ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1hr ago
On one level, the charge of hyperagency / hypoagency framework isn't a strawman as I'm not saying it's the argument being made, it's what I am characterizing the argument's form as in a meta-contextual description.
But it's exactly your characterization of the argument's form that I'm objecting to, not any specific claim you're making about the lead-up to the conflict, or the invasion itself. Hyperagency / hypoagency is something that's wrong on it's face. Generally in life there's few situations where someone has all the power while someone else has none, let alone in geopolitics, let alone when the country with hypoagency is supposed to be one like Russia. The reason why I'm objecting to the characterization is that portraying the argument's form this way allows for dismissing the actual argument, without touching it's substance. So even if this isn't technically a strawman, it ends up working in a very similar way.
A more accurate characterization of the argument's form is something like a "pawn sacrifice". Every game with even the most basic strategic element will involve making a move, and hoping your opponent will respond in a way that you can take advantage of. That's what the US / the West is being "accused" of here, except it's not really much of an accusation, because that's just politics. Nowhere in there is "hypoagency" being attributed to any actor. If we go with the example of Johnson's visit, I'll apologize for intuitively reaching for a portrayal of the affair that makes it look like the west was imposing it's will, but it doesn't matter whether they did it by screaming or sweet-talk, threats or bribery, the point is that they made a move hoping for certain results. If the whole thing ends up being a quagmire for Russia, and Ukraine gets out of it with just a few bruises, I will have to tip my hat to the western establishment, and congratulate them for a game well played. If it turns out to be a disaster for Ukraine, on the other hand, they will end up looking incompetent. If it turns out they always knew it would be a disaster for Ukraine they will end up looking callous. You can attribute the majority of agency in the situation to Russia, and I don't see how it changes the above calculus.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4hr ago
other than claims generally fronted by Russian-originated sources
Just to clarify, the most recent source of the claim, that I'm familiar with, was some high-ranking Ukrainian official. There were also some German politicians saying things to this effect, but I think they were from the terminally pro-Russian faction, so I was taking that with a grain of salt until more recently.
OTOH, I probably oversold how confident I am in the claim, this is in the "something that popped up on my feed, and I never followed up" category.
appeal to the hyperagency/hypoagency framework
But on this I have to push back. Framing it as a "the hyperagency/hypoagency framework" is a strawman, or a weakman at best. The point being made here isn't that Russians literally couldn't make another choice, it's that an American / Western move put them in a position where war seems like the best of all possible options. Normally this isn't a controversial framework, the US was justifying it's own invasion of Iraq in exactly the same way, not long ago.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
8hr ago
To me, this is a bonus: I welcome most if not all animal sounds
It would be nice of dogs could STFU somewhat, but otherwise I agree.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
9hr ago
OTOH, this makes a mockery of conservative opposition to cancel culture.
How long do you have to warn people "don't do this or the same tactics will be used against you when the tide turns" before it's ok to make good on the warning?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I do appreciate the disagreements, for what it's worth. You argue straight and clearly, and even if I remain stubborn, it tends to be the kind of disagreement that triggers some introspection.
And in any case laughing at my jokes will always trump disagreement.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Two can play this game - why did he go there if he had nothing to say, offer, or threaten with?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I never said they were "hell bent".
"Either you go balls to the wall with this now, with Europe's and USA's full support, and potential rewards if you manage to win, or you're out on your own" is a pretty compelling carrot/stick combination. I don't see how Brexit enters into the picture if the Western establishment was of more or less of one mind on this.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
How am I supposed to know? It's not like I was in those behind-closed-doors meetings, but that those meetings took place in response to the Russian peace offer is not in question, as far as I understand. I would imagine he did it the way countries usually do - the threat of withholding some carrot, or applying some stick, or both.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I'm not sure why you're reiterating your point about it being bad, when I explicitly said that it's not about that.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
lol you can't just drop a wiki to comparative advantage. Robots and computers can do everything better, and cheaper. More so by the hour, I'm sorry.
Yes I can, because even in your response you're not addressing the point of comparative advantage. It usually is still more profitable for a person, and even country, that does everything better, to trade with a country that does everything worse. There's a reason why the west is actually buying manually mined cobalt.
99% of mined resources are coming from almost fully automated mines, why are you so focused on the few that have a terrible human cost?
Like I said in the other comment, my comment had nothing to do with the relative amount of resources produced through manual labor, I was just responding to the various AI scenarios put forward by rationalists.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
It's not a question of it being good or bad, it's a question of not being able to understand the outrage at being forced to fight and die as others are out having fun.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
If the Ukrainian government wanted to surrender, they could do so tomorrow without asking for anyone's permission.
Other countries have agency too.
Agency doesn't mean free choice. When they tried mere negotiations, Boris Johnson flew over to scream at them until they stopped.
This is so bizarre to me. Ukrainian women are... people? They are not the property of Ukrainian men. They are not obliged to restrain from forming relationships or otherwise trying to live their lives because they happen to be refugees.
Are the men the property of the Ukrainian government? Dase recently got in trouble for lashing out against this kind of "innocent" "shucks! I don't know what you could possibly mean" debate tactics, and while I don't want to be as aggressive as he was, I do share his frustration. This kind of clap-on / clap-off - we're just individuals pursuing happiness / we're part of a larger whole and you have to fulfill your duty to society, is somewhat maddening.
I'm not sure how that's implied. My point was addressing the idea of AI causing technological unemployment, or the more optimistic scenario of AI freeing us to do commit to higher intellectual pursuits. I've made no claim about the ratios of resources mined with manual human labor vs automated AI labor.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
and it's not because the Congolese have a comparative advantage in digging holes.
The hell it's not! If they didn't have a comparative advantage there, they wouldn't be able to sell their cobalt.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
So an almost fully automated mine can do in 22 days what it took 30-60 thousand people 43 years to do in the past. I bet no one even died in those 22 days, or even in 2 years, most open pit mines are pretty safe these days!
Everything will mechanised and automated. It just makes too much sense, which is why everyone who can manage to do so, does it.
What you're missing is that the question isn't just what a fully automated mine can do compared to 30-60 thousand people, it's also what those resources could have done if they didn't go to automating that mine. There's a reason why rich, automated, countries are buying resources mined by manual labor.
This is all pretty basic economics
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Two things:
- If he actually says he changed his mind, we can have a conversation from here, but half his schtick is pretending the "just of couple crazy kids on college campuses" was in fact just of couple crazy kids on college campuses, and Steelman Progressives never actually believed any of the craziness.
- I feel a certain dissonance between changing your mind about something in a timespan of 2 years, and acting like it's "the first thing" to grant in a negotiation.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
CRITICAL RACE THEORY!!!
(horror movie thunder sound cue)
Cute, but it would be easier to believe that attempt at mockery isn't posturing, if everyone in the mainstream didn't flip out when alt-righters apply the exact same theory.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
I'm going to wonder aloud here: maybe the current crop of woke storytelling is a bad reaction to the justified feelings about female characters in earlier games being focused on their art, uh, assets rather than narrative fulfillment
You could maybe make the case for the current crop of female 3d modelling, but storytelling? Miranda, as well as all the other ladies of Mass Effect, were all properly fleshed out characters, with their stories, struggles, charms and flaws. You could put them all in a niqab, and they'd still be interesting characters (as proven by Tali). The current crop of female characters are all cardboard cut-outs. Miranda's ass tipping the domino that launched a chain reaction leding to the collapse of the skyscraper of game writing, makes absolutely no sense.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Browser-based privacy preferences: Users can configure their browser to always accept, refuse-if-possible, or warn-or-block different types of cookies from websites. Websites are forbidden from displaying a cookie/privacy popup if the browser is configured properly.
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Why do you give me your toughest cookies?
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Jesus: Just install a damn adblocker, Robert.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
In developed countries, yes., in others not necessarily.
Secondly, the reason we would go back to that is that if we come up with a technology to automate away valuable intellectual labor, you'll get more bang for the buck by investing in that, than investing automating manual labor. Trying to refute the idea with the current economics of mining makes no sense.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
You haven't heard of "artisenal mining"? Or are you objecting to the "feeding the bugs" part?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
Yes it does. People who have talents in more lucrative fields than mining, tend to go those fields, even if they are better than the average miner.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6d ago
automation of manual labour tasks is certainly feasible (and has been achieved in many cases) and more such jobs in these domains will eventually become obsolete once technological advances make the cost of doing so lower than employing human labour
Way back when, before I joined this place but was already keeping an eye on the rat-sphere, one of the AI Apocalypse scenarios thrown around was "technological unemployment", and one of the counter-arguments to it, other than "it's just a hype-fad" was "comparative advantage". Already at that time the Rats have discredited themselves as careful thinkers in my eyes, because they waved it away with the magic of recursive improvement. A careful thinker would look at where the logic of comparative advantage leads, and it's the scenario I outlined. You see it's not enough that we eventually figure out robotic/AI alternatives to manual labor, and it's not even enough that they are strictly superior to human labor in every way, they have to be superior to devoting the same AI resources to something else while having humans dig the fucking hole.
But back to your point, yeah the progress in AI is pretty wild, and people predicting that nothing will come out of it were clearly wrong. At the same time I'm having trouble saying anything meaningful about it, or where it will end up going, which is why I kind of went off topic relative to your original post.
Show me those AD-AS curves, baby...
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