PokerPirate
3d ago
C-nile greybeard
Worth reading the post just for this pun.
The idea that all arms-limitation treaties are meaningless "toilet paper" is absurd.
For example, the previously-mentioned CWC has UN inspectors visiting the chemical production facilities of signatory parties (and these inspections regularly happen even in US facilities). These inspections allow states to be reasonably confident that other states are not mass-producing chemical weapons and meaningfully reduce the risk of accidental war. (Notably, Iraq was not party to the CMC prior to 2003, did not have these regular inspections, and so international observers were uncertain about Iraq's stockpiles and production capabilities. Saddam Hussein gambled that this uncertainty would make war less likely, but these non-existent chemical weapons were ultimately how Bush/Powell convinced the Coalition of the Willing to invade Iraq.)
Arms control treaties are rarely designed to change a state's behavior during a war. Instead they are designed to change the way states prepare for war. These changes in preparation do impact whether and how wars are actually fought.
PokerPirate
3d ago
All US landmines now self-destruct in two days or less, in most cases four hours.
Wow. I had always thought they were supposed to live on the order of months. I really struggle to understand the military utility of such short-lived mines. Surely any situation in which you need to deny an area for only 4 hours, it is already unsafe to be deploying the mines in the first place.
This is a non sequitur. Good treaties define Schelling points, and Schelling points do not need enforcement.
As I mentioned before, no one has a military powerful enough to enforce the CWC on the US and yet the US is voluntarily complying because it makes the US a safer place (and increases trade/commerce) to allow these foreign inspections.
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