Tanista
11hr ago
I'm neither American nor Canadian (though I have lived in the latter for a significant chunk of my life and my siblings were born and live in the US till now). Maybe that explains it.
But I think it's not so hard to satisfy Poles. France should give them security guarantees
American security guarantees =/= French security guarantees, especially since you admit that European hard power is, as it stands, underbuilt. That may change faster than I imagine but it isn't the case now and that colors things.
With Americans, that sort of problem is obviously lessened which is what made their guarantees so credible. You can't necessarily crib from their notes right now
Merz talks of Russia being a «European country».
I mean, he's German. Germans have not, within my lifetime, been the Russophobic country. They're the country Russophobic countries tell not to build pipelines to Russia.
If anything Russia's forays into Ukraine are just interrupting what was a seemingly mutually beneficial relationship.
They could reroute supply chains (rein in Ukrainians, accept Russian exports again, more EU-side JVs with China as Macron proposes)
Besides any fiscal issues, there's the problem of coordinating "Europeans" to do this. France may want to cool down the Ukraine thing and welcome Russia back but is it what Poland thinks is wise?
Trump's approval ratings are relatively low. Democrats' are apparently even lower.
I don't think it's just that Trump is good at politics, though he is. Democrats need to decide where to hold on and where to give ground policywise. And no one has the authority or charisma to do so right now (especially because I suspect part of the cope is "he's unpopular and will lose midterms and then be term-limited so I don't want to fuck anything up and stand out")
Not just because of Trump. Because their own party will rip them apart for picking wrong. Dean Phillips and Seth Moulton faced serious criticism for breaking early on certain matters. Ezra Klein was basically put in a struggle session with the anointed black prophet for daring to suggest Charlie Kirk wasn't the devil. Why is this even seen as a "black" thing? Because Kirk said some things about affirmative action? It seems to be the least interesting or dangerous thing about him. Imagine trying to take any position when dealing with this sort of thing.
I think when there's a nominee there will be someone with both an interest and ability to decide, to pick targets.
Even more punitive and damaging tariffs, fucking around with the upcoming USMCA negotiations, fucking with Canadians crossing the border, kicking out of Five Eyes, maybe sanctions for Canadian officials as individuals. Hell, even attempted retaliations would hurt Canada: pipelines to Eastern Canada pass through the US too .
All of those would rapidly result in the whole world looking for a better deal with a new protector.
I think it's one thing for France to try to be independent. Canada will find it hard to find anyone that could protect it from the US. Especially when there are existing issues with Chinese influence and espionage (not that China did Venezuela much good). It's a bit of a rock and hard place.
Tanista
15hr ago
I think there's a transition from the old guard that means a huge lack of leadership. There's no presidential nominee to act as party head and people like Pelosi who were, if nothing else, competent are gone.
Seriously, who is the boogeyman for right wingers right now?
Not to mention the diversity and multicultural shit has always been product of US intellectuals first and foremost.
That makes it less mysterious? MAGA loathes those sorts of people.
It's an extension of the culture war, Europe is focused on because they function as a proxy for America (well, the white Americans) and is seen to be suffering from being ruled by the same sorts of people MAGA considers its foremost enemies in the US.
Tanista
15hr ago
The engagement with China is a common theme, spearheaded by Carney. His partnership with China in particular is prompting Americans to fantasize of seizing Alberta. Maybe that'll happen too.
If the American-led, rules-based liberal international order is collapsing, why would Canada be allowed to sidle up to China? The assumption that that is something it can do is the ALRBLIO.
Yeah, at least we're gonna see how much a change of orientation from the PM alone matters. Or what he can or is willing to do if it doesn't.
It's clearly a policy choice to take continually expanding First Nations' claims (one of the blockers for infrastructure in Canada) seriously. Granted, it's not purely a legislative decision - the judiciary has its role here. But nobody forced Trudeau to enshrine these rights even further by rolling the UNs view of native rights into law and making it a part of his administration (even after he left Canada was paying off claims)
Environmentalists help it along by cynically claiming FN have an absolute right of veto, which conveniently suits their interests.
Tanista
4d ago
The only real solution here is to abolish the welfare state, a largesse the continent can no longer afford, and redirect the money into long term capital investments.
You would have to abolish democracy first. They will never do this of their own free will.
The king is dead, long live the king.
But does anybody care anymore?
If you were turned off by The Force Awakens (which, contrary to what Kennedy says, was disliked for being too much like the OT), it's been a decade. If Last Jedi killed your fandom it's been 8 years. I don't know how you can sustain constant hope and disappointment with an IP this long. I tapped out mentally in-theatre with TLJ. Every time I wanted to jump back in because they seem to have figured it out (e.g. when the reviews for Mandalorian were good) they quickly reverted to form.
Whoever is still with it is the new audience and they've made their peace with Kennedy or like her content. The mega-haters who were praying on Kennedy's downfall have to have tapped out. I skimmed the channels of some of the usual suspects and the comments are basically fatalist. In part because they seem to hate Filoni too for some reason, but also because the game of wishing her gone has gone on too long to be amusing.
But does it mean Star Wars is dead in the water? Probably not, Andor season 2 debuted with record viewership numbers.
Look at what you just said: Star Wars ushered in the blockbuster era! Even the Prequels maintained a $650 million floor. And we're all coping that one TV show out of all the material produced did well on TV.
We really need to stop talking about education like we're just educating ancient nobles' children.
We treat knowledge as goal not as a tool. Tell the little ones that at the end of the course they will know how to make total synthesis of cocaine and you will have the most attentive chemistry class in the history of the world. And they will do their homework without even being assigned.
This sounds like a hack Michelle Pfeiffer would try to educate inner city children.
What would actually happen is that the kids would think you're cool but the minute they had to apply any of the things you said in a more boring, sterile environment (and of course they must) a bunch would get tired and move on to something significantly more stimulating. I don't know what schools you went to but plenty of kids are fucking lazy and need the tripwire of mandatory homework. Plenty of kids would be hooked on every word in one class and then not care about another.
You may have been particularly intelligent and conscientious, most aren't. Unless we're talking purely about schools that cut those people out, kids need to be forced to push through their boredom because work will be boring.
Tanista
6d ago
Her run-ins with the law and rampant rebelliousness in high school appear to have been a phase. The damage that phase did to her life prospects (like missing out on college) seems to be more permanent.
We weren't really rich (more middle class) and being black they probably blended in better, but apparently my sister's friends got a bit weird when they realized she was slumming it. Which...I kinda get. We found it frustrating too.
There's obviously no way to figure this out, but I truly wonder what race relations would be like if all racial agitating was treated like the N-word and limited to American descendants of slaves (and Injuns and railway workers)
It has to be infuriating to hear this shit from not just from ethnic groups that are richer than the white median, but from people like Ilhan Omar who ran cause they fucked up their countries.
Stephen Harper and his immigration system are weeping.
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