TeknOShEeP
3d ago
Is there coherent opposition? You have Silwa, who is very explicitly using this as an excuse to route campaign financing bucks to his friends and family (so technically coherent I guess?) but is putting in the same amount of effort as his chance of winning. Then you have Cuomo who manages to be toxic on both sides of the aisle and is obviously grabbing at any chance at ressurecting his career. Cuomo has some organized money behind him, but it doesnt seem to be the usual influence-dealing you would expect with a standard campaign, just knee-jerk desperation gambles from wealthy boomers not already planning on fleeing the city.
Prediction markets have this as a foregone conclusion, with Mamdani approaching 95% victory chance. I would believe them.
TeknOShEeP
4d ago
That's because the actual strategic play on the right is not to oppose Mamdani, its to amplify him. If deep blue NYC wants to vote in a champagne socialist who larps at third-world credentialism, more power to them. They'll just be over in the corner eating popcorn and taking notes.
As a result, the anti-Mamdani coalition is a slapdash contraption hobbled together by people who mostly despise each other and are united only in their disbelief that NYC voters could possibly be this dumb, financed by a couple of boomer billionaires who are not particularly relevant. Thus the reason you dont see any coherent opposition is because it doesnt exist. Mamdani will be the next mayor of NYC, and his supporters will get what they voted for, good and hard.
TeknOShEeP
17d ago
According to news sources, the plant manufacturered TNT, among other things.
TNT has several relevant attributes here: compared to most high explosives, it is considerably cheaper, which means it can be produced in comparatively large quantities. Compared to most high explosives, it is also very unstable and dangerous (C4 famously can be burned without detonation, other military-grade HEXs are similar). TNT is also very dirty to manufacture, and has been mostly been banned from production in the US, with defense concerns only recently restarting production (AES appears to be one of those concerns). As a result, there is limited current experience in the US with best practices for safety measures.
While I am not a certified demolitions and ordnance engineer, I've dealt with them in the past, and this whole thing reeks of: "small industrial producer trying to make many metric shit-tons of TNT without grizzled old guys missing fingers to pass on the important lessons, goes about how you expect." Like the amount of safety precautions we had to take for explosives in the double-digit grams was both immense and sadly very necessary (an improperly sodered inflator squib blew up in an inspectors face killing him, shit is hazardous).
So I guess my point here is this seems like the logic of hoofbeats and zebras- malicious intervention from a foreign power is a possibility, certainly, but it seems vastly more probable this was an industrial accident.
TeknOShEeP
21d ago
Ah, TIL.
TeknOShEeP
22d ago
only that AFAIK the speech norms are often pretty different
Yes, 4chan is for my literal shitposting (on my employer's time of course), the motte is for when I am waiting on civilized company. One can have different voices tailored to different environments.
TeknOShEeP
22d ago
These people are laboring under the misapprehension that their voice is so desired other people will follow them to wherever. In reality, no one cares, and it makes no sense.
TeknOShEeP
22d ago
Lol, they can of course return to twatter. Twatter (as they loudly decry at every opportunity) has virtually no standards or "safety", it basically follows the bare minimum of US law (so no CP or active calls to violence) with a few extra advertiser-friendly bits thrown in (you need to click on "sensitive" videos instead of autplaying, porn is mostly banned except for the softcore "sub to my OF" type stuff). There's literally a million people talking shit about Elon and Trump all day every day, the only difference is these comments are not being artificially boosted and have no official seal of approval, so they have to stand on their own merits (which they seldom do).
I am greatly enjoying watching BlueSky descend into a ratfuck, because it reveals the true nature of the people who populate it.
TeknOShEeP
23d ago
Yes, but that is all far, far downstream of the media industrial complex's and the DNC's (but I repeat myself) decision to push the idea that immigration law doesnt matter and anyone who enforces it is a evil nazi. What options does ICE have? Attempt to arrest between 10-30 million illegals, give them multiple hearings, provide all legal care and shelter during said hearing period, while being fought tooth and claw by approximately half of the population? Lol, not a fucking chance.
ICE is doing the only thing it can do- demonstrate in a highly visible way that they will enforce the law, and the days of free-riding are over, might as well self-deport doe the thousand bucks and free plane ticket. If this offends the left, well, fuck it, they broke the system first.
TeknOShEeP
23d ago
Its not just not a bad idea, its the only idea that will work. Self-deportations greatly outnumber ICE deportations, and have to do so for anything meaningful to be accomplished.
The legal system in America is simply unable to deal with millions of deportation hearings, you have to set examples pour encourager les autres.
TeknOShEeP
23d ago
Okay, and I'm saying its only "fuck the left" because the left has abandoned any pretense of rule of law and embraced Anarcho-Tyranny. The left could end the controversy tomorrow, if they just said "actually yes, lets enforce immigration law and stop selectively chosing which criminals are good and which are bad. Then we can work on comprehensive reform."
"Fuck ICE fascists!" Is not the own the left thinks its is.
TeknOShEeP
23d ago
"Gotta catch 'em [illegal immigrants] all" has long been a mantra of Trump and his his supporters.
You think its retarded because the media bias in this country has led you to believe Anarcho-Tyranny is an acceptable form of government. That montage was a cute little poke at the fact that its not, and times are a' changin.
TeknOShEeP
23d ago
Lol, Lmao even. Why do you think ICE gets to pick their own optics? Like any federal agency, they get to wear whatever label the media slaps on them today. And the leftoid media industrial complex has decided "nazi storm troopers" is the label ICE gets to wear for the foreseeable future.
Compared to most feds, ICE seems to be undertaking an extremely difficult task, that puts them in quite a lot of personal danger, in a reasonably professional manner. That puts them in the top 5% of efficient agencies as far as I'm concerned. Lefty shitflinging will happen completely independently of how ICE is actually performing, because it mostly works at convincing the average lefty voter their country is turning into the Fourth Reich.
TeknOShEeP
25d ago
"erosion of norms" is just DNC speak for "refusing to play the loveable loser to our obviously more virtuous candidate."
I freely admit I was part of it in my stupid college days, but frankly the DNC has been demonizing conservatives for a lot longer than Trump has been relevant, he was just the first one to fling the shit back in any effective manner.
If you want to point to a specific moment the norms really started to collapse, I would suggest the Johnson administration for the most recent cycle.
TeknOShEeP
27d ago
Right, thats where having the original ruling would be very helpful. But going by:
Green raises the following issues for our review:
- Did the trial court err in overruling the defense’s objection to [Taylor’s] lay opinion about whether [] Green held a genuine firearm in his hand where that opinion was based on improper speculation?
- Was the evidence insufficient for a conviction under [section] 6105 where the object described by the complaining witness could not have been a genuine firearm?
- Should the [section] 6105 charge have been graded as a misdemeanor of the first degree where there was no evidence at trial that [] Green had been convicted of a disqualifying felony?
- Was the evidence insufficient for a conviction for recklessly endangering another person where all evidence showed that [] Green’s purported gun was not loaded?
I read as an established fact by the criminal trial that the defendant pointed something at the witnesses, and now we are just arguing about the technicalities of what it was.
TeknOShEeP
28d ago
Reading through the first case, while it is only the appealate court's decision rather than the actual criminal case, it seems to be far less alarming then first glance would have you believe. Unless I am missing something, the defendent seems to have admitted to brandishing a "black semiautomatic (as opposed to a revolver) handgun", and pointing it at the two women (his cousins). This is, broadly speaking, rather antisocial behavior, especially from a felon who is a prohibited person, and frankly seems like grounds for restricting their liberty for a substantial duration. The appeal does not appear to dispute these basic facts, and relies on technicalities such as "the witnesses could not have known it was a real gun" and "a real gun wouldn't click twice [ignoring the obvious issues that a real DA hammer fired gun would in fact click with each trigger pull]".
TeknOShEeP
30d ago
I think that would be a fair assessment. There is certainly a wide gap between being a fairly local politician and trying to run a campaign on a bigger stage, and then actually delivering once you've won the race. In many ways, the skills don't translate, and cabinet secretaries are one of the posts where it can be most obvious (not guaranteed though- regardless of how you feel about the moral and philosophical implications of her actions, it's hard to deny the Clinton got shit done as Sec State, Cruz seems to be doing similarly).
TeknOShEeP
30d ago
Engage maximum cynacism mode! No nukes are needed. In fact, nukes are overrated. Two squadrons of B-52s can drop the equivalent of a Hiroshima bomb via conventional ordnance, except those can all be individually targeted down to an arbitrarily precise degree as smart bombs, and so are actually far more devastating. 80% of Iraq's oil is clustered in the southeast, you just blow any civilization near them off of the map, occupy the oil fields, and declare a 200km buffer zone between your occupation area on top of the oil fields and the rest of Iraq. Anything or anyone that enters the buffer zone will be destroyed without warning.
Literal robbery? Absolutely. But perhaps more humane in the long run that the almost quarter-century clusterfuck we have now.
TeknOShEeP
30d ago
There are rules of engagement that are to ensure a country does not win the tactical battle and thereby lose the propaganda war (see Vietnam, and being currently attempted by Israel in Gaza).
And then there are rules of engagement that are simply ass-covering for the REMFs who ordered the operation to begin with (see Afghanistan, Iraq).
And finally, there are rules of engagement for powers who follow Machiavelli's advice to kings (see all sides of WWII, the Mongols under Ghenghis and Kublai Khan, and Rome at its peak).
War is a terrible thing. The modern ideal is that it is to be "civilized" by more humanitarian rules of engagement, but I'm not sure this is true. What I am sure is true is that the current blend of caregory 1 and 2 RoEs used by the US manages to be about the worst of all possible worlds.
TeknOShEeP
1mo ago
Maybe, but he burned a lot of bridges with people who would make very good attack ads. Like 40 year career, apolitical professionals ended up hating his guts and can make a very good case for why he made Americans less safe, and would happily do so on national media outlets. Perhaps I'm underestimating the capabilities of the DNC propaganda arm, but especially with his, erm, demographic disadvantages with certain key voter segments, I dont think he would stand a chance.
Well, without doxing myself too much, its mostly aerospace related matters, specifically involving certification of new aircraft, new rules for airports and air traffic controllers, and how the US would harmonize its regulations with other national and supranational regulators (like EASA... okay mostly EASA). The list of sins is long- it was never clear who was actually making a formal decision (lots of 'here's what i think, but xyz all need input'), despite a formal decision being requested. Some paperwork remained outstanding for 4 years. Certain statutory limits on how long the government has to respond to requests and filings were routinely ignored without apology or explanation, to the point we seriously considered suing the FAA and DoT. It also became obvious that several key administrators were completely AWOL and had delegated their entire function to assistants, and when this was brought up directly to him, we got an out of office (I believe it was his paternity leave stint, which is charming, but as a cabinet secretary the buck stops with you, respectfully you dont get to take months of paternity leave), our concerns about serious government malfeasance were never addressed in even a perfunctory manner.
My experience with the previous two secretaries of transportation, as well as the current one, are nothing at all like that. Night and day difference, and I know there are many other people in similar positions who have similar feelings.
I never met with him personally, but the issues i was involved with were the kind of things that would require his approval, or st least input, and that really never happened. In contrast, i have emailed Secretary Chao before and recieved a personal response about three hours later. Secretary Duffy appears to be much the same.
TeknOShEeP
1mo ago
So I shared many of your feelings about Buttigeig, and felt that he would have done well at the top of the Democrat ticket, and then I had to deal with his office and him professionally as the secretary of transportation, and now I have to disagree in the strongest possible terms. While he has charm and charisma, as a professional executive head of a functional body, dude is fucking incompetent. In my experience he was totally unable to make an independent decision without 17 layers of ass-covering consultation, totally unable to tell when brown-nosing subordinates might be completely full of shit, and worst from a political perspective, totally unaware of when optics might demand his presence or at least general visibilty, such as when a major transportation disaster has occured, and the Secretary of Transportation might plausibly be expected to have input.
If the DNC wants to lose badly in 2028, I can think of few better ways that having Buttigeig be the nominee.
TeknOShEeP
1mo ago
If Trump dies, I do not think there is any obvious candidate to inherit the MAGA kingdom.
Is it not Vance? It seems to me that he is being groomed for the top slot in a way most VPs never are. Also, AFAIK he's in pretty good with the MAGA base.
TeknOShEeP
1mo ago
To the extent that genetics (and epigenetic phenomena) express themselves in our behavior, yes.
This is not a condemnation of any individual person, but blank-slateism has been rather conclusively debunked. We are all, to a certain extent, products of our genetics.
TeknOShEeP
1mo ago
Thanks for the review, it reminded me of why i got about 200 pages in and never bothered to finish it. Definitely drove home why having a good editor is important.
Lol, very true! It's pretty much the same reaction.
Though the subjects are not the same, and that difference is everything.
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