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campfireSmores


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 05 11:43:11 UTC

				

User ID: 539

campfireSmores


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 05 11:43:11 UTC

					

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User ID: 539

Magnolia is my favorite Cruise performance.

It's not easy to think of an IP that's buyable that has nearly as much pull as lord of the rings. Almost everything famous is owned by someone that doesn't want to sell it. Amazon already acquired MGM for 8.5 billion dollars (the James Bond owners), so there's that.

And Netflix is in the same boat as Amazon with regards to "Oh shit we don't own enough IP, what can we buy/license" so they're going to be bidding against each other.

The only big one I can think of that isn't already outright owned by someone who is making full use of it and therefore probably won't license it is Godzilla.

Smaller ones:

Popeye

Starship Troopers (the novel)

Robocop (which Amazon now owns through the MGM deal)

I think an adaptation of Stand Still Stay Silent or Bad Machinery would be cool. Two webcomics.

I try to care about artistic merit and not intellectual property/license/brand. But I do think some Nintendo movies would be cool. Nintendo's probably already got their course plotted out with Illumination though. There's probably some other videogames from other corporations that might be worth licensing.

Elon didn't walk back his twitter purchase out of bipolarity, he did it because his net worth crashed when the tech stocks did. No mental illness required as an explanation.

In my opinion.

I see a lot of people get indicted and convincted for simple words, stuff that would be obviously and uncontroversally protected speech in the US. That bothers me.

There are other things. Banning homeschooling, banning yawaras, etc.

Possible solution: Say "I'm pretty sure X will happen. Let's say 80% sure." Sounds very unassuming that way.

Why?

ultra-hardcore Taiwanese nationalists

There's something to be said for using nukes. Game theory. I'm sleepy, but using game theoretic deterrents are kind of rational, I think. Maybe, I need to read up on that.

Let's talk about infant male circumcision. Common in the United States, considered beastly in most European countries. But they don't spend much time criticizing the United States about it, perhaps due to fear of being called anti-semitic.

Reasons not to do it:

The foreskin has functions

Bad for the infant's brain due to inadequate aenesthesia

Complications ranging from meatal stenosis to more grisly and life-changing outcomes

Etc etc

Anyway, besides just introducing a topic I believe is underdiscussed both on the Motte and in general, my questions are this:

How do you rate the importance of this issue relative to commonly discussed culture war stuff? If it is true that circumcision is a serious violation akin to rape, then it seems very very important.

and

Does anyone on this board support routine infant circumcision, or is this thread just going to be full of a lot of devil's advocate stuff?

Well this seems like a good time to do the standard rationalist technique "what evidence could convince you otherwise".

What evidence could convince you that infant circumcision reduces sexual pleasure?

Because it seems to me like once you understand what the foreskin does and how sex is different without it, how could it not?

What arguments do you speak of? What about them do you find unpersuasive?

Well there are other ways to hurt a brain besides lowering IQ. Neuroticism, Autism, etcetera.

What does it mean to care about this issue but not care about human rights? I care about making the world a better place, and ending infant circumcision would do that.

People should get in the habit of solving coordination problems. Yudkowsky, dath ilan, etcetera. The "weirdness points" thing is a coordination problem.

These are extremely rare

The rate of serious problems is debated. For instance, Intactivists say stuff like this

"Study design has an effect on the estimation of complication rates. Prospective studies, in which complications are tracked going forward from the circumcision via follow-up examinations, theoretically should capture the incidence of complications most accurately.[11] On the other hand, retrospective studies typically rely on a review of patient charts, a form of data that was recorded for a purpose other than research. Inaccuracies in the medical record (e.g. the not uncommon possibility that the complication was not charted in the first place) tend to lead to underestimation of complication incidence.[12] Even less reliable are retrospective database studies which can only capture events that have had an actual diagnostic or procedure code listed upon discharge.[E.g. 13] It has been estimated that database studies may miss up to 90-95% of complications.[14]"

I do not believe you can demonstrate a significant difference in population-level outcomes.

There are some studies showing a significant difference. Here's a list:

https://www.doctorsopposingcircumcision.org/for-professionals/psychological-impact/

Autism is 5 times more prevalent in the United States than in Europe, some people think MGM might have something to do with it.

We used to perform other surgeries on babies without anesthetic, do you think that had a long term effect on their psychologies? From Wikipedia: "It is now accepted that the neonate responds more extensively to pain than the adult does, and that exposure to severe pain, without adequate treatment, can have long-term consequences." Do you think science is just generally wrong about this? It seems to me like the idea that torturing babies has long term psychological consequences is just obviously what we should predict based on priors. Are you really skeptical?

There are a lot of Jews who do a religious ritual called the Brit Shalom instead. Religions give up stuff all the time; I think the transition would be easier than you imagine. What percentage of Mormons still practice polygamy? Catholics no longer say that people who commit suicide go to hell. Etc etc etc.

I don't think the hyper-progressive coalition was saying it would be terrible if Elon Musk didn't buy twitter. Only that the way he was trying to get out of it was dishonest.

I bought Alan Moore's new book of short stories and so far I'm not that into it. It's rare for me to not like anything Moorish. But I bought another book Sharing a House with the Never-Ending Man by Steven Alpert and I like it a lot. Alpert is the highest ranking non-Japanese guy at Studio Ghibli and he's got lots of interesting stories about Japanese business culture and stuff. Did you know that most non-Japanese men speak Japanese like a woman? According to the book it's because most Japanese language teachers are women.

Also, here's the rationalist steam group, if you're interested:

https://steamcommunity.com/groups/astralcodexten

Interesting...

I don't think that's quite what would happen but it's late at night and I'm tired. It seems like the right-wing/orthodox coalition would be pulled along with popular sentiment, and things would realign in a new equilibrium where the orthodox aren't be given the things that they were, but the right isn't disempowered.

There's currently a Request for Comment on the talk page for the Standards of Care for the Health of Transgender and Gender Diverse People regarding this issue.

A model of 3D printed rifle called the FGC-9 (which stands for F*** Gun Control) is being used by rebels fighting against the authoritarian genocidal military junta in Myanmar which regained power after a military coup deposed the democratically elected leader in 2021. If that's not enough, the government of Myanmar is not at all shy about killing civilians, from what I've heard.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/guns-are-being-3d-printed-myanmar-199401

https://observers.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220114-3d-printed-weapons-myanmar-rebels

Apparently they've got 3D printers set up in guerilla jungle hideouts. The creator of the FGC-9 was a young German-Kurdish man named Jstark who died recently, possibly of a heart condition.

My thoughts: It's sad that some progressive organizations might be reluctant to bring positive attention to the rebels or the tools they use because it arguably hurts their cause or something.

If I was a guy like Jstark or Cody Wilson, and I was concerned about PR, I might say something truthful but strategic like "the most important thing to me is getting these files somewhere where they can't be taken down and where they can be accessed by anyone, because that's the only way for me to help rebels like these. I care about the downsides of making these guns available, but I've calculated things and it is greatly overshadowed by the upside." Or something. I didn't phrase that well.

Edit: A cleaner way to say it: "the moral benefit of 3D-printed guns to citizens living under brutal authoritarian dictatorships in places like Myanmar is so great that the harm caused to the rest of the world would need to be truly massive in order to outweigh it, and I do not believe it is so massive, if it is indeed a net harm to the wellbeing of other countries."

I'm skeptical that the real IQ of Arabs is 80. Arabs where? Arabs in Israel? Also... Sephardic jews have an IQ of 92? I'm skeptical of that as well.

"Some have lasted over a thousand rounds, which is impressive, but military weapons last for tens of thousands of rounds. I’d imagine the FGC-9 acts like a modern Liberator pistol."

They're useful, I think.

People in Latin America are getting use out of cryptocurrencies. Does that not count?

This would be a wakeup call for me if I thought all aspiring rationalists were operating at a level of rationalism too high to dig themselves into a hole like this, but I did not in fact have such a high opinion of this community (which I do like very much).

Definitely true. I once talked with someone who realized circumcision was immoral but thought red vs blue stuff was more important. I don't think her calculation was fully rational. It could be that she wasn't willing to be a nonconformist.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/books/review/charlie-kaufman-by-the-book-interview.html

"You’re organizing a literary dinner party. Which three writers, living or dead, would you invite?

I’ve always loved this exercise, the imaginary dinner party! What fun! I see Oscar Wilde there, of course, Voltaire, Carol Saroyan Saroyan Matthau (wife of William Saroyan, William Saroyan, and Walter Matthau, and a writer in her own right), Hitler (not witty but quite a “get”), Edie Sitwell, Molière, Oscar Wilde (so witty I thought why not double him and place him on each end of the table so everyone could enjoy his witticisms?), Aristophanes, and Sir Kenneth Dover (to translate Aristophanes’ jokes for the other guests). That’s more than three, but one must assume there will be cancellations. Oh, and Jesus."