SerotoninsGone
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User ID: 1195
SerotoninsGone
4d ago
For reasons that never occurred to me to question until this moment, we refer ships carrying oil as "tankers" and ships carrying gas (lng) as "carriers". Oil has gotten the spotlight in the war but I think LNG has been equally as important. The US exports quite a bit of LNG but it's all on the east coast. Africa exports on its west coast. If you want LNG and you're east of Africa, without the strait Australia is about your only option.
But yeah, to your point, not aircraft carriers.
SerotoninsGone
4d ago
Another view is that given the conditions, this isn't really the Iran war, it's the Lebanon war and the Iran war is a sideshow and a distraction. The casualties are higher in Lebanon, there are troops on the ground in Lebanon, Israel is considering expanding its territory into Lebanon, occupation will inevitably result in settlements which will not be removed, etc. Perhaps the purpose of the Iran war never had anything to do with Iran herself, which is why the goals against Iran never seemed achievable, but were instead more local to protecting the Israeli homefront against Hezbollah. The USA distracts Iran and forces it to accept Hezbollah's defeat.
This seems one of the worst covered parts of a war that is generally poorly covered. Lebanon is currently in constitutional crisis. The government ordered the disarming of Hezbollah and the lebanese army refused to carry out the order. As a result Israel is invading to stop the rockets. It's not complicated, and I'm surprised that Hezbollah wasn't weak enough + the lebanese tired of being dragged into war with Israel to put Hezbollah down but here we are.
Israel is attempting to create agreements with the Sunni/Christians against the Shia but it's unclear if that will work. My guess is they kill a bunch of civilians, nonsense like plans to take territory (any evidence of this?) crops up and lots of horrible images and Lebanon rallies around the flag plus international pressure causes Israel to leave with nothing gained. Their best and perhaps only chance was to convince the lebanese military to take out Hezbollah on their own, and they were either too weak or too cowardly to do it. Supposedly the French are still attempting to negotiate a deal like this but I give it poor odds. Polymarket odds of Hezbollah disarming peaked at 59% at the beginning of the war and are now down to 30%.
SerotoninsGone
4d ago
Iran has not really closed the straits. Despite what’s been reported some vessels have never stopped making the crossing. Risks are higher and costs have adjusted but Iran has failed to actually project its will.
If I understand what you're implying that's not true. In the early days of the war several carriers risked it, and a few were hit for their trouble. Since Iran claimed to have closed the strait, only ships given permission by Iran have made the trip (since at least the last week). Iran has been fairly generous with its "permission" so that has resulted in some decent traffic -- but at least at the moment Iran has been projecting their will on the strait.
They've done the buffer zone thing at least twice before and never made a settlement. I don't think this time will be different -- no settlement but also no victory or much gained.
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