arsv
11mo ago
Ukraine joining NATO would have meant that a major military alliance would sit directly on its border, severely shrinking Russia’s strategic buffer zone
Well FWIW Peter Zeihan is a big fan of this theory. Not sure which way it weights though, given it's Peter Zeihan.
(except that the NATO part is a red herring and is usually skipped, including by Zeihan iirc)
arsv
11mo ago
However, this outage reportedly occurred mid-day, when the power load is relatively stable.
There are hints that Spain might have lost a line from France amounting to about 10% of total consumption.
That's a large shift, but on the supply side, not on the load side.
Possibly followed by cascading trips downstream due to mismanagement/negligence/general unpreparedness for such a situation. At least that would be my initial "benign" version of what happened.
I would personally file Mearsheimer under "pure expansionism, and that's not bad", taking his arguments realistically and in good faith. His justification through spheres of influence and great powers does not require any actual threat to be present.
Zeihan is lot more straightforward, he talks about very conventional military threat, in very direct conventional sense. Like actual land invasion.
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