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VoxelVexillologist

🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist

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joined 2022 September 04 18:24:54 UTC 

				
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VoxelVexillologist


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
🇺🇸 Multidimensional Radical Centrist

				
				
				

				

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					joined 2022 September 04 18:24:54 UTC
				


				
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I suppose on that front it's not surprising that the Hugging Face incident didn't occur at Meta or Google.  But the hubris of self-declared experts here is ironic, at best.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Transnational Thursday for September 10, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


the general perspective projection




Anyone who adopts anything else thinks they can map the surface of the earth to a Euclidean plane: they're literally flat-Earthers!  Although if you have concerns about perspective distortion I can be sympathetic: no maps -- everyone can only use globes!


/s


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Aerospace welding has enough precision going into it that "we spent tons of money automating it to reduce process variation" (structural flaws caused by human tolerances) has long been on the table, regardless of the financial efficacy.  Even literal amateurs have been building automation for this for quite a while.


The real jobs to watch are the ones that are cost-sensitive and sufficiently-varied to make automation difficult.  I'd watch industrial textile sewing, fruit-picking, or things like that.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
You're not wrong, but I usually find that incompetent people aren't particularly self-aware.  Knowing that what you're doing is dangerous (they say so themselves!) and choosing to do it anyway (they did!) together IMHO go beyond incompetence and into questioning-motives territory.  But I can't rule out that they are just spectacularly incompetent and should (be forced to?) step back from their goals for the sake of the rest of us.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I, for one, have trouble believing that the same folks preaching the dangers of ASI unwittingly used just a proxy to poorly-sandbox for "take off all the guardrails" pen testing.  At least a few corporate networks I've known have, pre-AI, built more layers of security than this.  Accounts of "my work computer can't access the Internet" are something I've heard plenty of times.


If this is their normal model (maybe believable: move fast and break things), I'd also be concerned about the other direction: a nation-state actor would only need to pass through Artifactory (maybe a supply chain attack on hosted packages) to start egressing model weights, which is their entire trade secrets.


The methods of running a true air-gapped system are well-documented, and I'm pretty sure someone at OpenAI is already doing it for government contracting.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The Manhattan Project scientists had only recently convinced themselves that an atomic bomb wouldn't set off an atmospheric nitrogen chain reaction a couple years before Trinity.  Despite their confidence at the time, I'd point to the Castle Bravo test a few years later (which was drastically larger than expected) as a suggestion their knowledge was imperfect.


But also it was wartime, which at least emotionally changes the calculus.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Art is meh, writing style is terrible. Part of this is the lack of RLVR




I think these are categorically different than math: the theorem prover languages are at least a clear Boolean success criterion.  "Is this painting/book good?" is canonically an opinion question without a singular answer.


From what I can tell, human-driven post-training has historically been done with English speakers hireable at low hourly rates, but probably not ones that appreciate Ulysses (I certainly haven't read it).  Even if they could afford English department grad students, would they be willing to train, effectively, their replacements?  How do you rank the writing styles of Faulkner versus Hemingway?  It seems there is at least some room for legitimate creativity there.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Gaming journalism also had a problem with fairly consistently giving high scores to games audiences didn't like.  You see it occasionally in film with divergence between critic and audience scores (The Last Jedi was well received by critics), but games are longer than movies and sometimes it was clear the reviewers hadn't played much of the game at all.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
As in literal slot machines?  I'd always heard that the Vegas gaming authorities made that a surprisingly-regulated software industry, up there with aerospace or automotive.  Not that those are perfect, but they at least have standards for their code to adhere to.


But maybe "write this in MISRA C" (automotive) isn't as much of a moat as it sounded, now that I think about it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Previous results have been basically irrelevant to the sciences.




I don't know if you'd consider it, but Anthropic (Mythos) found an issue with HAWK, one of the finalists (but not the finalized standard) for post-quantum cryptographic signatures.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Does anyone think that an ethnically English Aussie granted UK citizenship would fall under the same danger of being deported as a Pakistani for these people?




The most likely scenario seems that "these people" (Reform? AfD?) would enact fascially-neutral laws to deport, say, convicted violent or sex criminals.  That such laws would have a disparate impact on your English-descent Aussie and a Pakistani seems to follow from a lot of data discussed here regularly.  I doubt even most of "these people" would support anything strictly based on ethnicity.


And that just gets you back to the Culture War: see left-leaning judges lowering sentences or dropping charges to avoid deportation thresholds, or the State in Rotherham looking the other way at violent sex crimes for years.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But they haven’t done that in 40 years.




Ann Richards won the 1990 governor election, which isn't quite 40 years ago, and there were a few other statewide offices through the mid 90s that Democrats won.  Texas hasn't been a red state, much less a very red one,  as long as most people seem to think.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
One thing I hadn't considered until it was pointed out to me recently is that a lot of domestic heating in Europe is done with in-room radiators circulating hot water.  You can't just reverse that and cool using cold water because you'll get condensation that it wasn't designed for.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Ken Paxton isn't a nationally important race,




How do you feel about Talarico's chances?  It'd be nationally important if the Republicans lose control of the Senate by a losing seat in Texas, of all places.  Paxton's odds feel much worse than Cornyn's would have been, and the decision to primary a long-time incumbent with someone of Paxton's, uh, moral character seems at least a potential own-goal.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Because if anything was found to be better than MMA, it would get integrated into MMA.




Are there any (effective) strategies that are banned on the basis of risking death or permanent injury?  I'm pretty sure MMA has at least a few rules on sportsmanship that might lose in a true Thunderdome competition.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


EU leadership escalates the war towards an outcome where Russia straight loses




I think the classic concern is that their ideas of "winning" and "losing" might differ enough that the conflict won't end on a time scale the EU can tolerate.  I'd be concerned that "we can inflict casualties on them tenfold [an optimistic assumption itself, maybe], but can't politically sustain 10,000 combat deaths" might go poorly against an army that is demonstrably willing to lose 100k men.


Exact ratios there are difficult to plan for: the Gulf War (1991) was close to 100-to-1, Ukraine seems much closer to even.  And whether or not American forces were involved would also impact how things would unfold.


Earnestly, "the only winning move is not to play fight", and I like the Baltics as countries.  But it's not trivial to make your counterparties accept that peace is the best choice if they feel otherwise.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Of course this only shows the fragility of the our democracy™ sometimes also known as liberal democracy.




A lot of platitudes about the ideals of democracy completely gloss over the "two wolves and a sheep voting on what is for dinner" part.  If your electorate is sufficiently homogeneous (all sheep, or even all wolves) this isn't an issue, but in practice a heterogeneous democracy really depends on a shared sense of liberal civic values: voters need to accept that nobody gets blasphemy laws, or they'll keep voting for them.  Sure, you can set higher thresholds for changing your constitutions, but that only leans on a balance of voters and isn't really stable when increasing fractions of your voters don't like it.  Demographics there do matter, especially relative to cosmopolitanism.


And worse, there isn't even broad agreement on what "a shared sense of liberal civic values" should be.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I suppose you're probably right on a literal level here, but it seems like there needs to be some level of notoriety to the claims, or it's almost trivially true of any public figure.  It's probably true for every member of Congress.  It might be true for most city council persons nationwide, even.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Every single Republican candidate has been literally Hitler since literally Hitler,




Was Eisenhower ever accused of this?  His, uh, "punching Nazis" bona fides are effectively unquestionable. I'd buy it for every other one, though.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 31, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
For all the things that "woke" did, it frustrates me that "CSI is garbage science" wasn't one of them.  TV shows gives unrealistic expectations, and the actual forensic science has longstanding, real concerns about accuracy in certain not-uncommon uses (bite marks, splatter patterns).  AFAIK DNA and fingerprints are fairly robust, though.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 31, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Why don't every murderer in Massachusetts just go for the insanity defense?




I don't think our insanity defenses are really as coherent as I'd like them to be.  I don't have a much better proposal, but the combination of "no sane person willfully kills another (involuntarily, to disclaim euthanasia)" and "it's only murder if it's done by someone sane in the moment", neither of which strike me as incontrovertibly wrong at an axiomatic level, implies "murder is not a commit-able crime", which strikes me as obviously wrong.


Any recommendations on how we're supposed to square that circle?


And that's in addition to dramatic unclarity about "reasonable doubt" and P-values (the law seems to refuse to specify a number).  I can only hope if I'm charged with a crime to have a particle physicist on my jury for whom five sigma (p < 3e-7) is a reasonable threshold for conclusions.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 4, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Nevada (not Las Vegas, though) is much closer to LA.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 31, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's a Russell conjugation, like many things: "My preferred rights are inalienable and self-evident.  Yours deserve legal protection.  That guy over there only has them subject to the next referendum."


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 31, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


"Socialists" tend to stop at their own borders




Ask Finland about how the USSR stopped at its own borders.  Or eastern Poland.


And even when they do stop at borders, they do things like build "anti-fascist" walls to keep their serfs "citizens" in.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 31, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Ah, the classic 2021 Yglesias tweet:




It's kinda weird that deplatforming Trump just like completely worked with no visible downside whatsoever




I'm not sure if I've seen him comment on that one with recent hindsight.