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MelodicBerries

virtus junxit mors non separabit

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joined 2022 October 17 16:57:34 UTC

				

User ID: 1678

MelodicBerries

virtus junxit mors non separabit

0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 October 17 16:57:34 UTC

					

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User ID: 1678

Your latter argument is wholly correct but also misleading, since it concerns commercialisation where America's capitalist system easily beats the one-party state of China. While some go into academia to make money, preferably in start-ups, a lot of researchers don't dream of making big money but of making a big scientific impact. Having a comfortable but not wildly high salary is sufficient.

If you're a Mandarin-speaker it isn't at all clear if the US has a clear advantage over China at the elite level in fields like chemistry or physics today. In fact, it is unlikely.

I suppose the argument is that one shouldn't treat all ethnic Chinese as a giant blog of Borg working in perfect co-ordination. While the Chinese government and some of their VC firms do act like you describe, many ordinary Chinese people have nothing to do with it but were unfairly targeted in a broad campaign that often was remarkably crass in its target-selection - as even former administrators of the program now admit.

Isn't the more obvious trigger to losing foreign academics the multi-year Covid travel problems?

Well, the issue with that interpretation is it doesn't describe how not only China but also "non-US OECD" countries have gained. In other words, what's being measured aren't domestic citizens not going abroad but non-citizens coming in. Certainly China's zero covid policies were brutal yet they still gained folks from abroad and so did countries in Europe, Australia, Canada etc.

It's depressing because it implies their anti-racist veneer is mostly a function of status-seeking rather than conviction. I suspect that is the case for many if not most such people.

Why wouldn't they return to China?

Twenty or even ten years ago they probably wouldn't because the opportunities back home would have been meager, so instead of the US they'd likely move to Western countries without such a racial system of institutionalised discrimination. That may still happen to some extent, but the difference today is that their domestic research ecosystem is already world-class. That makes all the difference, so there is not only a pull-factor but it's combined with a push-factor (China initative).

Those slots could be taken by American students

Does America have enough smart people? Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of smart Americans but the rest of the world combined has more. Way, way more. So it is a smart idea to select the very best for the most prestigious STEM institutions - which is precisely what the US has been doing. It'd be foolish to stop or even put a damper on it.

Top people are the ones who need the most loyalty, instead the WASP-elites are surrounded by foreigners while much of the elite are actual foreigners. This puts the elite and the people in different universes, while dismantling any sense of noblesse oblige.

This is an important argument but it would be difficult to combine it with recruiting the best from the world. You'd have to essentially put in practice an officially-sanctioned discriminatory system that tells the best and the brightest from abroad that they will always operate under a glass ceiling despite their abilities. That in of itself would act as a great repellent for any prospective talent. Why work hard in a society where there are limited avenues for personal growth?

So in my view, you'd essentially have to make a choice: either you welcome the best from the world over but with differing loyalties or you aim to consolidate a very homogenous elite but accept that their capabilities will be less. You can't have both. The US elite apparently chose the former and so far, at least, it isn't obvious to me that the US has suffered from it. That may change, then again, it may not.

Importing tens of thousands of Chinese people into the university system, getting China up to speed, and then trying to keep them making plastic toys won't work. They were obviously going to bring a lot of that know how home.

True, but a lot of them also ended up staying. A non-trivial fraction of top AI talent comes from China. Almost 90% of Chinese postgrads choose to stay in the US. In my view, the US has benefited more than China from this exchange. Just as the US has benefited more than India from their brain drain.

As an aside, I find it amusing that Biden is now as tough - and perhaps tougher - than Trump ever was. All while promising to run a much more liberal immigration system during the campaign. For open borders supporters (all five of them), this must be a dark day.

On a more general note, I think the reason why people come is banally simple: money. Much of the third world has been either stagnant (Brazil) or actively declining (Venezuela). I've read that even many Indians and Chinese are now also increasing their numbers. Europe is seeing huge surges in illegal migration too. The 2015 refugee crisis is likely just a prelude of what's coming down the pike in this century.

The only really effective way to truly repel people at the border would probably be lethal violence in an organised way, which is obviously a non-starter for any liberal democracy. I'm not making any predictions, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Biden admin began to really ramp up construction of the border wall and upgrading it in older areas. Would be a funny troll in the event of Trump against Biden in 2024, which at this point seems almost certain.

The cliche woke academic line is that illegal undocumented immigrants do the jobs Americans won't do. But I think it's more accurate to say that they do the jobs that the establishment doesn't want to pay for, or at least not as much they really ought to

I agree with this, there's a weird "alliance" between the proles of the third world and the elites of the first. That is also why, incidentally, the embrace of neoliberal economics by the conservative movement was a major historical error. At least conservatives in the US have stopped being braindead gung-ho war supporters of the kind we saw during the Bush era. Perhaps there could be a further evolution to a more organic skepticism of endless GDP growth, which is the underlying ideology justifying mass migration.

During the 2015-2016 crisis the top countries for asylum applicants were Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq

That's what they claimed. In reality, many just bought fake passports in Turkish bazaars. Others threw away their passports once they crossed the border and claimed they were from Syria. Under the rules that existed then, it wasn't possible to deport them.

Today countries like Tunisia, Pakistan and Bangladesh are much more numerous even if the old ones like Syria still dominate. It has morphed into a general economic migration. Of course, everyone will claim they are fleeing war because they know that will increase their chances.

That said, the wars in Syria and Afghanistan certainly made matters worse. Which is why Europe's enthusiasm for America's imperial wars is perplexing to me. The blowback often shows up on Europe's shores - literally.

I was following the Irish protests against asylum seekers on various Telegram channels for months. It was something rarely reported in the media but it must have scared TPTB, hence the draconian anti-speech bill.

I think Irish nationalism suffered from two main flaws. First, it was based on Catholicism against the English Protestants, in a world where Pope Francis is trying to outdo himself at every turn in how liberal he can be. Second, it was based on an ethnicity which, let's be frank, barely has any distinction from the English at this point. Even the language war was lost ages ago.

So the old rationales for Irish nationalism have faded one by one. It will take time for the Irish to re-tool and re-adjust. Another fact that needs to be acknowledged is that Ireland has taken in a lot of European migrants. So we may be at the start of a new "melting pot" in Ireland, where various white ethnicities meld into one larger white identity, the way it happened in America during the early 20th century. I suspect this process has just begun and will need time to play itself out.

I suspect most Poles will stay, though the wave of emigration has almost certainly stopped. Your point about EU membership superceding the need for citizenship is well-taken. It probably will act as a break of further rooting themselves. In a way that is a success of the European project, which aims for all Europeans to see the entire continent as their homeland.

I'll make a few brief observations.

  1. These videos are mostly an American phenomenon. Attempts at blowing up a banal social interaction to a national scandal doesn't happen in Europe. I'm not talking about something going viral on social media because it's funny or whatever. I'm talking about a genuine witch-hunt, invariably on racial grounds. Sure, there's public shaming in Europe but it isn't extrapolated to the person's race like it is in America.

  2. The victims of these witch-hunts are almost always white. I don't think this is a coincidence. For the same reason, when mass shooters are non-white, media interest drops off. For this reason, I think it tells of a societal sickness in the US which is missing in Europe. It isn't just "obsession with race" but rather "obsession with white people", always in a negative way.

  3. Many white women went along with the anti-white bandwagon in the (naive) belief that the mob would spare them. Well, they sure did miscalculate on that one. In fact, I get the sense that white women are often treated worse than white men in the media when there's a pile-on like now. There's a particular resentful nastiness to the "Karen" insult - which again is only applied to white women and not women of other races - which has no real equivalent among white men.

On the same day.

  1. China overtakes United States on contribution to research in Nature Index.

  2. China Surpasses Japan as World’s Top Auto Exporter.

Not sure how this decoupling/containment business is going, but it sure doesn't seem to be flying with all colors. I'm not someone who buys into the de-dollarisation thesis, nor do I think the US with its allies (vassals?) is going to be displaced. But neither is China. It'd be nice if US policy would take on a more realistic bent and acknowledge these basic facts instead of pursuing futile policies doomed to failure. We might even have auxiliary benefits such as less need to spend on a bloated military as a consequence. Fat chance, I know, but hope is the last thing that leaves man.

His fellow billionaires think it is beautiful

And how do you know this?

Good summary. There are simply too many structural factors favouring SF in a way that e.g. Detroit never had. Moreover, it helps that firms like OpenAI are vocally supporting of the city even while they criticise the leadership.

One final point. Even many people who move don't move far. There was one VC who made a big splash on Twitter a few months ago about how he's moving out of SF due to spiralling crime. Where did he move? To Palo Alto. SF mostly rose as a cheaper alternative but the wider Bay Area isn't losing its luster as much as people think. Moreover, even alternatives like Seattle are seeing a rise in similar problems, but with substantially worse weather.

That Karen is an anti-white slur only directed against white women seems pretty obvious. I never understood why so many on the right embraced the term. I am also not surprised that most of the people in the chatlogs are other women, since the term was mostly used by women or gay men.

One interesting point is that the most anti-white group at uber are blacks whereas Asians were most sympathetic. Latinos were sort of in-between but a bit closer to the Asian position. This makes me a bit more hopeful about America's future as traditionally the two most hostile anti-white groups were either blacks or Jews and both are losing relative demographic importance since the bulk of non-white growth is Asian and Latino.

These trends come in waves. Liberals in the 1960s and 1970s also lost control and then turned sharply towards the center during the 1980s and 1990s. Biden used to brag about passing the most draconian anti-crime bills in the 1990s until the optics changed and it became a liability. Perhaps he will now remind voters yet again in 2024?

I think the turnaround on crime is simply an outgrowth of "everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face" theory that was proposed by Mike Tyson and which I subscribe to. The plan was defund the police and getting hit in the face part is what followed. Will liberals learn? History shouldn't make us optimistic given that we've seen these patterns before.

There was never a referendum on multiculturalism in Sweden just like there wasn't in America for the 1965 immigration act. This "people chose this themselves" is a tired and unconvincing argument.

I know about Cole's turnaround but Irving is news to me. Mind sharing source?

Honestly he just comes across as a weird schizo, but it sure is amusing to see the uptick in Latinx and Indian nazis.

If memory serves, the leader of the far-right "Proud Boys" group was mestizo.

The people who opposed it were often prevented from competing on fair terms electorally. In many cases, their party leaders were just jailed. This is a recent example. So no, I find the "let's blame the voters" unconvincing and frankly a sign of a mind unable to look critically at the system as it is.

Interesting, thanks!

I'm supportive of Erdogan winning in Turkey's elections since him being in power means two things. First, Turkey is more likely to have a pro-refugee stance (compared to the opposition) and thus alleviate pressure off Europe. Second, his quasi-islamist sympathies ensures that Turkey is unlikely to join the EU any time soon or even get stuff like free visa access, which they've been whining about for almost a decade now.

Erdogan is a "known entity" and despite the scaremongering painted by the Turkish liberal bloc, he's pretty pragmatic.

Remember the big energy crisis that Europe was supposed to be doomed with for years to come? Yeah, it's pretty much gone. Worth pointing out two things.

First, natural gas demand has been much weaker than anticipated since China is weaker. Indeed, there is now a surplus of gas in the world market.Some people claim that "last winter we got lucky", but this doesn't explain how gas storage is at historically high levels. Germany, Europe's biggest gas consumer, has an excellent position going into the autumn.

Second, renewable energy is beating new records by the day. In Northern Europe, electricity prices are bouncing around zero and occasionally dipping below the line into negative territory.There's also a structural trend of rapidly growing renewable energy, which means that even as gas prices return to historical norms, it is unlikely that consumption will stay the same. The shift now underway to renewable and clean energy (e.g. nuclear) is permanent. Russia had its chance at energy blackmail and it turned out it was a dud.

I think there are a couple of conclusions to draw from this. The most important one is that scaremongering and hysteria rarely pays to listen to. We can broaden this to a discussion about climate change or even immigration. Sure, there will be issues, but the doomsters on both issues were proven wrong historically. So were the doomsters on Europe's supposedly "permanent energy crisis" thesis.Then why do people persist by wallowing in fear? I don't have a clear answer but perhaps there are evolutionary adaptions that were beneficial to those who were erring on the side of caution?

Another important takeaway for me is once a crisis gets going you should never underestimate humanity's capacity for adaption and change. The system we inhabit may look brittle, but it's probably a lot more sturdy than we give it credit for. Some of us still remember the panicked predictions about the food supply chains breaking down when Covid hit, and plenty people stocked up on tons of canned food, often for no good reason. Some even talked of famine.

Perhaps being the optimist just isn't socially profitable. You're taken more seriously by being a "deeply concerned" pessimist. If this is true, then social incentives will be skewed to having the bad take. People who will be aware of this will probably draw the right conclusions in times when most other folks are losing their minds in fear.