VoxelVexillologist
πΊπΈ Multidimensional Radical Centrist
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User ID: 64
And Iran was (supposedly) seizing tankers illegally within just the last few months (although so was the US near Venezuela, with at least paper legal authority on incorrectly-flagged vessels). Admittedly, those probably weren't US-flagged and if this were (hypothetical) a response to that it'd probably still be overzealous.
We did not assassinate the ruler of Algeria and his family while they were sleeping, or set the entire city ablaze.
No, but several European powers (the British and the Dutch) collectively bombarded Algiers in 1816 before the treaty ending the Second Barbary War was finalized. A bit later the French invaded, forcing the Dey to abdicate in 1830.
I think you're not wrong that different takes on foreign policy are informed differently by history, but I don't think that is necessarily a better take. If it were, Putin's "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" might have landed differently. How is citing the history of the Kievan Rus working out for him?
I do think it's important to consider the long-term impacts of normalizing certain types of uses of force, though.
Real patriots β in the eyes of the Founding Fathers β donβt start unjust and unnecessary wars for a random foreign tribe 6000 miles away.
The Founding Fathers themselves (Jefferson! Madison!) lived long enough to send the nascent US Navy and Marine Corps to attack distant nations (also Muslim) a mere 4500 miles away. Twice.
Giving Iran anything after they close the Strait is tantamount to recognizing their sovereignty over it, de facto if not legally.
My suspicion is that the other Gulf states with interests in shipping through the Strait, which don't currently consider themselves part of the conflict, won't be satisfied with a long-term resolution that involves Iran setting up a toll booth controlling traffic. While they might not have the armed forces to directly threaten Iran on land, they can certainly block Iranian shipping at least as well as Iran can threaten theirs, in ways that the US Navy might choose not to for political reasons. Think "aerially mining all of Iran's ports" after the US has conveniently removed all anti-air assets.
But I also am pretty sure that any not-dumb parties involved already have considered these prospects.
It says something, and I'm not quite sure what, that there is very little "fiction" film on YouTube compared to informational content. Unless there are a bunch of telenovela channels the algorithm has never shown me.
To avoid Godwin, I might suggest "Hutu Power Radio" talk, but there are plenty of other tragic historical references you could make.
To say nothing of Mers-el-KΓ©bir!
No one calls it terrorism when you bomb an army base but some collateral damage kills civilians too.
American authorities have done this regularly since at least the 1983 Beirut bombing, through the attack on the Cole, and the Kabul bombing just a few years back. Maybe their definition is slightly more consistent if you expected uniforms while doing combat actions, but "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" isn't completely wrong either.
The US has been blockading Venezuela and Cuba international shipping without any sort of war.
Are either of these strictly a "blockade"? The Cuba embargo is strictly rules on US businesses in (most, but not all) industries doing business with Cuba. Other countries' ships and planes can and do go in and out there. The closest to a blockade proper was the Cuban Missile Crisis, but that's quite a long time ago now.
There were some seized ships going to Venezuela recently, but those were nominally illegally-flagged vessels ("shadow fleet") in international waters. I don't think correctly-flagged vessels saw any disruption.
Blockades aren't unheard of in hot warfare, though.
Azerbaijan is the cleanest example. They hit Lebanon just recently, too.
Oman has also been hit, and is more neutral than the others listed, but has hosted US forces on occasion.
Theoretically, this might pressure those countries to abandon the US, but that's a high stakes choice.
It could, but it could also see the Gulf countries that depend on commerce through the strait deciding that Iran is now an existential threat for them. Rumors of demands for post-war traffic control (payments) in the strait probably aren't endearing Iran with its neighbors.
The anti-Iran "alliance" here is presumably capable of blockading Iran's ports just as well. This is probably bad for oil-importing countries in terms of gas prices, but allowing defecting in the prisoners dilemma of blocking oil exports is a losers game. A blockade is contra a lot of things the US Navy claims to stand for (free flow of commerce), but if UAE or the Saudis decide to mine Iran's ports by air, would they stop them?
On the gripping hand, it feels bad that the US/Israel seem to have started this, but the incentives are such that a bunch of usual allies are going to get dragged in: no matter what they say about "Trump's war", the EU and East Asia need the ships to flow at least as badly as the US does.
You buy the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index to keep your 250 million alive.
The Real Communism is when the workers collectively own the means of production... In their 401K or pension plans. Wait, it already looks like that, even if the asset distribution isn't exactly equal (ask not why Party Members get nicer apartments and Ladas, comrade!).
parallel institution in America
Nothing is stopping leftists from establishing some American equivalent of a kibbutz. Attempts at communes have been made, most failing for the standard reasons communism fails at scales larger than Dunbar's number: everyone wants to make lattes and write poetry, nobody wants to wake up at 0400 to milk cows, plow fields, and fix septic systems.
January 6th but the protestors bring guns and launch a real coup.
The protesters on January 6th only made it as far as they did because they were "unarmed" (I'm not going to say they didn't engage in violence, but I still have yet to hear of a single gun charge for the incident). There was a lot of room for escalation by local and federal authorities earlier that wasn't taken because of some combination of rules about unarmed protesters (yours are not) and confusion of executive/legislative authority (which you don't have). The National Guard could well have shown up with bullhorns and 50 cals ordering everyone to leave or be fired upon, but for the optics of the situation, which I think are much clearer in your situation. And even beyond that, I bet the same folks who showed up unarmed for "stop the steal" (arguably self-described counter-coup) protests would be easily persuaded to show up as an armed countercoup to a real regime change.
I don't think communism is popular enough in the US for this to work at the present. I'd suggest trying to swing local elections, but Soros' DAs seem to be pushing centrist voters towards "at least self-described fascists don't immediately let murderers out on cashless bail" faster than convincing them of the merits of progressivism.
"Plans are worthless, but planning is everything" is usually attributed to Eisenhower, and is a statement I generally find most reasonable.
I have long wondered whether Israel's Iron Dome, which openly tracks expected impact points and only intercepts high-value rockets, is setup to include Al-Aqsa. I can see arguments for either (maybe even changing over time), but no reason to actually disclose this policy choice.
I think it would be interesting to allow a lower level of effort (a paragraph or so) for links relating to events older than a specified interval --- tentatively a week, maybe even a month. If necessary, those could be confined to a single thread.
Wasn't there an article going around recently about German police knocking on doors at 5AM for online meme posts that fell a bit short of the letter of German criminal law?
Apparently that didn't stop Illinois residents from trying to rename "Hassert Boulevard", which was not named after him.
That was a moment in which I realized that people destined for that level of achievement are often different from the rest of us. Like, I didn't do badly at a good high school, but I wasn't logging my social calendar purely out of principle; I was playing video games and hanging out with friends when I wasn't doing homework.
Of course Kavanaugh seems to have gotten in plenty of partying too. Like I said, different.
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I think one of the big changes since I was in the dating market (it's been a while) is that the size of local social system for both sexes is drastically larger than it used to be. Twenty years ago, I think the median dating pool was maybe in the low 3 figures: college undergraduates that cross paths, coworkers (even across departments), church members, bar and social group regulars. Somewhere around Dunbar's number, unless you went looking for speed-dating or something specifically. Dating apps, if nothing else, have made the "ocean" (seem) bigger, and I think some of the consequences we're seeing are reactions to that: "the highest status" is much higher than it used to be, and although rankings will vary person-to-person, everyone is now looking for something like the best 1-in-10000 where before they might have thought 1-in-100 was a great match.
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