OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
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User ID: 359
The Heritage foundation link is a database of election fraud that was proved in court. It's not an exhaustive list of all suspected of credible election fraud. It is very, very hard to put a case together that a whole state's election should be overturned because of the sheer numbers involved. If you look at one precinct, one race with fewer than 5,000 ballots, you can keep the scope of your investigation narrow and focused. If it's not just one county, one precinct cheating, but several, each not enough on its own to swing the race, but cumulative, there is a lot more to prove.
That said, I thought the Kari Lake trial did a good job and I was convinced at least. Here is a link if you would like to watch it: https://youtube.com/live/qsaOvV55XWM?si=JvRMpDKvsRvHOFhv&t=240
You can filter by fraud type by Election Overturned to see cases where the fraud affected the results of the election. Here is one in 2020 that found 3/4 of absentee ballots were not valid.
I want to note that this is a database of election fraud that was proved in court. It's not an exhaustive list of all suspected of credible election fraud. It is very, very hard to put a case together that a whole state's election should be overturned because of the sheer numbers involved. If you look at one precinct, one race with fewer than 5,000 ballots, you can keep the scope of your investigation narrow and focused. If it's not just one county, one precinct cheating, but several, each not enough on its own to swing the race, but cumulative, there is a lot more to prove.
That said, I thought the Kari Lake trial did a good job and I was convinced at least. Here is a link if you would like to watch it: https://youtube.com/live/qsaOvV55XWM?si=JvRMpDKvsRvHOFhv&t=240
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
8mo ago
If you click the Heritage link in my comment above it has documentation on over a thousand proven instances of recent (last 30 years) voter fraud in the US leading to over a thousand criminal convictions and overturning dozens of (generally local) elections. I think my priors are better supported than yours.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
8mo ago
RE: the worker stealing money analogy:
For me the analogy breaks down at the beginning. Republicans have always accused Democrats of fraud. Florida has a few counties that are notorious for it. Chicago is notorious for it. https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud
Let's say a CEO knows that employees sometimes waste time on their phones or talking about non-work topics, and that this cuts into their bottom line. Sometimes the company has bad quarters, and some grumbling is given to the employees getting paid to chatter. A few of the more egregious examples get written up but not much happens.
Then the company has a year where everyone works from home. There are many more reports of employees doing errands during normal business hours, more reports of overtime than usual, time card irregularities. The business has a horrible year and ends Q4 with a loss.
Is it reasonable for the boss to think he's being taken for a sucker?
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
8mo ago
Trump didn't try to postpone, cancel, or otherwise take control preceding the 2020 election. There was an opening for it - a historic pandemic that lead to the erosion of many other liberties. If there was ever a time when someone could have tried to push boundaries like that, it was then. He posted some things on Twitter about worrying that it would be insecure. But he didn't direct the Federal Lawfare forces to push the issue.
I also think that outstaying the 2 term-welcome is such a taboo in American's minds, that it is unthinkable for anyone to break it. Few Trump supporters want him to be in office longer than two terms, and Trump would see it's unpopular and so he won't do it.
If that counts too much towards, "Trump would be a dictator if given the chance (but his own base won't give him the chance.)" then I think that the bar is set in a position that would trip most politicians. If there wasn't an Amendment forbidding three terms, Obama probably would have run again. FDR actually did run again, defying convention. The Executive has expanded in power with every administration for decades. 90% of presidents have the dictator spirit within them. We were only graced with 1 George Washington in our nation's history.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
8mo ago
However, that doesn't change the fact that, despite not having those protections, there hasn't been good evidence of outcome-determinative fraud in past US elections (at least in the modern era), and that no one before hand questioned the actual outcome of the election, even if there might have been a few gripes here and there.
Little known fact - Obama would not have become the Democratic Presidential Nominee had four people in his campaign not cheated in the primaries.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
8mo ago
If the reason I am so sure is that I have video evidence of fraud, I would post that to the world as well with the same MSM reaction.
I mean, there was a video of a precinct pulling out a box of ballots that had been covered by a table cloth after sending away all observers. A month later, a reporter reviewed the video footage and insists that the box was legitimate and that there is "no evidence of any wrongdoing."
I think even with the official story there is obvious wrong doing - particularly sending away all observers and then deciding to continue counting without waiting for the observers to return. But is that wrong doing significant enough to sway the election? Probably not this specific instance. But how many specific instances are needed before it might sway the election?
Of course, no one was so kind as to leave a genuine smoking gun, a video confession in the midst of the act. There were a great number of times poll workers violated local election rules, and these instances are as proven as it can be outside a court of law. But without being able to investigate these, it is impossible to know if these actually turned the election.
And if the statistical anomaly is strong enough by itself, I'd do a fireside chat that is amounts to a powerpoint presentation on "here is statistical evidence of fraud", and if it really is strong enough, then the MSM will either be forced to report on its strength, or their contortions trying to debunk it will be obvious to everyone, winning the public to your side.
Your assumption that the "public" would rally around any given evidence of fraud is laughable. This is a close election. Everyone either voted for the other guy or didn't vote at all. Everyone is either motivated against accepting evidence their guy actually lost, or politically disengaged.
I'm assuming you voted for Biden? Imagine if you saw a video of someone "cleaning up unclear ballots" to favor Biden. Instances where neither candidate was selected or both candidates were selected by accident, and every time the poll worker filled in the Biden bubble and erased the Trump bubble. Do you think that the average Biden voter, upon seeing this, would say, "That's F'd up! I'm going to share this with everyone I know and protest that Trump should be the rightful president?"
Of course not! They would justify it to themselves as just a lone wolf that couldn't affect much, or that "they voted for a Democrat for senator, of course they meant to vote Biden!" They certainly wouldn't amplify the video.
What about those who don't have a horse in the game? Well, they were too focused on whatever it is that people who don't vote focus on. Imagine not caring about politics. Crazy stuff.
Trump voters really were convinced by the videos and accounts going around, so much so that upwards of 70% of Republicans still believe the election was stolen. Having this group of the public on his side did pretty much nothing for Trump besides get him into even more trouble once they decided to try a riot for themselves.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
8mo ago
I was unfavorably compared to Kamala Harris on a customer call. (I was typing and talking at the same time and started to say word-salad.) I think people mostly avoid talking about politics when out in groups, but it is on people's minds.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
I thought the same as you but today I heard a recording of him talking in 2014. I think his vocal pattern is just like that, regardless of cognitive decline.
The figure that I'm most interested in would be something like, "What is the least amount of money someone needs to live a respectable life this year?" Something like the poverty line, except instead of just looking at basic needs it looks at how much someone would need to spend to live according to the regulations and societal expectations we are subject to. This number would be widely different between someone who bought their house before 2010 vs someone who is renting or bought a house more recently. There are a few categories that could be evaluated separately, like lifestyle to be a respectable DINK in a big city, lifestyle to be a family of four in a suburb, etc. The interesting thing would be to pick a lifestyle and stick with it for a decade, seeing what the minimum amount a family could spend to stay in that lifestyle over time. That is what people think inflation is tracking, or wish inflation was tracking, based on how people reference inflation in arguments.
Someone has been tracking "Average Household Expenditures" which seems like an ok, if imperfect proxy for what I have in mind. https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/top-line-means.htm.
| Year | Average Household Expenditure | Percent Increase |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $57,311 | - |
| 2017 | $60,060 | 4.79% |
| 2018 | $61,224 | 1.93% |
| 2019 | $63,036 | 2.95% |
| 2020 | $61,334 | -2.70% |
| 2021 | $66,928 | 9.12% |
| 2022 | $72,967 | 9.02% |
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
I have seen many reports of more dead bodies that have not made it into the official statistics yet. I predict the number will be around Katrina levels, and have put my money where my mouth is, for what it's worth.
This video is one of several that, when I add things together, present this picture: https://youtube.com/watch?v=ag-hb45J6MQ?si=PBOIVJo6TvLyLZir
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Update: The North Carolina National Guard has taken credit for the Rotor Wash incident. https://x.com/NCNationalGuard/status/1843780336616124896
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Would you like to use https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl when the report becomes available?
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Then why don't you vote for a third party that aligns further with your preferences? People like to be a part of a movement, they want to have a good chance of winning instead of "throwing their vote away."
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
I wasn't clear enough on what my complaint was. It bothers me that there were helicopters that were not being used. Not being serviced, not being loaded, not in the air, nothing. In a situation like this, helicopters are too valuable to waste on a runway.
We are lead by accountants who will say, "I diverted X helicopters to the crisis," but never give a thought to how they are used to accomplish a goal.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Sounds good. As far as bets go, it sounds like I win either way. Either I win the dubious honor of being able to read the tea leaves Twitter vibes, or I win fewer people dying in reality.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Army/US Military instead of FEMA.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Agreed, but it's kind of like how the Secret Service was viewed up until two months ago. This is Butler, PA happening to another honored USA institution.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Any single "kid without parents" story has not been credible, just like any single "I saw a truck full of dead bodies" story is not credible. Dozens of seemingly independent stories make it more credible. I'm not 100% convinced that there is a naked kid survivor still tied to a tree, or what the maximal claim might be. I am pretty sure it is confirmed that this event has created some orphans, potentially stranding kids without any adult supervision entirely for hours, days, who knows if there's still a kid out there all alone? We wouldn't know, because they'd be alone. With communications down for so long, and people spread out in remote communities, no one can say they have the full grasp of the tragedy yet.
I am pretty convinced at this point that the death toll is in the thousands, and give 50% odds that this final death toll will not be on the official news until after the election. There are just too many reports of people saying they personally saw dead bodies, spread out across a wide geographical region.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
This report from a lineman mentions kids walking around naked looking for parents. Other reports of naked kids: https://x.com/MrsMcGeek/status/1843003502047707335.
Trying to find the video with the rope thing but it's hard to find the exact video when I have watched hundreds over the last week and X doesn't make it easy.
Correct. The complaint is that the helicopters aren't moving. They're not being loaded. They aren't going anywhere.
Edit: It's like someone said, "We need helicopters" and brought helicopters over, but hasn't decided how to use them yet. Just bringing helicopters over doesn't win any brownie points.
"4 Reefer Trucks" in one county from here: https://tiktok.com/@glutenfreebreadwinner/video/7421950512544697642
No running water at a hospital:
Mission Hospital still has not regained running water. It’s expected to take weeks for access to water to be restored region-wide, due to widespread damage to the water system.
Healthcare workers typically use running water in abundance for tasks ranging from handwashing to sterilization. They’re getting creative in its absence.
The local population is understandably filthy:
The sewage system was so backed up after the storm, Drummond said, that it wasn’t possible to flush toilets.
“We were pooping in bags and buckets,” she said.
Access to clean water was also wiped out. Patients were showing up at the hospital drenched in floodwater saturated with gasoline, chemicals and other unknown toxins.
Those people would normally be placed in showers to clean off, Drummond said. Not so after Helene barreled through, knocking out the basics of hygiene.
“It’s been really difficult to do decontamination,” Drummond said. Her team, she said, was forced to fill trash cans with whatever clean water it could find to dump over patients in an effort to rinse them.
This is from the group of people who have made it to a hospital. How many thousands are still trapped without a road in these conditions? How many dehydrated people are drinking dirty water in desperation? How long does it take before these conditions lead to disease outbreaks and deaths?
Edit: More witnesses of mass deaths: https://x.com/KristyTallman/status/1842032303637463274
People asking for more body bag donations: https://x.com/TheThe1776/status/1842120280229158963
Over 100 bodies marked in a six mile stretch of river: https://x.com/Bubblebathgirl/status/1842908549795512354
Someone seeing bodies left in trees, thought they were Halloween decorations at first: https://x.com/KellyJo_Rn/status/1841284842085880279/photo/2
Edit 2: Going to keep links to the most credible videos here so that I can reference them as people (rightfully) ask for receipts:
https://x.com/SaltyGoat17/status/1842944529172734286 - Woman saying she needs 500 body bags. County Sheriff kicked FEMA out of the county.
https://x.com/sarahsansoni/status/1842129974888644801 - Account of bodies floating in river. Similar language as some other reports, where they thought they were Halloween Costumes, then saw the faces and realized they were real bodies.
Not directly related to body count, but interesting in itself - https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1842648530436911554 Volunteer reporting that her organization has told her to flee any FEMA agents she encounters, because they will confiscate everything she has, including her search and rescue dogs (???). Also her volunteer organization has tracked that a lot of the items confiscated from their organization have been sent to migrants (at the border?) instead of citizens. She says that when she was in the Coast Guard, the Coast Guard stopped working with FEMA because they would do similar things to them.
And in response to that video, Ryan McBeth who I also vaguely trust and respect (or at least I knew of him well before this disaster which is more than I can say for most of these) said that that this is misinformation that is killing people. He was on the phone with the National Guard (all of them at once? ha, I know what he means, but not saying who exactly he spoke to or what their position is annoys me.) National Guard is declaring that people are putting themselves in danger to avoid FEMA.
I think I trust Ryan that this is what the Nat Guard is saying, I don't trust that the National Guard has it all under control. I do not believe that if all private citizens just stopped working around the government's lack of help that it would all have turned out better.
On the more credible side: Gen. Flynn asking for donations to a Rescue/Recovery team that is normally tasked by FEMA for situations like this but, "No tasking to date (not surprising)." https://x.com/GenFlynn/status/1841822490730910109
People on the ground saying that they haven't seen FEMA or didn't see any FEMA until more than 5 days after the Hurricane: https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1842977547103219797
Lastly, most professional video of the infamous Fire Chief directly preventing the rescue of a couple: https://youtube.com/watch?v=s8ICG0iaHqw
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9mo ago
Sorry, I edited it right after I noticed my mistake. It's a Blackhawk, probably Nat. Guard.
You are correct, I misremembered because there was an attempt at suing the Obama campaign but it didn't go anywhere (probably because they weren't as involved.)
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