VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
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User ID: 64
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
In some ways it's even more complicated than that: I learned relatively recently that the Black Hills famous for the Little Bighorn and Wounded Knee incidents weren't traditionally Lakota land, and had, at the time, been recently taken by the Lakota from the Cheyenne in 1776.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
IMO the Reconquista (1492) also fits in quite interestingly here.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
that decided to target a politician instead.
Unironically, even though this incident was bungled pretty badly, national politicians are much harder targets than elementary schools, and I'd much prefer suicide-by-countersniper to a bunch of dead kids. This does assume that those counter snipers are willing and actually manage to shoot first, though. And maybe that's asking too much.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
I don't think you're completely wrong, especially in the mind of the average voter.
sneers at the "Southern Strategy" and the great flipping of the Solid South as if it were some kind of myth.
To the extent that "Southern Strategy" is frequently hung on Richard Nixon in the '72, election, I think it's relevant that he carried every state except Massachusetts and DC: it's not like he needed the South to win the election. Which is doubly ironic to me given the entire Watergate fiasco.
If it were not true that most of the people who voted Democrat before Reagan vote Republican now, then where did all those Democratic voters go and where did all the Republican voters come from?
If nothing else, I think any voters in '84 (the last opportunity to vote for Reagan) are at least very close to retirement now. The average Reagan voter is almost certainly dead.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
I'm definitely not an expert on this, but I follow some folks that are, and I think Iran seems to have decided that being imminently nuclear-capable maximizes its negotiating position. It likely prevents (or at least makes unreasonably costly) an American invasion to force regime change, and doesn't have the international reputation costs of actually being a nuclear state. And it's not like smuggling warheads to Hamas or Hezbollah would be a winning strategy anyway: breaking the near-octogenarian nuclear force taboo even to destroy Tel Aviv probably galvanizes the rest of the world against their religious causes for decades, and probably wouldn't tactically accomplish much. And that's assuming that it wasn't intercepted: evidence of a nuclear plot would probably push even the Biden administration to retaliate heavily on Iran.
Quite a while ago, Google got in a bit of hot water for its auto complete suggestions. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a nontrivial human filter blocking all sorts of things. Many of those are probably not very political -- don't recommend adult topics at all, especially not around kids content; don't recommend anything suggesting committing a crime; don't recommend "torrent" searching for movie titles. Don't recommend anything that makes the company or it's search product look bad, generally.
I'm not convinced it isn't an intentional hand on the scales, but I think a higher burden of proof is probably necessary to declare it deliberate political bias, rather than the bias of their employees working on more general filters. Which also isn't to say it's unreasonable to ask them to improve the balance of the moderation there either.
ETA: I'm thinking of things like this list, which dates from 2010.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
Supporters of legal abortion are very clear that they think it is a woman's natural right to choose whether or not to have a child inside her, and that this right means women should be able to get an abortion.
In broad strokes, yes. But they aren't all as lockstep as you seem to be implying: Dobbs was handed down when the Blue Team held control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency, and even heard some Republicans offer to cross the aisle, yet no bill to codify these rights could be passed. Some point to cynicism trying to make an issue out of it for the election (possibly true in part), but there is also a lot of disagreement of what the terms to be codified would be: which trimesters, which exceptions, and so forth. Previous precedent didn't require elected representatives to take stances on these. Late term abortions are, IIRC pretty uncommon and very unpopular, but also sometimes medically indicated. And I say that as someone who generally accepts "safe, legal, and rare:" every abortion is tragic, but sometimes it's the least bad choice.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
why Israel is obligated to continue giving free food water and electricity to a population that enthusiastically showed their desire to rape and murder civilians
This is one thing that gives me pause when people advocate for UBI: I'm sure it could be done better, but our examples in the world of populations that are entirely supported by unconditioned aid seem to, by most objective metrics, fare really poorly (see also Haiti). At some point, it seems like having at least a bit of skin in the game incentivizes thinking on something other than how to destroy the hand that feeds. There is probably an interesting dystopian novel to be written there, somewhere.
Not that the existing systems are otherwise perfect, either.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
I found myself asking if he used that card to cater those well-publicized meals at the White House.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
In the USA-vs-Russia proxy war that's happening right now the west is being dramatically outcompeted in terms of ammunition supply/manufacturing, and on top of that there's a technological gap between the US and Russia - the US still hasn't bridged the hypersonic weapons gap.
The West isn't falling completely behind there: the Army opened a new artillery shell plant in May, and within the last month the US announced operational deployment of long-range air-launched SM-6 missiles and Lockheed announced a hypersonic missile (I haven't seen any claims of deployments, though).
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
There's also a point that almost every single youtube inter-video add for the last few days feels to have been a Kamala fundraiser ad
If this is the same one I've been getting, my first observation was that the audio was terrible: echoes, ambient noise, and such. This was memorable because even low-budget YouTube channels have, I guess, been able to get good-enough microphones, acoustic panels, and turn off the air conditioner (things I've seen brought up in passing) to manage better than a multi-million dollar campaign that I'd think would be doing professional-quality media constantly.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
Which regulators and which regulations?
I'm pretty sure this is generally pointing at NIST guidance, compliance with which has been leveled as a requirement on Federal contractors, and probably has shown up in the private sector cited as best practice for things like insurers looking at IT risks. There have also been increasingly loud recommendations from the government about software development practices generally, but I'm not sure exactly how those are enforced.
Honestly most of the relevant regulations I've worked with aren't dumb. Sometimes painful to implement, and maybe sometimes overbearing, but not completely unreasonable.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
As far as I can tell, it's really just organized groups within these hobbies that have the political slant. I'm sure you could say something about long hikes marches through institutions, but I don't think it's necessarily swung the hobby as a whole. To point to your video game example, the game development studios, journalism, and awards groups are quite leftist, but the median gamer generally doesn't care while playing the latest Assassins of Duty.
I don't play in public servers much, but has random voice chat improved that much from being full of slurs a decade ago? I think that's true of hiking too: the median participant is just hitting the trails, not reading about how the backcountry isn't diverse enough, regardless of their feelings on the matter. The median quilt group is a bunch of old church ladies, even if the media coverage is woke. Everyone right-of-center doesn't just sit around doing nothing all day, even if they aren't catching up on the best board games to play based on politically-issued awards.
I guess that line of thought is that the rebellion that happened in video games could easily happen elsewhere. It might take a different form, since not all audiences should be expected to react like the average gamer circa 2015 (young, male) quietly unsubscribing and continuing the hobby with their friends, making alternate groups, or just sighing and getting along begrudgingly.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
I think this is a fundamentally hard question: "How do we design the system to give incentives to maximize the robustness of infrastructure in the public commons?". I don't have a complete answer here, but it's easy enough to point to failures on both sides of this sort of thing: there has been no shortage of major incidents stemming from unpatched systems on the Internet. This seems like the first major incident in which the systems we put in place discourage that (automating the rollout of security fixes) have, themselves, failed.
I don't think a perfect solution exists today. The NIST guidance to keep your systems updated and install AV is better than nothing, but no checkbox-based system is really substitute for a good head on one's shoulders aware of what's going on. I think there is good discussion to be had about what the rules and incentives should be, but unless your system is "hire smart, capable, competent people", and really even then, I don't expect perfection. And honestly, our really smart, capable people are probably better utilized working on harder problems than IT security for non-life-critical systems.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
Isn't the placement of the Roosevelt in the line of fire shooting down anti-ship missiles with even more expensive missiles already a "long and costly quagmire"? International shipping is effected, but we're choosing to ignore it because it would question our Glorious Leadership's choices a couple years back. It would make The Good Guys look bad.
I'm not even dead set that action is necessary, but if it were it should look more like Operations Praying Mantis or El Dorado Canyon (one-time, rapid, hard strikes), not Iraqi Freedom.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
The Shia were supported by Saudi Arabia, the Sunnis by Iran. In any case, despite great odds against them, the Shia group (known as the Houthis) were able to hold out. Today, they control the capital and most populous regions of Yemen.
I'm not the most familar with the story here, but I'm pretty sure the Houthis are the Iranian proxies. The Saudis were fighting a war with the Houthis until the Biden administration removed their designation as terrorists and loudly brokered a ceasefire. While I'm not going to question that terrible humanitarian things were going on, this seems like another example of poor statecraft by Biden (or his advisors) coming home to roost. The choice to weaken sanctions on Iran sure has made everyone involved play nicely.
I really don't like violence. It's always a terrible option, but it does feel like for all our advanced weapons (see "Prosperity Guardian"), we -- or at least our current leadership -- are unwilling or unable to actually bring them to bear to serve The Greater Good (or at least Pax Americana, which I'd argue is a pretty great good) against various powers that largely sell themselves as fetishistic death cults, because someone might get hurt. I don't like people getting hurt. I really don't. But to allow the enemies of Peace-Loving Western Civilization to dictate the terms of conflicts because of it might produce some tearjerking journalism seems like it's demonstrably causing worse outcomes for everyone.
It seems to me with a growing frequency that a willingness to wield The Big Stick and strike back hard, rather than dribbling out anti-materiel strikes peacemeal might sometimes be a better strategy. If you want to put "Death To America" on your flag and take pot shots at US-flagged warships, nobody should be surprised when we return the favor. In spades. If you want to invade foreign nations, why should we trickle in aid while the body counts stack up? At some point, it saves lives to swing the stick around more heavily: say, mass forces at the border, issue an ultimatum to withdraw, or we send you Back to God. If you want to take American (or Western, more broadly) citizens hostage, you should be prepared for a reckoning from a civilization that cares about its own -- because that's what I'd want my leaders to do for me in that situation.
But that doesn't seem to be the times we live in: our mealy-mouthed leadership, and to be honest, a decent fraction of the electorate, seem more interested in de-escalation and appeasement even at the cost of actual peaceful outcomes. It doesn't feel like it's working: it feels like we're spending lots of effort tracking local focus groups opining on faraway violence and choosing the action that polls best, and pat ourselves on the back while conflicts simmer and boil over.
I'm not here to endorse any particular candidate or platform, merely voicing frustration. I don't want an aggressive foreign policy, but I'm also tired of what feels like peaceful overtures being taken advantage of.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
You know, it would be interesting to at least entertain some of there structural differences as possible reforms to the American system. I know some towns love the local control of their police -- ticket revenue, quiet suburbs with fast response times, and so forth. What would folding them all under (partial?) state-level control look like? Or standardizing the training and professionalism? Intentionally shuffling officers around might improve uniformity and make corruption more difficult (although I suppose that didn't work for the Catholic clergy). Or enforcing weekly gun training -- not just firing and handling, also rapid decision-making.
But I also realize that I'm not knowledgeable enough to have confidence in any of these. Is there literature or trial studies for making these sorts of changes?
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
Knowing nothing but the "I rebuke you in the name of Jesus" quote, it reads to me as a threat (likely very dependent on tone). It comes across like trying to cast out a demon, and search results show no shortage of crazy (psychosis, often drug-involved) people who have engaged in violence to do so.
If someone yelled that at me randomly, I would at least be alert that violence might follow.
That said, leaving would have seemingly worked too.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
because cops signed up voluntarily for a job whose description involves something about keeping the peace and protecting society, and random weirdos did not.
[puts on libertarian fedposting hat]
Now, I was told we live in a society. Us random weirdos have obligations to each other: if I refuse to give my money to the Feds and hole up in a cabin in the woods bothering nobody (and maybe sawing off shotgun barrels, it's not quite clear), they'll happily show up with guns to shoot my family to make sure that I pay my income taxes pound of flesh. I didn't sign up for that! I didn't sign up for the violence inherent in the system!
[takes off hat]
It is at least interesting to me that many of the same folks that have very strong opinions on what the very wealthy (most consistently defined as "wealthier than the speaker") owe to the rest of us also seem to think that everyone other than the very wealthy owe basically nothing to each other. You know, like not initiating physical violence.
On the gripping hand, I haven't watched the full video, but I don't understand why police have, in several instances like this, seemingly avoided just extracting themselves from the situation: as far as I can tell, nobody (else) was thought to be in danger, and just leaving (maybe coming back in the daylight) would have de-escalated.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
For context, 1045 people is about 9 days worth of US traffic deaths.
Ironically, in our rush to deem police as morally bad in 2020, traffic deaths rose from 10.99/100k in 2019 to 12.89 in 2021, around 8000 additional deaths, with no appreciable change in total miles traveled. It's pretty clear to me (and anecdotally, comes up in conversation occasionally as generally accepted) that they basically stopped enforcing traffic laws at the time, which has lead to more deaths than if police killings dropped to zero. And the number of murders went up quite a bit too. I'm fairly confident that, overall, Black Lives Matter has a negative count of (Black) lives saved, but I'm glad (/s) they feel good about their advocacy.
IMO one of these cases where systems are more complicated than they seem. Something about Chesterton and fences, even though I think there's substantial room for improvement in how we do policing and criminal justice overall.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
You're not wrong, but having the foresight to actively setup recording is something non-obvious that may have been overlooked, or even not part of the standard procedure. Do they have a history of recording, and only this one is absent (see the Watergate tapes)? On the other hand, I could point to NASA where "lock the doors" is a planned procedure where in case of incident nobody leaves without a full debrief, and no data wanders off to be missing later.
Given that (publicly known) security incidents under USSS supervision are rare (when was the last one?), perhaps they've not spent much time on post-incident data retention procedures. At a bare minimum, this seems like a good time to demand these changes (recordings, debriefings) after incidents going forward.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
I seem to remember "Cancel culture does not exist" being a thing at the tail end of the BLM2 riots, but before Biden got elected.
There have been plenty of writers advocating that position, but I'm not sure it's really distinct from the classic "it doesn't exist, but it's good actually" argument. It would amuse my internal memeplex if it started getting quoted back to the the cancelled who were previously cancellers, but I'm not sure that includes the lady from Home Depot.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
The real question was how much blood should be taken, with most responses landing somewhere between "massive" and "infinity".
To play Devil's Advocate for a bit, I'm not sure the answer should be zero either. The historical parallel that comes to mind is the difference in long-term outcome between WWI and WWII. Germany lost both, but at the end of the first hadn't really suffered any major damage to its infrastructure or civilian population, since the front lines were mostly beyond their borders. Belgium and parts of France certainly got hit hard, but I can't help but look at how the second war weaved its narrative around the aftermath of the first: Versailles was unfair, but wasn't even fully enforced, and a generation later Germans were thinking not that the lesson to take away was that simultaneously fighting Russia, France, and the UK was doomed to failure, but that "this time, it'll be different." But the lesson from the second, even before the country was split among occupying forces for several generations, was (loosely) "nothing we could have won would have been worth it."
I can't help but think that to at least some extent, history teaches the costs of the war need to be at least plausibly fairly distributed to discourage revanchism. And I think that could easily be applied to the Culture War: yes, that absolutely sucks for the victims, but ensuring a long-term stable peace is plausibly cheaper than the short term concerns here. Giving one's opponent, after they've inflicted a serious beating, a chance to tap out before getting hit back seems like a recipe for convincing enough people that it might be worth it to try again later.
On the other hand, I don't wholly endorse this view: I generally side with Asimov that "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." But I don't think the idea is completely meritless either.
VoxelVexillologist
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2yr ago
I think the honeymoon phase for politicians ends pretty quickly once real policy changes are being proposed. It's easy to present oneself as a reasonable, upstanding figure that wants what's best for everyone. It's much harder to keep that image when tough choices have to be made.
Voters can agree that the status quo sucks, but in aggregate hate any suggested changes to it. I don't think the honeymoon will continue once Harris has had to clarify her positions on immigration, inflation, the Middle East, and Ukraine. Thus far she's mostly been hiding (or perhaps forced to hide) behind Biden's positions, and there is no combination of views there that satisfies all the left's core constituencies.
I had a bunch of unexpected time to read recently, and finally finished Hyperion. It's pretty long, but I thought the prose was really well-written. I found each of the tales to be pretty interesting. If I had to pick a favorite, the Scholar's tale was pretty poignant as a parent. I was expecting a bit more of a, well, conclusion to the primary story line, but I wasn't unsatisfied. Not sure if I'll pick up its sequel: my general experience has been that sequels (in both movies and books) tend to not be quite as great about world building, and I have a long list of classic books to read already.
Then I started and got about halfway through The Diamond Age, after reading Cryptonomicon and Snow Crash a while back. Interesting concepts in The Diamond Age, and I see why it's so frequently referenced.
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