bandaid. The story is similar with Israel. You can only extend and pretend for so long until the past catches up with you.
Most studies I've seen on the subject suggest that discrimination is more significant against Asians rather than Whites. However, we have to be careful here because the White category includes Jews who generally speaking do not suffer from affirmative action. In addition, since Whites have been in the US for longer and in far larger numbers, there are simply more old money types who donate to schools on top of "legacy admits".
If those confounding factors were partialled out then I wouldn't be surprised if, say, lower-middle class Whites without rich parents, a Holocaust grandma story or legacy points were more discriminated against than Asians. However, these are exceptionally sensitive topics so getting data is very hard. Even in the lawsuits against the Ivy League schools, where data has been forcibly extracted from the institutions, the White category isn't separated from the Jewish one.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Carter is probably vying with Nixon as the most demonised US president in the 20th century. Maybe Hoover would also qualify for the competition. Hoover seemed to be a fantastic human being but simply inept at the job (despite being highly intelligent). Nixon was likely demonised for ideological reasons with Watergate being the fig leaf. Carter is really the enigma. How much of the economic woes was even his fault, rather than the energy shock(s) that reverberated throughout the 1970s? He pissed off the Israel lobby with his "Peace not Apartheid" book, which didn't help matters for his post-presidential reputation.
Finally, to sell the Reagan revolution you need a bogeyman and Carter was it. I'm perfectly prepared to believe that Carter was a mediocre president, but I'm unconvinced he was as bad as his reputation.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Most people who got to know about HBD didn't look for it, myself included. I stumbled upon it. It did change my view on a lot of things, but I still think liberals have the correct take on a large number of issues. Plus I suppose it's just a matter of socialisation. As a lot of "intellectual heretics" have either departed or been banned off reddit, there is less pushback than ever there. I suppose the same can be said about this place. Ultimately, we're all worse off for it, because intellectual diversity keeps everyone on their toes rather than fragmenting into echo chambers.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Samantha Power, a key member of what John Mearsheimer terms the "liberal interventionist wing" of the US foreign policy establishment, was appointed as head of USAID a few years ago. I was under the impression that USAID was supposed to be helping poor people in disaster zones grappling with famines etc, but perhaps I've been underappreciate of the radically new direction the agency is taking.
She is now in Budapest handing over tens of millions of dollars to "locally-driven" initiatives and "independent media". Perhaps I am far too cynical but this smells like a barely-concealed operation designed to groom a future leadership class to oppose Orban and what he stands for.
While Orban probably knows what's going on, he also can't do much as he's locked into NATO and the EU ecosystem. He did successfully eject Soros a few years ago but USAID is a different beast. It's a governmental organisation of the most important player in NATO. The current US ambassador is also a highly vocal LGBT activist. It's pretty clear what their goal here is and Orban is powerless to stop it.
In a sense, one cannot but admire the sheer audacity of the US foreign policy apparatus. Playing to win.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
And it's $110 a month
Not bad, though outside of rural areas, internet prices are already much cheaper and far faster in most of the West outside the five-eyes countries (where internet prices are absurdly expensive) and population density is much higher. Musk spoke about bringing internet to far-flung places but how many people can afford these prices in rural India? Seems like he'd have to cut prices by 90% to make it viable.
Given how important it appears to be for Ukrainian efforts, I suspect that its true utility will be in the military domain and potentially B2B, too.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Also, forgot to mention: where do you think people are supposed to keep those big, heavy cargo bikes? Most of the apartment buildings in Europe don’t even have elevators.
Outdoors. It depends which city you live in but crime tends to be significantly lower than in the US generally speaking. That said, I agree with your points that some naïve center-left Americans have a very rose-tinted view of how car-dependent cities are in Europe, even in fairly progressive cities. But there has certainly been a huge amount of progress and it just keeps snowballing.
what makes them choose other modes of transportation than driving (spoiler: most of the time it is simply the cost).
This isn't so obvious anymore, depending on your class situation. There's more than enough of "climate conscious" middle-class families with fairly comfortable incomes who may have a car for occasional usage, but who typically use bikes and public transportation for most daily needs. It also depends whether we're talking about someone owning a house or not. Most families in big cities live in large apartments.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
I don't think the citizens in Germany will just go on
I suspect you vastly underestimate the meekness of the modern German these days. I'd love to be proved wrong, but I don't think I will, sadly.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Lapdogs don't call the shots.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
I think this topic is sensitive to Americans, since it basically means they aren't the Good Guys that they were led to believe. People in general want to think the best of their country, and understandably so. So I am not surprised by the pushback. (We should also make a distinction between the US Govt and the American people. I have a high opinion of the latter but a low of the former).
The question that needs to be asked in these situations is always the same: cui bono? It clearly isn't Russia. Having Europe more dependent on its energy and not less is clearly in their interest. It isn't Germany either, which resisted pressure to end it for years before the invasion. Why would China or France blow it up? India? Doesn't have the capability. Obviously there's only one country big enough and powerful enough left standing to have done it and which has been voicing very loud denunciations and outrage over its existence for years. The US of A. Biden even blatantly threatened that NS2 would be "put to an end one way or another". You can't get more clear than that.
Instead of grappling with this issue from a structural basis, folks have been trying to personally smear Hersh. It's the old "shoot the messenger" tactic. Will it work? Maybe for some, but I suspect for most of the non-Americans, the US was already a prime suspect and so his reporting doesn't really shock anyone.
The US will continue to officially deny it and Americans will want to believe any story that absolves their country of blame (understandably) whereas much of the rest of the world will just go on, seeing America in a more cynical light than before.
MelodicBerries
virtus junxit mors non separabit
2yr ago
Sorry that's just a poor excuse. There are plenty of bikes in Europe which have cargo space.
https://electrek.co/2020/11/21/bunch-the-coupe-cargo-e-bike-dutch-design/
The fundamental problem is that the US is a car-centric society and too many Americans try to find ways to keep it that way.
There's a good intro/overview of these bikes, which are quite common in the Netherlands, here:
Is there a crisis of Holocaust revisionism in video games? ADL certainly thinks so and publicly calls out Fortnite along with Call of Duty for being insufficiently tough on their gamers. While I generally speaking have a low opinion of mass-market video games, I'm surprised how politicised games are these days. When I was young, there was total freedom to name yourself whatever and say anything you wanted. I want kids' innocent hobbies to remain that way, without getting the ADL-sponsored Holocaust triggers and censorships baked into games. Is that too much to ask?
It reminds me of the brouhaha over transexuals in the latest Harry Potter game. JK Rowling's stance is well-known but the devs couldn't resist smacking gamers over the head with pro-trans content. If Holocaust denial is a concern, will we soon see Anne Frank adventure games for kids to play (whether they want it or not)?
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