Outlaw83
1yr ago
Sure, but they are a significant part of the nation, and more importantly, a significant minority that could get a seat on the Court in 1916. As opposed to other minorities. After all, 8 out of the other 9 seats were made up of white men, who even then, were less than half of the nation.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
Backbencher has always existed as a term in Congress - maybe it's used a little more because reporters know more about other political systems, but people who voted the way leadership told them too in decent numbers has existed since the first couple of Congresses.
Now, it is true that non-leadership has far less power than it did in past decades, but Congress has largely allowed that power to be taken away, through its own actions. That's only balooned in recent years as the freshman that get the most attention and do the best in fundraising, especially on the conservative side, openly talk about how they have no policy people on their staff, but only comms people. Which only makes it easier for leadership to have control.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
No one wants to live or work in a true panopticon.
Sure, but if you're going to be a registered agent of the state able to kill and commit violence, then yes, the citizenry should be able to see absolutely everything you do while you're acting in their name. You don't get to have all the rights that come up with being a violent agent of the state, if you don't want the responsibilities as well.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
This is sort of the most underrated thing about politics - for instance, in polling of the 2022 midterms, cancel culture and trans issues were among the things that GOP voters cared about least, let alone independent or democratic voters. So, why is it something consistently pushed by all sorts of right and centrist-leaning media, including the establishment and anti-establishment media?
Because it's something that effects college-educated right-leaning people in red areas, with a side dish of the occasional centrist getting upset at it. If you're a big state school graduate who now lives in the big urban area of your state, or a coastal area, but you're a conservative, of course you're upset about all this, and since you're more likely to be on Twitter, you'll post more about it. This becomes even more true when it's very right-wing people who have lots of clout on social media who live in insanely blue areas. Of course, say, some FOX News personality who lives in New York thinks the woke agenda out of control.
Now, I'm not saying some blue-collar worker in rural Alabama is pro-trans or thinks the 1619 project is great, it's that it's incredibly likely, despite occasional drummed stories about "50% of this class is now trans or non-binary", they likely have never heard of the 1619 project nor have their been more than maybe a handful of trans kids, if that, in the past decade. Now, immigration, or gun control, or abortion - that, they'll care about, because they believe it effects them.
The reality is if instead of spending tens of million (reportedly) on anti-trans ads this past cycle, if that money had gone into pretty bland 'hey, inflation is bad and crime is up' ads, Kevin McCarthy wouldn't have needed 18 rounds to become Speaker and Mitch might be Majority Leader again.
1.) People don't hurt parties for what they say they'll do - this is consistent. This annoys us lefties when the GOP consistently (outside of a small period when Trump initially won) want to privatize or radically cut Social Security or Medicare, and voters in focus groups literally don't believe it. For both sides, the voters only hurt them when they actually do things.
2.) There was a very decent chunk of what could be described as 'leave me the hell alone' voters to Trump - anti-immigration, pro-gun, but also pro-choice. Blue collar non-college educated non-religious voters who don't hate religious people, but also don't like God botherers sticking their nose into their business.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
I mean, the reality is, with the advent of mass media, people will only put up with what they see as people within their coalition being hurt by people outside of their coalition, and being told they can't stop it because of some lines on a map. That started, at least in the US, w/ Uncle Tom's Cabin, and has only expanded with the advent of radio, TV, and now social media. People at least get nations are nations - the argument over state's rights was shot in Appotomax, and then put into the ground at Selma.
Not to bring Civil Right's into it, do you honestly think the 60's and 70's would've gone better if interracial marriage stated illegal until the early-to-mid 80's, which is when it crossed 50% approval in Gallup polling?
We're a representative democracy bounded by a Constitution that guarantees rights - we've never been, and nobody close to power has ever really advocated for total legislative supremacy or direct democracy.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
I'm no expert, but I think the Donbass is highly likely, but Crimea is pretty unlikely.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
Sure, if Putin kicks the bucket, all kind of interesting things can happen, especially if the carrot of "drop all this silliness and accept you're a second-tier power who could sell all the oil and gas you want to Europe and Central Asia, but continue to treat your own people like crap, and we won't care since we think your authoritarianism is f'ing you long term" is put forward, which I think is entirely possible.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
Yup, there's always these polls that show "x of professors used to be Republicans in y year, but now..." when I can guarantee you that most professors who were still registered as Republican in say, 1980, hadn't voted for a Republican since maybe, Nixon, the first time, and were only registered Republican's because of weird ethnic coalitional politics where they grew up, or being in one of the weird places where the GOP were the more left-leaning party (like say, the South, and that's even kind of questionable).
Put it this way, the amount of Reagan-voting professors in 1980 is probably similar to the amount of Trump-voting professors in 2022.
Also, as noted, there are a lot of moderate professors who'd vote for a center-right European party that was liberal socially, but I suppose most of the people upset about woke professors wouldn't be too happy about that either.
Finally, the culture war, as far as "cancel culture" or "trans issues" go are low salience issues, even for GOP voters, as seen in midterm exist polls. In reality, it's the bugaboo of general right-wing social reactionaries, and centrists stuck in D+50 urban areas. Yes, if you're a standard-issue centrist Dem who works at a college or in media, you're probably annoyed by what the woke kids want to do. But, be like Matt Yglesias or Jonathan Chait, and complain enough online about them that they get annoyed by you, while also writing a lot about how Ron DeSantis voted a lot to cut Social Security & Medicare, and that Republican's still want to ban abortion, as opposed to spending all your time on the woke thing of the moment.
Even CRT/school closures as an issue, is kind of sketchy - people point to 2021 and Virginia, but if you really look into things, voting patterns show the standard drop in voting for everybody as is standard for off-year VA Governor elections, except for 70+ voters, which tells me the CRT thing was a bugaboo to older conservative voters, and that's about it. Even DeSantis and his massive win, is more accurately connected to general shifts in Florida's population (big increase in Venezuelan refugees + more older conservatives from midwes states moving in + COVID "refugees) + DeSantis doing non-conservative things (like using ARP money to raise teacher salaries + broadly supported environmental protections + not f'ng up post-hurricane) + as a bonus, the anti-woke stuff + a massive drop in turnout among Democratic voters. I forget the exact numbers, but only 80% of Democrat's turned out in 2022 compared to 2018, while 107% of Republican's did, and that's not all changes in voting registration.
Now, personally, as a leftie, I'm actually kind of OK w/ Florida becoming a Republican vote sink. Yes, all right-leaning people, upset about your woke swing state, move to Tampa. Upset Michigan has a Democratic trifecta, hit the road to West Palm Beach. Pennsylvania not banning abortion got you down? Panama Beach is looking lovely.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
I mean, being an Eisenhower-era moderate on civil rights made you a conservative by 1975 in many ways. Remember, Eisenhower actually looked back at putting Warren on the Court as a mistake. Social mores have always changed like this. It's just for a lot of people, it's the first time it's happening to them, so they think it's new, and proof this cultural change is different. There were people grousing in Gen X's perfect year of 1993 about how you couldn't say certain things anymore, and such.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
Yup, when people talk about this, I always want to be fair to both sexes.
Yes, for a man, going out to a bar, hitting on a bunch of women, and possibly after spending way too much money, going home to somebody you're moderately attracted too, only for her to either not talk to you again and/or become super clingy seems worse than playing AAAA video games for a few hours, then watching HQ porn w/ amateurs that look better than any woman you could ever have to get off.
OTOH, for a woman, getting hit on by weirdos, unattractive guys, and aggressive assholes, all to lead to a situation where you maybe go to bed to a guy who lasts for a little time in bed and/or tries to push you to do things you're uncomfortable with/dangerous, and then you have to worry about a stalker or worse seems worse than watching a Hallmark Holiday Movie marathon, then reading Amazon Kindle erotic fiction you get via Kindle Unlimited to get off via your vibrator.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
This isn't what happens - it's just even the increased teacher pay lags behind other white collar professions, so teachers feel underpaid. There are plenty of ways that a person could be upset with education spending, but administrators aren't stealing teachers' raises.
But yeah, many Republican's used the money for states in the American Rescue Plan to raise teacher's pay in many states (fully legally - not saying it was untoward that way), which is why in retrospect, as a partisan Democrat, the Democrat's should've not given largely Republican governors such a giant slush fund so they could look good to low-info swing voters (again, not a shot at low info voters, just a statement of fact), but instead maybe added a 2nd year of the expanded child tax credit, or something else along those lines. But, unfortunately, we overlearned the lessons of the 2009 recession where states and localities really did hit a massive funding crunch, which really didn't happen under COVID, something many people thought would happn.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
I mean, the reality is even socially conservative African-American Democrat's care about gay marriage and abortion far less than they do, say, about Social Security, health care, gun violence, or racism. Because all those things affect you more. Meanwhile, the leadership and median active member of megachurches are fairly comfortable socially conservative whites, so they can focus on culture war issues that don't directly affect them, the same way, say, cuts in food stamps may affect the congregation of a black church.
The reality is, if you deeply care about the type of social issues that white conservatives do, and you're African-American, you're likely already voting for the GOP or you're very elderly.
Also, even putting that aside, as a whole, minorities are still closer to liberal whites on various social issues than conservative whites who are in a worl of their own.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
My larger point was that's the whole Florida advertisement right now - don't like the wokes ruining your state? Come to Florida!
I was just pointing out, it may be actually a bad thing for the GOP long-term if this continues to happen.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
I'd argue Evil Fantasy Catholic's, because there's a hierarchy, are easier to write into a fantasy story than Evil Fantasy Protestant's.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
"This is coming from a group of hucksters that have been proven to be lying multiple times," and then link to the various takedowns. Sure, it won't convince right-wing entertainers on Twitter or anti-vax folks, but Pfizer doesn't care about that.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
It's not so much the media doesn't care about white victims - it's that the African-American community is organized in such a way that if somebody gets shot by the police, somebody in that family knows a pastor or a community organizer who knows another pastor or a local politician who knows somebody reasonably famous or a prominent journalist to get it out there.
Meanwhile, probably half of the white victims' own family will back the cops over the victim.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
As mentioned below, Nancy Pelosi has more protection, but she wasn't there, and since historically, with very few exceptions, violence against politicians in America is 'crazed weirdo with barely coherent thoughts who does it in public', nobody thinks somebody is going to try to break-in to a prominent politician's home and commit violence.
Hell, even at the height of political violence in the 70's, while Italian Prime Ministers were getting kidnapped, our violence left-wingers...bombed some post offices and office buildings, but made sure the bombs went off when nobody would be there.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
The reason why a lot of people are in jail, is because most people are dumb, not people who put a lot of thought into what they're doing. The very fact so many people online think of ways why criminals could get away with thnigs is...why they're not criminals.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
A better com of AOC is Cruz - both intelligent people, who legitimately hold their beliefs, but it's also understandable why the opposite 'tribe' dislikes them. Like, I get why conservatives dislike AOC - i's part of the reason as a leftie, I do like her.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
There's a reason why smart socialists actually respect a paper like the Financial Times - because, yes, it's written for the rich, but the type of rich person who subscribes to the Financial Times wants accurate information, which means, almost by accident, the Financial Times sounds more left-wing than much of the mainstream media on some economic issues.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
The reason was his whole shtick was "talking about being a creepy weirdo, and not being that bad," and regardless of how terrible you think the NYT is, there's a difference between vague rumors and two comedians going on the record.
Outlaw83
1yr ago
The problem for conservatives is I'd bet the 2022 BYU class is more liberal than the same 22-year olds from the same communities who didn't go to BYU, at least in heavily Mormon areas. For what counts as 'liberalism' and 'conservatism' today, simply going to college, current college, even in a fairly mehly woke large state school, it's a machine where you meet up with lots of people doing wacky things you might not be comfortable with, turns you into a cringy normie center-left liberal, and this is true of left-wingers who show up to college as well
I mean, yes, I agree, and I think every Justice on the Court, even the ones I think are terrible and are making the country worse are well-qualified in that they know the law, etc. Like, I think Clarence Thomas has done irreparable harm, but I'm also sure he's smart enough to figure out arguments to get what he wants in an opinion.
If you go through the arguments and opinions of every single Justice in history, they all make mistakes or get caught up in a bad argument, because they're not robots.
if anything, due to the bias toward judges w/ elite credentials, the Supreme Court today has far more well-qualified people than when it was explicitly a place for political favors, whether it was former Congressman who were never judges, or anything else. It wasn't until the Nixon era the idea that the Supreme Court was a place for elite legal minds to put down judgement was even something thought of by many people at all, considering even Eisenhower named Earl Warren to the Court, basically to get his support at the RNC in 1952.
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