RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
19d ago
I agree, states and religions could just be the same kind of thing fundamentally.
The Arabic empire and Islam were at one point one and the same, before splitting apart. The USSR and communism were, at one point, virtually the same. Most communists took their opinions and marching orders from Moscow.
Only ideologies and religions as we know them don't have that territorial dimension of a state, they're not quite so powerful most of the time.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
9d ago
This is pretty poor behaviour. I'm seeing videos of Mexico fans making massive noise, lighting fireworks outside the hotel the English team is playing in in a (failed) attempt to disrupt their sleep. That's obviously crass and bad behaviour. How is this any better, just because it's done behind closed doors?
The US was also using tricks with the Iranian team I recall, making them travel into and then quickly leave the country.
It's just a game, not a trade agreement or a war or anything worth cheating over. What is the point? Why not at least show a little magnanimity or sportsmanship?
this is significantly less likely now that frontier models are going to be stuck in Uncle Sam's basement
I think that Anthropic is being targeted, not AI generally. The Trump administration does not like Anthropic for obvious cultural reasons and a reasonable suspicion that if Anthropic got hard power via AI, they'd use it to crush Trump and gang. Trump faction wouldn't treat Google, Microsoft or Amazon this way, there are lots of cozy interrelations there. The employees might not like Trump but they'll still help fund his ballroom. Recall the OpenAI, Facebook, Palantir executives getting sworn in as lieutenant colonels in the US military. Or Nvidia getting away with far more grievous harm to US interests via looking the other way with smuggling of their chips to China, lobbying against export controls, failing to track where their chips go. But Jensen knows how to court Trump and Anthropic doesn't. Jensen also has stocks (the biggest and the best!), so it's be costly for the avaricious elements of the US government to harm Nvidia's interests no matter how strategically obvious it is. You just don't sell high tech capital goods to strategic rivals, nevermind if it's 2 years behind or not! Anthropic stock is owned by VCs, not senators and elites or anyone who enjoys an index fund. Anthropic have no such financial pull factor.
But also, I'm reminded of how the big players in nuclear research stopped publishing openly in the 1940s...
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
15d ago
"Forget about the industrial-scale killing of unborn children, parades devoted to sodomy and sexual deviance, pornography, breakdown of marriage rituals - the third biggest movie of the year's main character's name has Grace in it and he has to consider whether to sacrifice himself or not!'
Huh?
I confess I haven't read the book or watched the film, just skimmed the plot on wikipedia. But it's not exactly the Sistine Chapel! Looking at the themes, I see scientific materialism ranking ahead of Christian values.
The water I'm swimming in sure looks like it's about 98% iron oxide.
America has lost. The goal of the war was regime change, the goal failed immediately and predictably.
Basically everything you said is wrong or unfounded. Firstly, the straits are not actually open (mines that were laid still remain there!). Shipping is not currently passing through.
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
https://straits.live/
There's $300 billion that the Gulf states are apparently going to provide to Iran as war reparations, plus another $24 billion in unfrozen funds. So Iran may be getting a lump sum instead of ongoing fees on the straits. Note that war reparations are not usually paid to defeated countries...
because we destroyed the nuclear facilities they would need to use it
Destroyed them twice over now, after the 2025 air raids. When are people going to develop a basic level of skepticism about US bombing and these amazing claims made by the US military? General Caine said it, so it must be true?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3mo ago
also probably for purely aesthetic reasons
Aesthetics are a terrible way to judge a candidate.
It's true that Trump is behaving in a stupid and reckless way and this is causing considerable damage to America. Honest, capable, sober people can also cause considerable damage to America, perhaps even more damage. Even Mamdani can do a lot of damage to America. They just have bad values and so all their good qualities are worthless or even negative.
Would you prefer pointless wars for Israel but with a nicer facade? That's a Rubio presidency for you.
What about a serious, sober, effective campaign to wreck the criminal justice system, have DAs and prosecutors just put offenders out onto the streets to victimize normal people? That's boring, 'sensible' politics, that's what Soros has been doing, what Mamdani would probably do.
Consider Judge Russell Clark. In 1985 he decreed that since bussing (another sensible but torturous and massively harmful social experiment with predictably bad results) couldn't be mandated to desegregate Kansas inner-city schools, he would make city schools so attractive that white kids would voluntarily come back. He told the schools to buy everything they wanted without regard for cost. So they lowered student per teacher ratio, they built robotics clubs, swimming pools with underwater viewing rooms, a model UN with simultaneous translation capacity. Naturally this was paid for by doubling property taxes in the district. Somehow a judge had power to do that in the retarded American system where anything must be done to prevent segregation.
The results: an ocean of corruption, ballooning of administrative workers, administrative dysfunction, test scores no higher, somehow the inner city schools got even blacker than before. Dismal failure in all respects at the price of a few billion dollars.
I bet this judge is very sensible, very normal, a fine dinner guest. He's also a massive wrecker of society, squandering billions of dollars pointlessly. There are many similar stories in the US and around the world.
Just because something looks lawful and officially correct, it doesn't mean it's good. Trump can definitely be bad! But you should not assume that people who appear good actually are good.
Consider Europe. Run by very boring, sensible moderates. Run into the ground, fallen well behind the US, despite all the dumb wars and Trump and assorted incompetence. Real wreckers wear pantsuits.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2mo ago
ANZAC Day and Welcome to Country
Anzac Day is an Australian national holiday on 25th April each year, devised to honour the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps who fought in WW1. Gallipoli is one of the great national myths of Australia, at the start of the the transition from colony to real country. There’s a myth of ‘lions led by donkeys’ in that the British were too slow to secure their beachhead, their officers were having tea on the beach and then we got stuck in trench warfare. This is confected but helped solidify Australia as a nation distinct from Britain.
There are Anzac values like bravery, mateship, camaraderie and ingenuity: William Scurry’s self-firing ‘drip rifle’ that was used to mask the retreat. If you went to school in Australia you’d have memories of a student mangling The Last Post on a bugle while in Assembly, everyone saying ‘lest we forget’ and speeches about sacrifice and duty and values.
More recently, there has been booing during a Welcome to Country ceremony conducted in the Melbourne Dawn Service for Anzac Day A transcript of the Welcome to Country, from Bunurong Elder and Senior Cultural Heritage Officer Mark Brown:
“I am uncle Mark Brown, elder and senior cultural heritage officer of the Bunurong people. And today I'm here to welcome everybody to my father's country. Beautiful Bunarong country.
But before we do that, as always, we take a moment, we pay our acknowledgements, and we pay our respects. We pay our respect to all of my ancestors. We pay our respect to all of my elders. And we pay our respect to all of my community members, past, present, and emerging, And we acknowledge the continuous and unbroken connection to country for the Bunurong people.
We also pay acknowledgements and respects to all traditional custodians of Australia, Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders. And we pay acknowledgements and respects to all of my indigenous brothers and sisters from around the world who work, rest, live or play on Bunurong country. We acknowledge their continuous and unbroken connection to country for all of their people, and we thank each and every single one of them for being here with us.
But today, on the sacred lands of the Bunurong people, we all gather in the spirit of respect, unity, and reconciliation. And this welcome, this welcome is an opportunity. It is an opportunity for us to honour and respect the deep cultural heritage of the Bunurong people of the Kulin nation, whose elders and community members have generously looked after these lands for countless generations.
My people have a deep spiritual connection to these lands, encompassing all of our rivers, our mountains, our coastal areas, and all of our beautiful bushlands that surround us today. Our traditional territory spans from the Werribee River in the west and moves to Diggers Rest in the north. We follow it over to the Dandenong Ranges, the Yarra Valley, and down to Wilson's Prom. We encompass the top end of Tasmania, which we share with the beautiful Palawa people. French, Phillip, King and Flinders islands are also ours.
And these are the traditional lands and territories of the Bunurong people that I welcome everybody to today. And as we gather here today, we gather in the respect of all of my people, my family, the fighting Gunditj and the Bunurong.
So Wominjeka and welcome to beautiful Bunurong country, my father's country.
Thank you."
‘Welcome to Country’ is a new myth-building rite that’s conducted at just about all major and minor public occasions in Australia these days, where an Aboriginal comes and gives an address and affirms, in some more or less nebulous way, that his people are the real owners of the land. Maybe they're traditional custodians. Or perhaps 'sovereignty was never ceded'. Sometimes they're really small and quick, when it's just white people reading out a script in a monotone as a preamble to some trivial meeting, even zoom meetings sometimes.
One thing that I observe is this interchangeable use of the first person. He uses ‘my people’, ‘my indigenous brothers’ and also ‘our rivers’, ‘islands are ours’. Yet he also says how ‘we pay our respects to all of my elders’. He’s switching from being ‘I am here as part of all Australians present’ to ‘I am one of the true landowners, with a continuous and unbroken connection to my country’ as he sees fit. He’s paying respect as an Australian, on behalf of all others present, to himself as an indigenous elder and presenting it as an opportunity.
Maybe he adlibs too, trying to be more aggressive in the face of booing. It’s visible that he’s sad and upset about being booed.
War
Then there’s the reference to fighting Gunditijmara.
In essence, whites crushed Aboriginals wherever they came into conflict during colonization. Aboriginals largely lacked the martial culture and organization of Native Americans, who managed to inflict occasional defeats on white troops and massacre civilians with more success. The Comanche launched huge raids into Mexico and depopulated the north, did a lot of damage to Texas. None of that ever happened in Australia, it was one-sided in the extreme.
“It's believed that around 80 settlers died; while the Gunditjmara suffered the loss of 6,500 of their people, from a total of 7000.”
The SBS (state-run Australian ethnic media outlet) attribute the crushing defeat in this war of resistance partially to the Native Police, aboriginal troops with white officers. It seems that is one of the few kinds of multiculturalism that the SBS doesn’t favour:
“They wouldn’t have done what they did if they had been in a right mindset, and their tradition," said Ms Lovett.
"You reward them with shiny (things) and make them feel important. Because they hadn’t felt important for a long time. They were victims of what happened to all of us."
The whole article is full of cope really, glorifying sheep-stealing raids as an epic struggle of resistance, which brings me back to my main point.
The aboriginal tribes of Australia lost incredibly badly in warfare, it was possibly the most crushing and one-sided defeat in history, largely inflicted by adhoc militias and settlers rather than troops.
Peace
Then the aboriginals won a series of incredible political victories, despite being generally hopeless.
Today they get about $6 billion AUD a year in indigenous specific services, targeted exclusively at them, in addition to regular spending. Their tax input is minimal. Expenditure per person for aboriginals is roughly twice that for non-indigenous people (in large part due to how they live out in remote locations where it’s hard to provide goods and services) and also because they’re incredibly dysfunctional, requiring welfare and adult supervision.
They get partial native title over 70% of Australia's landmass, albeit mostly the desolate parts and block development.
Petrol in remote areas needs additives put in it to stop them sniffing it and suffering brain damage.
Indigenous youth make up 55% of those in youth detention despite being only 7% of the youth. Adults, despite being only 3% of the national population, represent 33% of the prison population. They are the most incarcerated people in the world because they commit enormous amounts of crime, mostly against eachother.
There are aboriginal towns in Australia 30x more violent than the US, even more violent than the nastier American cities.
They commit 30-80x more domestic violence against women than the Australian average.
Alice Springs at one point had the world’s highest stabbing rate, mostly aboriginal women being stabbed. It hasn't significantly improved.
There are occasional ‘interventions’ when white politicians get appalled by how violent and brutal their remote towns are and decide to ban alcohol and pornography. Australian politicians love banning things. But the situation was bad, there was and remains an epidemic of abuse and child rape in Aboriginal areas, children getting STDs:
90% of school age children in some places suffering abuse.
There’s a cycle where the situation gets really bad, then the government cracks down, left-wingers and NGOs decry it as racist and authoritarian and eventually the crackdown ends. There’s no positive long term change, only expenditure of money. The only thing that’s long-term is white people being blamed, somehow white colonization is said to have caused all this pedophilia and domestic violence, general incompetence. In truth they were already doing that when whites got here, they had ancient traditions of infanticide, ritual cannibalism, scarification and intertribal warfare. I don’t see how British colonization made the aboriginals horrifically violent and rapey to eachother but Ireland remains fine despite centuries of colonization and harsh treatment. Who loses their land and decides to become a pedophile or beat their wife to a pulp?
More realistically they were just inherently stupid to begin with, which is why they never got around to agriculture or more advanced social organization. How much time and effort needs to be expended trying to make these people meet the standards of others? Why expend effort trying to make them act like white people, while also encouraging and valorizing them for their indigeneity, for sitting on Australia for 60,000 years with little to show for it? Where is the value in this? Why even try? A billion dollars represents hundreds of lifetimes of labour, taken away by the state.
Some of my friends worked with the failed referendum to give Aboriginals a Voice to Parliament (a great tool for hectoring whites and asking for more money, more privileges). The ‘real’ black aboriginal elders, the ones who aren’t cherrypicked speakers, the ones they brought in from the bush to provide a more authentic perspective, they had no conceptual understanding of legislation or abstract concepts generally, consulting them was impossible. It was like they were drunk, my politically correct friends said. Maybe they were drunk. The elite aboriginal activists weren’t that much better, constantly trying to do crazy self-defeating things. This brings me to Lydia Thorpe.
A left-leaning Melbourne seat elected a partially aboriginal woman, Lydia Thorpe, to the Senate who made a complete embarrassment of herself and the Greens Party. She was in a relationship with an outlawed bikie gang ex-president while serving on the parliamentary law enforcement committee. She applauded an arson attack of the Old Parliament House as the colonial system burning down.
In a June 2022 interview, Thorpe said that the parliament has "no permission to be here [in Australia]" and that she’s a parliament member "only" so she can "infiltrate" the "colonial project." She added that the Australian flag had "no permission to be" in the land.
She heckled King Charles III at Parliament House and claimed she had sworn allegiance to Queen Elizabeth II’s ‘hairs’ rather than ‘heirs’. She then walked it back when it was pointed out that she’d signed a document for her oath and the document was spelled correctly.
She got into an altercation outside a Melbourne strip club, approaching white patrons and telling them they had small penises and had stolen her land. She’s since been permanently banned from that strip club.
In short, she’s a racist stereotype given flesh, a single mother at 17. An idiot who thinks she’s smarter than she is and still in the Senate.
Democracy is not a suicide pact, why would any normal people tolerate wreckers who are openly trying to undermine and destroy the country that they think is illegitimate, who clearly hold their oaths in total contempt? If this woman had any actual power, it is overwhelmingly clear that she'd use it solely for her co-ethnics and to extract from whites, which was my problem with the Voice to Parliament. Ironically, she opposed that, instead demanding a treaty where various aboriginal tribes would be considered like independent states.
As a group, Aboriginals make Sub-Saharan Africans look like paragons of civilization. Some did at least develop kingdoms, metalworking and agriculture. Aboriginals did not develop Australia in any way recognizable to civilized peoples. One can only take their word for it that they have a deep, invisible, spiritual connection to the land.
And yet despite all this dysfunction and incompetence, it’s fashionable and useful to have indigenous heritage. Sometimes universities boast on social media over their blue eyed, white-faced ‘indigenous’ medical graduates, who exploit the extra help given to nominally aboriginal students and their higher IQs, less dysfunctional family upbringings to get ahead. If they’re even aboriginal at all and not just lying.
Aboriginals get their customary law partially applied in some cases, they get more lenient treatment in the real courts, with judges and police incentivized informally to reduce their incarceration, find non-punitive ways of managing their dysfunction.
They get another $AUD billion a year in preferential govt contracting.
They can even be brought in to make Anzac Day speeches where about 85% of the content is them personally claiming the country that the fallen, overwhelmingly white, soldiers fought and died for. ANZACs were not mentioned at all in Brown’s speech, only affirmations to his people's claim to the country and these unsubtle implications that he's the authority who decides who other people pay respect to. Then they take a speaking fee for that. Meanwhile, war memorials are vandalized with graffiti such as ‘the colony will fall’…
It’s as if they won a war and are enjoying the spoils from the conquered people. Isn't this world-historically bizarre?
Yet there’s been booing from the audience, organized by younger and more radical rightwingers presumably. Naturally the booing was condemned by the state premiers and those who actually run the country as disrespectful to the war dead - though none of the soldiers who spoke about the war dead were booed. Some of the more rightwing senators are taking easier potshots like ‘it’s inappropriate to have a hat on while making a speech in a Dawn Service’ or denying that veterans need to be welcomed back to their country. They don't deny the central case generally, that whites need to pay respects and pay tribute to a conquered people. Just not on Anzac Day.
Here’s a twitter topic if you want to look at some other perspectives.
Why is there only booing about this? In 1870 Bismarck edited a single letter to make the tone a little curt, like Wilhelm had abruptly rebuffed the French ambassador and sent a low-ranked officer to convey the message. Bismarck had it leaked on Bastille day and that started a major war with France. Bismarck is considered the aggressor, people generally accepted at the time the French couldn’t accept an insult like that! Hundreds of thousands died over national honour.
The conquered are giving laws to the conquerors.
This is a microcosm of the key trend of the last 100 years, whites who forcibly conquered 90% of the world bending over backwards to be nice and get forgiveness from the peoples they conquered. The conquered peoples quickly organized to take maximum possible advantage of this bizarre blunder, organizing more or less adeptly to demand treaties, land rights, welfare payments, reparations and special ceremonies to further legitimize and expand this political superiority.
Despite the passivity, it is what war is all about: obtaining land and obtaining wealth or labour from others. Political and social status. Securing these things from challengers. That is what wars are fought for, only the means are non-kinetic.
There seems to be a concept that after enough of these political ceremonies, apologies, reparations (formal or just via progressive taxation), criminal justice reforms and affirmative action black people (or blak as they sometimes call themselves in Australia) are going to be happy and we’ll all dance together in harmony. Some day the Gap will be Closed, that's the ostensible plan that Australia pursues.
If you give people money and status because you conquered them, they’re going to use this and try to get more wealth from you. If you pay for something, you get more of it. It creates incentives for professional political workers like Elder Brown to show up and hone rabblerousing, rhetorical, guilt-tripping skills. It creates incentives to be more strident and demanding to prove ideological purity and righteousness. And there’s also a massive sunk cost fallacy amongst white people. Many officials, taxpayers and donors don’t want to believe that they’ve spent billions, hundreds of billions, trillions paying subsidies, apologising to and working for low-performers who aren’t going to get their act together anytime soon and certainly aren’t going to be grateful for it. It would be incredibly embarrassing to change course now. In fact, after paying all this lip service to colonial sins and a couple trillion in foreign aid to Africa, the Global Majority of black and brown people are multiplying and migrating over to Europe, America, Australia as ‘climate refugees’, looking for more money, welfare and special privileges. Ireland never colonized anyone, yet isn't escaping diversity.
The Israelis don’t make this mistake, there aren’t any Palestinian land acknowledgements in the West Bank. They make good use of language and ritual, as did the Australians of old. In the 19th century, Australian newspapers would report on how colonists would eagerly ‘disperse’ or ‘duly and efficiently pound’ aboriginals. The Native Police would ‘give them a dressing down’, a ‘thumping’ or ‘a shaking up’.
In Israel there’s all this talk about security zones, neutralizing, mowing the lawn, suspected militants, human shields, Dahiya doctrine. This is a kind of political warfare, on the other side there are words like Holocaust, Nazi and genocide, for Australia ‘Invasion Day’ rather than Australia Day.
We obsess far too much about physical weapons, hypersonic missiles, tanks and drones. They are important in conflicts where both sides are politically strong and united: traditional interstate wars. But political weapons are more important, they control that unity and self-conception. What good is it winning wars if you lose the peace?
Better not to fight at all, especially if hopelessly outgunned and outmatched. Better to just take wealth and land slowly through legal means, engineer new rites to legitimize authority and status and national self-concept. Even traditional warfare is a contest of willpower, the capacity to endure pain and fight on for a given reward, it’s a test of political strength.
AI
No post of mine would be complete without a digression on AI... Bunurong Elder Mark Brown has an AI-written website hawking his services:
He even made an AI-written statement decrying how he was booed on linkedin:
Along with some AI jeers at Charlie Kirk too:
Charlie Kirk deserved the fate he brought on himself. When you spend your life fueling division, spreading lies, and tearing down communities, it is only a matter of time before that same poison turns back on you. His downfall isn’t tragedy — it’s justice catching up with him. The irony is that the hate he spread became the weight that dragged him down.
My assumption is that a default ChatGPT wouldn’t quite outright say ‘Charlie Kirk deserved his fate’ even though it’s inclined in that direction. I think Brown just left the memory feature on by default and it acclimated itself to his views. I imagine it would refuse his rightwing equivalent. I haven’t tested this though and don’t use ChatGPT, I’m interested in any thoughts others have with that, or other things mentioned.
I observe also that the culture war is global and only getting more global with automated cheap translation and the primacy of US media, especially social media. And AI acts as a force multiplier. I doubt Brown would’ve bothered to make a statement on Kirk if he had to write it out himself.
One wonders whether Brown is a real person or just a mouth reading out AI speeches. After all, you can’t hear an em dash as easily as you can read it. Beneath all these high-minded words, there’s this perpetual search for cash: $770 AUD for a Welcome to Country, $4500 for a keynote speech, $90 for AI designed t-shirts and hoodies. Art created by AI (made by whites and Asians), printed on T-shirts (made in America from global parts, so whites and Asians), justified by a synthetic social status.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
17d ago
All that is kind of true but how can a country with state sanctioned, state-promoted pride parades even be anything but anti-Christian? Both the medium and the message are pretty explicitly anti-Christian? How can a country with legal gay marriage be considered Christian, never mind divorce rates?
Even if Russia's goal is just vaguely seeming to be against globohomo, that's still way closer to Christianity than the Western countries who are promoting, spreading, directing globohomo.
I don't believe in the 'based trad Russia' meme. But in terms of social vice, it's hardly worse than America or the West generally. Abortions: 13.1 per 1000 vs 14.4 in America, 20 in UK. Russia is number 7 in drug deaths per capita but America is far ahead at number 1 worldwide, 4x Russia.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/drug-use/by-country
Trying but mostly failing to be anti-LGBT in the military seems a lot more Christian than promoting LGBT and diversity in the military. However cynically Putin may use Christian rhetoric he's 10x more Christian than the average Western leader who's mentally redefined Christianity to mean 'more leftism but with cross aesthetics'.
See this is an important and valuable post. He knows my ideas are a threat to him. He's not interested in abstract logic or the interests of other ethnic groups. Nobody could ever persuade him to give up power or his co-ethnics position for the sake of some universal value or the interests of others. The thought would never enter his mind. He would much rather fight and die than lose power. He doesn't spare a sentence to justify his case based on universal values (besides the value that blacks deserve more), he holds the very idea of justifying in contempt. Why should he need to justify his ethnic group's position?
He sees a threat to the power of his ethnic group and he rails against it as hard as he can. Because losing power is innately bad. Anything that reduces the power of blacks obviously threatens him, even if it's a random person deep down in the comments of a tiny internet forum speaking with people who either already agree or despise the idea. The interests of other groups? Totally irrelevant.
Likewise he appeals so deftly to the mythology that's been so painstakingly established, like I want blacks enslaved again. Who thinks blacks would add value as slaves? Machinery would do a much better job. But it's a great uniting narrative.
This is politics in action, that's the core of it fundamentally. You get power for you and yours, any threats to your power you identify and rail against. You unite your allies against the threat with myths, songs, poems and culture.
The guy who doesn't even proofread his final dramatic statement 'I'LL NEVER BE ACCEPT BEING A SLAVE!!!' has given us a masterclass in how normal people, non-WEIRD, non hyper-intellectual people actually see things, how things actually work. First-rate post that many here could learn valuable lessons from.
This is how and why schools give blacks all these bonus marks for admission, why Biden promised to appoint a black woman to the supreme court, why there are all these subsidies and contracts for nominally black businesses that then subcontract to whites when work is needed, why there is affirmative action in hiring, why there is an outcry when blacks are shot by police and why the AP style guide capitalizes Black and not white. It's a highly effective political strategy when left uncountered.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
27d ago
'The centerpiece of Iran’s foreign policy is gone'
The centerpiece of Iran's foreign policy is not and was not nuclear weapons. Khameini already had a fatwa against nuclear weapons. The US assassinated him, he who already promised not to acquire nuclear weapons. If the Supreme Leader's decades old religious decree can't be trusted, why should a piece of paper be trusted?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1mo ago
It doesn't take a Thiel-tier political genius to see that 'starting a guaranteed-loss war with Iran' will greatly damage Trump and perceived Trump allies.
Fuel prices were very damaging to the Biden administration. Humiliation/botched withdrawal in Afghanistan was pretty damaging. Amp both factors up considerably, what does that do to Trump?
Can't keep draining the SPR forever, can't keep manipulating markets with announcements forever. How can Trump survive midterms if there is a fuel crisis? There will be a fuel crisis by September unless Iran opens the straits. How can Trump survive midterms if he makes objectively humiliating concessions to Iran, who is not exactly beloved by Republican voters? They've been told that the war has been won about a dozen times by now, so a humiliating defeat is not going to go down well.
There can't be an 'Only Trump could go to Iran' moment like Nixon, not after a surprise attack Trump started. Few consider world-historically deft diplomacy to be a Trump strength either.
Thiel is to the left as Soros is to the far-right, they hate him a lot. But the left actually goes after enemies with institutional power.
Now I predict someone is going to come and suggest a military breakthrough will rescue the day for Trump and America. But what military breakthrough can there be? If there are amazing anti-drone weapons or other wonderweapons, why haven't they been used already? Or used against the Houthis earlier? If the straits can be secured, why haven't they been secured already? If there is ongoing work to degrade Iranian capabilities that will soon show fruits, why has the US been so quick to look for a diplomatic solution, why accept a partial truce that logically enables Iran to regroup and prepare for further fighting? If the blockade was going to degrade Iranian oil infrastructure why hasn't this happened already or when Iran lowered oil production in 2020? If Iran were to be more aggressively bombed, how would this prevent Iran destroying more oil infrastructure and heightening the fuel crisis?
If Mythos was near AGI/ASI I don't think Anthropic would release it to the general public. If it's AGI then people will not be using it to make crappy 3js oneshot games on twitter, they will be using it mostly to make the next generation, with the side gig being products worth billions of dollars!
I think Fable is AGI 'in the aggregate' in that it has all the separate abilities needed to match high/peak human output. But it can't string them together quite well enough. You can't just prompt it 'write me a first rate fantasy novel' and then have it whir for 48 hours drafting and drafting and brainstorming and get 70K words output, where it's all great and would make you good money on Amazon. It'd be cliched or have plot holes even though it's legitimately quite strong as a writer. Time horizon is too short.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1mo ago
If there's a crash, I predict it'll be due to energy prices and the war in Iran, not AI.
Anthropic is nearly profitable, or supposed to have been profitable in Q2. Some say that's phoney accounting and Anthropic says profits may not be maintained. But it seems that major investments are paying off. Furthermore, AI models are getting continually better as with Fable most recently. This trend will continue, bigger and better models working for longer need more compute to run them and so justify further intensifying investment. I guess that argument is forbidden by your post. But if it is The Singularity, if it is a New Paradigm then presumably that's good for stocks!
Anyway, energy is more important to the economy than AI right now. You can't just shut off a huge amount of oil and gas production without ramifications! The 1973 oil shock is a useful precedent. The market seems to have been expecting peace talks to advance more smoothly than they actually have been. Bombing has just resumed. Iran has announced they're re-closing the straits and possibly the other straits in the Red Sea too.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
26d ago
Mortgage lending is important. But there's a distinction between lending for new builds to expand supply and foster development vs fuelling property bubbles and land speculation. It's not impossible to make houses cheaply - financial resources could be directed to replicate the postwar baby boom era of cheap housing and industrial development. That's how it happened in the first place, financial repression and capital controls. Credit was directed into creating new housing stock.
This doesn't happen naturally. It is often more profitable to buy houses in desirable areas since they're not making any more land. Elastic credit, inelastic supply - prices rise. It can be a lot 'safer' than lending to industry, from the perspective of the bank. If a business fails the money can be lost, whereas you can always repossess a house.
In 17 advanced economies, the share of mortgage loans in banks' total lending portfolios roughly doubled over the past century from 30% in 1900 to about 60% in 2014. More productive industrial investment has been crowded out.
Fable is much more of a 'do it right the first time' model than Opus. I had three pages of instructions for a feature. It just does what I ask, gets it all right, then tests it without me asking and tells me about the balancing! Opus could've done all that too if I cut up the instructions a bit but there'd be some minor glitches and I'd have to go over and fix it.
Better planner too. I was planning out a project with Opus 4.6 a few months ago, never really started it. Tried the same prompt with Fable and it come up with a few strokes of brilliance Opus never found. When making the initial demonstrator, Opus made a crap sandbox that needed a couple of rounds of debugging to even work and it wasn't very satisfactory. So I tried with Fable. Fable made a much nicer, prettier sandbox with more content that worked the first time and had all these things already set up to test. it puts in more care and effort as well as being smarter.
Better writer too. It is to Opus as Opus is to Sonnet.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1mo ago
How is Argentina capable of birthing civilization when they go begging the US or IMF for a bailout every 2-5 years?
Europe and America are immensely richer, more populous and stronger than Argentina. A Brazilified America is still going to be far more capable than Argentina just from its industrial/capital legacy and remaining clusters of strong demographics.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
18d ago
Well they have a good shot at 'divine right to rule', as good as any theocracy or real monarchy at least? Institutional legitimacy?
They seem to have won a series of rebellions and only got overthrown because of exceptional madness in their ranks.
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/First_Blackfyre_Rebellion
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
16d ago
The most popular movie this year is Project Hail Mary
It's Super Mario Galaxy: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/
Project Hail Mary doesn't have anything to do with Christianity thematically, it's a sci fi alien story.
Resident Evil Requiem doesn't seem to have anything to do with Christianity in the game. The word itself doesn't carry much weight.
The most anticipated game of 2026 is GTA 6, which is a pretty unchristian game thematically given it's all about shooting police, robbing people and girls in bikinis. GTA is a 5x bigger franchise than Halo too. The Combat Evolved remake isn't even a new game or a new remake (they already remade it in MCC)
The one part I agree with is that the Bible is needed to understand pre-1900 culture.
The cultural power of an iron age desert cult does not extend to a post-industrialized hyperurban internet economy. We are not shepherds, we don't give servants talents of gold to invest. We pick and choose various interpretations of biblical verses to suit our arguments at any given time, you of all people must be sick of the good samaritan being waved around as a leftist sigil. In that case, it's Christian arguments being made for fundamentally secular reasons, objectification of Christianity as a bludgeon, not actual sincere belief which would probably be smeared as fundamentalism. And it is kinda crazy to try to live by these rules in a thoroughly different society.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
16d ago
Yes, marriage is a very important ritual in Christianity and public life generally. Who can marry whom is one of the most fundamental pillars of society! You used to need an act of parliament to divorce. Henry VIII had no end of religious problems with marriage.
The state has basically reduced marriage to a tax strategy and a party.
Furthermore, it's not like everyone is abiding by all the rest of Christian dogma on usury, fasting, work on the sabbath, lust, abortion, licentiousness and only gay marriage slipped through the net.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
23d ago
Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days.
The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
That only means that the wolf and a few sheep will decide on tax rates for the farm. Sovereign rights of coastal states reads like code for 'Oman can hustle in on the racket too'.
Also negotiations have already broken down as you predicted with more Trump threats, fighting in Lebanon continuing, the Israelis openly ignoring this and the straits being formally reclosed. They were never really open in the first place, fighting in Lebanon never really stopped...
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
25d ago
When I go and look at a graph of US house prices vs median income, that's not exactly the conclusion that comes first to mind!
https://www.longtermtrends.com/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/
How about 'home price/median income is at its peak, higher even than the very top of the housing bubble' or 'the salary needed to buy a home doubled from 2017 to 2025'.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
29d ago
They won’t have nukes. They won’t have missiles or drones.
????
How does this happen? The US expended a huge amount of its munitions arsenal on Iran and achieved what?
Somewhere around 30% Tomahawk, >20% JASSM, ~20% SM-3/SM-6 - more like half of THAAD, PrSM.
They didn't stop Iran firing missiles and drones at whatever remains of US radar and bases in the region. They didn't open the straits of Hormuz forcefully. The straits are still closed. The oil is bottled up, Iran controls the straits. US says 'oh we blew up all these missiles' but that doesn't change the facts on the ground. Iran's missiles and drone forces are going to disappear from negotiations when they're the forces that won Iran the war? These aren't US missiles, they're not ridiculously expensive and can be quickly rebuilt. The drones are cheaper than cheap.
But Iran can’t really win what they want
They just did man. USA just took a big fat L. Because America lacks the power to accomplish all these ambitious military goals against forces specifically designed to counter their techniques. America tried to bomb Iran's missile forces into submission and failed. That is why the Gulf Arabs are apparently going to pay war reparations to Iran. It's not a sign of strength when the loot flows from US allies to Iran, it's a sign of weakness. It's a sign of weakness when the sanctions campaign designed to help pressure the regime into collapse is to be withdrawn, when Trump has to return all these Iranian assets.
So far as I can see, Iran is getting things they didn't have before the war, like sanctions relief and return of assets. The US is getting nothing new. Nuclear negotiations are being put off into the future.
Dressing it up like an anime trope is just cope, a loss is a loss. Trump hates Iran and he was forced by Iranian strength to agree to things he really didn't want to do. He railed and railed against Obama returning a small fraction of Iran's assets. He's worsened America's position at vast expense.
Iran will recover some and they’ll build some rockets, but it will leave a sour taste knowing we can destroy those whenever we want and they can’t do anything about it.
So why didn't you? USAF tried and failed. Iran kept launching rockets. Iran can do something about US bombing, they can win wars, they can close the straits and impose oil pressure on America and the rest of the world. We just saw that. This is what an Iranian victory looks like. Trump was militarily strapped down on Dr Goldfinger's laser-table, watching the beam approach his gentleman's area and so he squealed. He lived to tell the tale and may yet weasel away with limited losses but that is not a win!
Largely (though Mythos approaches white collar wages in terms of dollars per hour at API rates). But it's not like all tokens go straight to code written. Tokens are more like measuring thought.
When I give Mythos/Fable instructions it first goes 'I'll explore the codebase' and so it searches for relevant things (those search commands are output tokens). Then it reads files which have the relevant data, more input tokens. Then it thinks for a while (that's output tokens). Then it makes its to do list. Then it reads some more, thinks some more. There are pages and pages of just reading and thinking before it goes 'i have a full picture'. Then it starts editing code!
Then it'll try and test if it actually works, often writing some test cases, so that's more code. Then it tells me everything it did in summary and adds stuff to its memory files.
So a lot of thought is happening even if it only adds a few pieces here and there for a new feature.
OK but then Iran would retaliate by razing oil infrastructure across the Middle East. And so Trump would be considered a Bibi-tier war criminal and also ensure very high oil prices, probably a recession.
That's not a victory! Wars are fought to achieve political goals, not just to blow things up.
How would Americans feel if Russia or China attacked key electrical and water infrastructure? How would Americans feel if a great power launched a sneak attack across their whole country? Would they cuck out like pussies or hit back hard? Iran isn't a country of pussies. They didn't give up after taking considerable casualties against Saddam Hussein (not known for liberal war ethics), they kicked him out of Iran and tried to conquer Iraq, only to get bogged down after years of bloody fighting. That was when they were at their weakest and Saddam was supported by both superpowers, Iran was very determined and tolerant of suffering in that war.
They didn't give up when Saddam terror bombed them, they're not gonna give up to US terror bombing.
To beat Iran there would need to be a full scale multi-million man ground invasion or large-scale nuclear attack, which is just not on the cards.
The Australian outback is a terrible place to resettle anyone. It's far more expensive than the coastal cities because the logistics of doing anything there are terrible. Trucking food for thousands of kilometres, diesel generators, dodgy satellite internet... Everything has to be imported and the climate is horrid. Government employees need to get bonuses to work there. Doctors sometimes have to be flown around on light aeroplanes to reach patients! There are barely any jobs either, the whole area is a welfare sink besides the mineral-rich parts. And mining is mechanized, unskilled labour is not really needed.
The Australian government also struggles to provide security there, the outback is crime-ridden. Alice Springs is one of the most violent cities in the world. Mostly that's due to the indigenous population being quite violent but an infusion of exciting new ethnic conflicts and the criminal refuse of other nations wouldn't make anything better.
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