Tarnstellung
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This was basically what Obama was doing. He deported new arrivals and criminals en masse (more people were deported during each of Obama's terms than during Trump's first term), while letting established non-criminals stay. The left nicknamed him the "deporter-in-chief". If the policy had been continued, the number of illegal immigrants in the US would have slowly fallen as the existing ones died off.
Why did Biden change course and become more permissive? A charitable interpretation might connect it to the fact that Obama received no credit from the right for this policy and Trump campaigned heavily on the problem of illegal immigration during his 2015–2016 run and won.
I make no difference between my children: There are those who were conceived naturally and those who come from my sperm donations. They are all my children and will all have the same rights
Except the right to a present father.
There was one mullah that asked for copies of his kompromat for 'personal use'.
Sukarno? Not much of a mullah.
One theory I've heard is that "incest" is the only "normal" porn remaining, without other highly specific fetishes, so people looking for something "normal" search for "incest". No idea how true this is because I don't watch that kind of porn.
There was no deal of the kind I'm describing with the Reagan amnesty. At the time, the Republicans were pro-immigration because they thought it was good for business and the Democrats were anti-immigration because they thought it was bad for US workers.
I agree that the non-enforcement of the law on both immigration and cannabis is an affront to the rule of law and is thus highly objectionable. But the fair thing to do, regarding immigration, would be, as I said (and as Obama was doing; see my edit above), to start enforcing the law for new arrivals and criminals while granting amnesty to the people who had built their lives around the assumption that it won't be enforced. And as for cannabis, the solution is to legalize it.
I give you: everything you want on the issue
You give me: you promise to follow the law, which you have already promised to do, and which already gives me everything I want on the issue
Wow great, what a deal, sign me up
When did the US left promise to enforce immigration law?
Oh look, one paragraph later the I am being told that you are just going to ignore the law if you think its unfair.
The law isn't unfair; what is unfair is suddenly starting to enforce the law after it's been unenforced for decades and people have built their lives around the expectation that it won't be enforced. Enforcing it for new arrivals is entirely fair.
I'm not even particularly opposed to reasonable levels of immigration and I think that sounds dumb. What could you feasibly offer in return? Mandatory nationwide E-Verify? Residency checks for all hotel and apartment rentals (this is common in other Western nations)? Also bank accounts and transfers?
All of that, plus actually deporting people when they're found to have entered illegally or overstayed their visa, with no applying for asylum or other legal bullshit.
As I said, probably impossible.
I contend that you can get much more explicit and unambiguous than that.
Right, the Argentinians are a different kind of White people. Mostly Italians and Spaniards. Yet neither Italy nor Spain is anywhere near as dysfunctional as Argentina, and Italian-Americans are well assimilated. As far as I know, New Jersey hasn't been governed by Peronists for the last 80 years.
Argentina used to be much richer relative to the rest of the West. (There was a Reddit post on this topic on a SSC/Motte-type subreddit that I'm unable to find right now.) They literally just came up with one terrible idea, Peronism, and ran with it, destroying their country in the process. But as other places populated by Italians and Spaniards show, this was a historical accident, not the inevitable outcome.
Because the left broke the deal so flagrantly last time
There was no deal of the kind I'm describing with the Reagan amnesty. At the time, the Republicans were pro-immigration because they thought it was good for business and the Democrats were anti-immigration because they thought it was bad for US workers.
And to be clear, I'm only talking about illegal immigration. Legal immigration is an entirely separate question.
Singapore seems pretty harmonious. Everyone being well-off tends to reduce animosity. You only start seeking scapegoats when you have something to scapegoat them for.
I don't see how this responds to the fact that Argentina is Whiter than the US.
That would be the bargain: the pro-immigrant side actually agrees to actually enforce the law. This would be a major concession from their side, which is why they would get a total amnesty in return.
I will concede that this does require a degree of good faith that probably doesn't exist in American politics in the current year. Maybe they could enshrine it in the constitution, in a very clear and unambiguous manner to avoid interference from the courts.
Are you asking about how to parse the sentence? Because I also spent a while puzzling over it.
Reworded: The only thing it does is upset US citizens who are disliked by zoomers whom Trump hired to be mean on twitter. The zoomers dislike the US citizens because they (the US citizens) fail "a paper bag test" (presumably the brown paper bag test).
I don't think HBD is keeping Latin America back. Argentina is Whiter than the US, yet is still a shithole due entirely to cultural and political reasons. Meanwhile, El Salvador is now the safest country in the Americas, with a homicide rate well below that of the United States, following a radical shift in policy. It's still poor – that can't change overnight – but having the country run by gangs was a major impediment to growth that has now been removed.
I think what the US needs is a grand bargain between the two sides on immigration: one big amnesty for those already there, obviously excluding criminals, etc., and to then start actually enforcing the law.
I do feel it is unfair that people who've lived in the US for years or decades under the understanding that the law will not be enforced have had the rug pulled out from under them. No, you can't just say "but it's the law!". Imagine a teenager smokes some weed on the understanding that the prohibition is not enforced, and then a tough-on-crime district attorney starts enforcing it and suddenly he's spending a year in jail (the maximum sentence) and will never be able to get a good job. People act differently based on how and whether laws are enforced, and suddenly changing that retroactively is unfair.
Edit: By the way, this was basically what Obama was doing. He deported new arrivals and criminals en masse (more people were deported during each of Obama's terms that during Trump's first term), while letting established non-criminals stay. The left nicknamed him the "deporter-in-chief". If the policy had been continued, the number of illegal immigrants in the US would have slowly fallen as the existing ones died off. My proposal was just to give them amnesty instead of keeping them in legal limbo. Obama received no credit from the right for this policy and Trump campaigned heavily on the problem of illegal immigration.
I've long been sceptical of the Drake equation, with some of the estimates being plucked from thin air (or a ruder place), but I also thought my objections were fairly obvious, and indeed, if you go to Wikipedia, there's a preprint from 2018 that argues the same thing.
Wait, what? The preprint from 2018 is the "new paper" you're citing. It literally says "June 8, 2018" in big letters at the top of the paper you linked. It was even published in a legit journal later in 2018.
But when I switch to mobile the whole game changes
You can get RiF working if you have an Android phone.
By analogy, bans on gender affirming care would be a good example. You can also split them by who they apply to, like bans on GAC for children (I think that's the majority of the passed laws) are more moderate than blanket bans.
How would such a ban be enforced if not by criminal sanctions, i.e., imprisonment or execution? Okay, I suppose you could fine people, but I can't imagine that being a very effective deterrent, and an anti-trans government would certainly want something more forceful. To compare our hypothetical to a real-life instance of medical procedures being criminalized, performing an abortion can get you life imprisonment in Texas. Evidently they thought fines were insufficient. You could perhaps nitpick over whether the trans person would be prosecuted or only the person performing the procedure.
Or even with the pronouns example we started from: creating social pressure for everyone to use pronouns based off biological sex, rather than just letting people use whatever they want (some TERFs actually do this) is less moderate than JK Rowling's position.
I will concede that there is a difference between refusing to personally use trans people's preferred pronouns and creating social pressure for others to refuse. Furthermore, mere social pressure is not necessarily equivalent to a legal ban (which again would run into the question of enforcement), so that would be another step to the right, though some more traditional societies can be very forceful about extralegal enforcement of social norms.
But do we know if Rowling is actually indifferent regarding other people's pronoun usage? A person as prominent as her publicly and vocally refusing to use preferred pronouns is bound to have an effect on the discourse. I suspect she would be happy if her advocacy resulted in more people refusing to use trans people's preferred pronouns. Is that not a kind of "social pressure"?
Yes, they do sometimes force gay men to transition to make them "straight", but all that means is that they're only progressive on trans issues, not LGB issues. In Iran, these are considered separate, not interrelated as they are in the West.
so that when one of their gay Imams is inevitably caught, they have a religious rules-lawyered way to claim he was actually just having sex with a woman.
Are you claiming that was the original motivation to allow transition? It's at most an unintended benefit (for the regime).
So, everyone? Maybe excluding a few isolated tribes in the Amazon and the North Sentinelese?
There's a law being debated in the UK right now that would penalize parents and therapists for questioning children's transitions. The overwhelming majority of he trans memeplex is much more extreme than anything Rowling has advocated.
I'm sorry, but to me this seems like a non sequitur. I'm not talking about the left end of the spectrum. I'm asking, on the centre-to-right side of the spectrum, what position is there between that held by Rowling and advocating imprisonment or execution for being trans (which you will surely agree is the very far-right end of the spectrum)?
Because it allows them to live their life however they wish as long as they don't impose their beliefs on others.
Sharing a public toilet does not entail the imposition of philosophical or any other beliefs. Communists, liberals and fascists; monarchists and republicans; Christians, Muslims, Hindus and atheists share toilets every day with no difficulty.
Compelling the use of preferred pronouns
You could object to cancellation, etc., on free speech grounds, etc., but the personal decision to use or not use people's preferred pronouns has nothing to do with "compelling".
I repeat: What would be a less "moderate" stance that still comes short of advocating trans people's extermination? Advocating their imprisonment instead, I guess?
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That's a result of policy, and a policy that was fairly simple to change at that. I don't think a few more years of education would have broken either of the banks if the will had been there.
Likewise, regarding literacy, Southern Europeans are not much harder to teach how to read than Germanic peoples. After the Cuban revolution, the new government launched a literacy campaign that reduced the illiteracy rate from 23.6% to 3.9% in a year. If communists, not generally very good at achieving their objective of improving society, can do this, anyone can. All that is needed is for the government to care about it. Evidently Argentina's didn't.
What prevents the US from having coups all the time? Its military is the world's strongest; it could certainly pull it off. But there's a widespread belief – an idea – that constitutional government is good and coups are bad.
Attributing Argentina's woes to just Peronism is a bit reductive, but Peronist economics is braindead, which is a major factor, and Peron's personal authoritarian streak and the fact that he was the product of a coup certainly didn't help.
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