MuffinButton
9hr ago
I think you're correct that the poll numbers are the direct lever involved, but my understanding is that just kicks what gets @WhiningCoil about the story up one level, i.e., Platner got a pass (in the polls) on all sorts of other behavior, but what mattered (in the polls) was a rape allegation. It's still a worthwhile distinction, since the relevance and valence of some issue to political higher-ups and to the voting population can differ significantly (cf. immigration), but that might only magnify the frustration.
The closest analogue I recall was a lot of people up in arms that Andrew Cuomo was pushed to resign after a series of sexual harassment allegations rather than his disastrous decision to put a bunch of COVID patients into nursing homes.
Edit: grammar
MuffinButton
18hr ago
My final paragraph was being kind. It was a description of my own (conditional) internal state, so I can verify it was true. Its necessity is left to the judgment of the reader—though I note that none of what anyone posts here is strictly necessary in the barest sense (and yet...). I do appreciate you linking the infographic, but I cannot help but point out that if it was taken down from its original source and you had to instead link the graphic as part of an article written by a radical feminist saying that it tripped her BS detector in the direction opposite her biases and is probably crap, then it's probably not worth including it at all.
Casually linking to two studies and inviting people (in this case, me) to look at them and see which source is more reasonable in its methodology doesn't engender any particular conclusion other than that you didn't seem to have read them particularly carefully. That I had to click through to find that one of the (as-described) studies isn't a study, but instead yet another innumerate, made-up social media graph which added negative value to the discussion was, in a nutshell, the point of my post. I know the graph was made up, because Enliven did show their homework. I award them no points, and may God have mercy on their souls.
Touching briefly on the object level: I think we are in agreement on due process and presumption of innocence.
I'm not sure what the back half of your response (PBS? Upvotes? Your GitHub?) has to do with anything I said, but after reading through, I think you might be misinterpreting others' disagreement and skepticism as emotional reactions. While I can't speak to others' feelings or lack thereof, you did impute an intense emotional response to me, and I invite you to not do that again.
It might help to think of the net spending tally not as "progress", but as "a (rough) estimate of progress". There are enough significant one-off events that the error bars are likely larger than the expected savings on timescales shorter than multiple years. As I see it, you're likely to be in one of two scenarios (which one is TBD):
Either way, you're better-positioned than you would've been in the counterfactual world where you hadn't adjusted behavior, and I would concur with your gut that it is quite the win.
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