SlowBoy
1yr ago
Appeasement failed to contain the expanding ambitions of Nazi Germany. Right now, in Eastern Europe, it's NATO that has been expanding its borders while promising the Russians they would not. This metaphor can easily be read the other way!
SlowBoy
7mo ago
Who cares? This is up there with stealing a balloon on free balloon day. Sloppy? It doesn't matter how careful you are, they will make scandals up. See Kavanaugh
SlowBoy
1yr ago
It's incredibly suspicious, it's also impossible to know what it actually means without reading Sam Altman's mind. Think poorly of him, it's only fair, but I won't pretend that I know exactly what he meant.
SlowBoy
7mo ago
Maybe Harris got more votes in 2024 because Georgians were less excited about her.
SlowBoy
7mo ago
My mistake, I should have said dozens. I think I saw "hundreds" somewhere recently and internalized that for some reason.
Okay. Which vaccines in particular do you believe in?
The technology for smallpox vaccines could be totally sound, and the company that makes the shots puts too much mercury in them or something. A batch could be bad. Maybe the adjuvants are too strong. We have good heuristics for noticing when something causes noticeable immediate side effects, but not when something contributes to chronic stress. Maybe every shot contains one of the 32 arms of Exodia, and you need to catch them all to visit the shadow realm.
SlowBoy
8mo ago
Probably some of the tech visionaries, if Elon comes anywhere close to Mars then his companies, some of the most valuable anywhere in the world, would be currently dramatically undervalued. Trump wants to dramatically expand energy and construction and those are good bets. Tariffs are intended as a policy to increase American manufacturing, which could imply a genre of good investments. If RFK is able to effectuate change at FDA it'd be good to bet on the health of the average person, and maybe against the worst excesses of big pharma.
SlowBoy
8mo ago
The man got shot in the head and then stood up, faced the crowd, and pumped his fist changing "Fight!" He ran for President and destroyed any chance of a peaceful quiet retirement because he felt called. He didn't have to do any of this.
Instead of positing that a promise unfulfilled is some kind of cowardice (because Trump can never be imagined to possess any good qualities), why not just suppose Trump changed his mind? You can say he changed his mind for bad reasons, you can even suggest that you would have done a better job if you want.
SlowBoy
8mo ago
e my reply to @gattsuru), statistics which are in some sense 'constructed' are the only way of understanding any large scale and complex societal phenomena, whether it be crime, inflation or whatever el
I'm not suggesting that all statistics everywhere are bad. I'm saying that these statistics, collected by these people, in present America, are bad, and unreliable, as evidenced by the observation that anyone relying on them just a few weeks ago would have completely different conclusions as to etc. etc.
You want to have some sort of tough guy online moment where you call me a coward for not wasting my time parsing through obvious statistical bullshit of the highest order. Silly goose
SlowBoy
10mo ago
In 2016, at this time, Trump was supposedly -10.
In 2020, at this time, Trump was supposedly -10.
Now, polls have Trump around -2 to +2. He looks great in swing states. The indictments consolidated support, the assassination attempt consolidated support, and RFK's endorsement represents a new base of support. Trump looks better than he's ever looked, his favorables are better than they've ever been, 4 years of Biden makes Trump's presidency look even better in hindsight -- and somehow, all I hear on the Motte is how Trump is definitely, for sure, this time, we mean it, decisively, finally, no joke, losing.
SlowBoy
10mo ago
Detroit's decline is pretty exceptional and represents some deep forces. The amount of industry and wealth lost in Detroit was incredible.
SlowBoy
1yr ago
It's almost definitely a reference to the movie "her". What does that mean? Is this a reference to ScarJo specifically, or just the movie? Does the AI voice resemble the movie "her" in any way even without ScarJo's involvement? Is this an innocuous joke, or Altman thumbing his nose?
Without reading his mind, it's actually not obvious what exactly he meant.
SlowBoy
1yr ago
Why do you believe that "murdering people is wrong" eviscerates Christianity?
SlowBoy
1yr ago
The prior lawsuit did not reject anything. They concluded that Trump was liable in a civil case, a far lower threshold than proving he was guilty. Even then, many of the arguments I have just made were not admitted into court. And they still didn't find that Trump raped her -- that jury's compromise position was that he probably assaulted her by touching her vagina with his hands, but not with his penis. (Perhaps because her own story changed several times.)
As I said: Carroll has absolutely lied in ways that destroy her legitmacy. The idea that she is telling the truth is totally preposterous.
SlowBoy
1yr ago
The last time I looked into it, many years ago, Canadian real estate was a prime investment for Chinese elites looking to sock money away outside China. Perhaps the calculus haa changed, but it would take a lot of new housing stock to sate this demand.
SlowBoy
1yr ago
Of course I made it up, it was a hypothetical! Backhanded sarcasm troll concern "I'm sure you wouldn't just..." Don't be rude!
SlowBoy
1yr ago
It's only considered fraudulent after the fact, when it's failed. How can they have known themselves to be fraudulent when it had never been tried before, and, in fact, was supported by many as a legitimate alternative?
SlowBoy
8mo ago
It's a great interview as a long-form conversation. Rogan and Trump go down many interesting paths, and both talk uninterrupted at length at various times. If you're still living in soundbite culture, I think that reflects worse on you than the interview. People are going to be talking about this for years.
SlowBoy
9mo ago
Important to note that, then as now, electors formally cast their ballots at their respective state capitals. Without mass communication there was no reliable way to coordinate. If all federalists defect and vote for Jefferson and Burr, the tie gets broken in the House, where the Federalists could swing the election to Burr. If some Democrats honestly defect so Jefferson is ahead of Burr, there's the risk that poor coordination puts Adams ahead of Burr. And who's to say that, right now, there aren't Federalists defecting to Burr so he's ahead of Jefferson?
The College was so chaotic that it could have very quickly ended the Republic.
SlowBoy
10mo ago
I don't detect the energy that Trump's campaign had in 2016 in 2024.
Trump is polling higher than he ever has before. A month ago he was shot in the head and dodged a bullet. Then he got on his feet and started a fight chant.
The people saying they don't feel 2016 energy are all people who, in 2016, were certain that he was going to lose and could never possibly win. This time 2016 the Republican party was abandoning him in droves, "grab them by the pussy" was coming out and convinced everyone that this campaign was finished, and Hillary was giving interviews about how far ahead she was. This feels some some new meme fatalist consensus: but the same doomsayers were doomsaying then too.
People aren't satisfied with Trump? After 4 years of Biden Trump looks better than ever before. People remember peace and a stronger economy and groceries that didn't triple in price. He didn't drain the swamp? Gee, yeah, I wonder what happened.
This is what I'm talking about: the fatalism here is people who don't like Trump and never liked Trump rationalizing increasingly desperate forms of depression. What on earth does this have to do with the Enlightenment? The average poster here is pretty smart, but I doubt 1 in 10 could give a coherent definition of that period of time without consulting Google. Desire for truth? Maybe in principle, but I see bullshit repeated here all the time.
If yoh listen to dozens of podcasts but can't listen to Trump talking about the Lincoln bedroom... it sounds like you like slop. I guess that's your perogative.
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