SubstackNecron
4mo ago
If you were Canada & Mexico would you be spinning up a nuclear weapons program right now? I ask because I can't imagine a world where Poland,Turkey,Greace and Germany are not arming themselves with at least 200 warheads each over the next 10 years.
SubstackNecron
4mo ago
I agree with you 100% I don't think the lawfare angle is likely against someone as powerful and wealthy as Musk. I don't think it would pan out and if it did it would have years and could be undone. I think for a lot of reasons if the Dems come back into power in a big way the "plane crash" , "heart attack" and "car accident" angles are far more likely.
SubstackNecron
4mo ago
It all depends on how things shake out.The political situation in 2028 is so difficult to predict I do not even bother with the actual prediction just what I think will happen given one of the possible outcomes. I think in the worst case scenario for the conservatives/GOP (IE Trump really is the load bearing figure in the whole movement and it just implodes with him diminished and unable to run again) its very possible the courts are just packed and Texas can't do anything at all. I don't thinks that's likely as I don't think legal action is going to be what happens to Musk but I just don't know.
SubstackNecron
4mo ago
Elon is both not very good as assessing risk to his person and a very loud public figure. Assassinating him would not be very difficult if you had control of the government and a federal apparatus that supports his death.
SubstackNecron
4mo ago
Musk gets a page or two in the history books along with thousands of other people across countries and time periods who played the game of thrones, lost and died.
SubstackNecron
4mo ago
Or is the risk that he would get pardoned
Bingo! Yeah I think history is not really kind to people in the modern era that tried to exile people vs just killing them.
SubstackNecron
4mo ago
Musk is more likely to die in jail than in Mars.
I have said before and believe more so now that him going to jail is extremely unlikely. I think if the Dems rally and reorganize enough to take advantage of Trump being gone and actually win in 2028, then their new leadership would be smart enough to aim for the head with regards to Elon and not risk just imprisoning him.
SubstackNecron
4mo ago
maybe this will be the time that betting against Elon works out for the doubters
I wonder about this. Espically because this is a scenario where Elons fate is not even completely in his hands. What happens if DOGE goes as well as it could but it turns out that the GOP figure out in 2028 that MAGA really was just a Trump personality cult and the Dems sweep back into power anyway? Do you think he flees the country? I can't see a world where they don't imprison/Deposses him at least or just kill him.
SubstackNecron
5mo ago
This would give Trump a pretty compelling reason not to stab Elon in the back. The counter argument would be "Lol" said the Scorpion "LMAO"
SubstackNecron
5mo ago
Is there a single person more fucked in the world, as an individual, than Musk if the MAGA movement does just die with Trump?
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
The house of Bourbon coming back was a dead cat bounce. The aristocracy IE the feudal bloodline rule way of life was dealt a mortal wound when the French monarchy fell it just took a couple of decades to bleed out in the West.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
I'm not one to rebel against my superiors, that's more of a low human capital thing to do.
failed rebellions are this but successful ones are not. If the superiors are defeated in the only arena that really matters they were, evidently, not superior.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
For a proper deterrent we need to have a system where if anyone attempts to kill another human for a cause the whole cause gets set back decades
You see I think you make several assumptions here that are wrong, we live in a post-Luigi world. The left and even normal dems would not be tut-tutted by their media to feel bad at Elon being got and would react with unrivaled glee at his death, there would be many memes. This would leave the economic zone wing of the republican party with the realization that they have no real allies anymore and the general public with the realization that you don't actually have to sit around while the billionaires run circles around you and run the country you can just shoot them. Once people realize the emperor really isn't wearing any pants? I have no idea after that.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
Give it a few months and when his position is a lot more secure and the Trump admin is chugging along he'll come out and strike the final blow out of nowhere against the nativists.
Im curious what do you think the political fallout would be if he did this and got domed in the head at range?
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
So a lot of Elon’s move to the right is survival instinct and not necessarily agreement with policy.
This makes his recent move very baffling. If he alienates the MAGA base enough to piss off Trump he is going to be left in the wind with no real allies and a lot of enemies.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
a sitcom would probably be more boring than expected.
Alas, my image of you as a modern-day Don Quijote is tarnished.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
If/when a daughter gets married, at her wedding I’ll likely be thinking “thank goodness this is finally someone else’s problem.”
Sloot I'm not going to lie the thought of you having a daughter seems like the premise for a sitcom.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
Trump is unlikely to curb the h1b
Why do you say this? I think he is as likely as not to follow through with this, its at least as likely as him doing anything else he said he would do that isn't totally impossible.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
Events play ball by default. Most Americans default to blaming the party currently in power for anything that goes wrong regardless if that's valid. The Republicans will get 100% of the blame for any government shutdown that happens.
SubstackNecron
6mo ago
his 261 words
At least we know he's not a member of this forum
The hypothetical Democrats who come back and win the 2026 midterms and then run the table in 2028 against JD Vance
I mean there are two radically different timelines that result in a Dem win in those years. The Dems winning because they retolled and redid there messaging looks way different from the dems just winning because the worst-case scenario about the amount of damage Trump could do to the economy came true and they just win by default.
SubstackNecron
7mo ago
Yeah money is pretty useless if you are in that position unless you're getting the kind that spends in hell.
you better also account for the thousands or hundreds of thousands of people whose medical care was covered and lives were saved because the company paid for the necessary treatment or cure.'
You build a thousand bridges and no one calls you bridge builder but fuck one kid.......
Now now bud
Sir Isaac Newton
SubstackNecron
7mo ago
To play devil's advocate an argument could be made that shareholders are probably only important to a CEO or any major corporate leader if they don't believe their lives are in danger it is Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Any CEO they could hire would just choose to screw the shareholders to mitigate even a perceived 10 or 20 percent chance they would be killed. Once you're already a multimillionaire, it is extremely difficult to induce someone to risk there lives for more money.
I guess the end point of that is Poland,Itally, Japan and every other major (former) US ally that doesn't already have nukes telling the US to shove non-proliferation right up its ass and developing there own nuclear weapons stockpiles. They would probably even work together doing this.
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