chooky
21d ago
Greater than 10% of apocalypse over the next decade? That is such spectacular risk tolerance that I have a hard time believing this 10% number is genuinely held, which could just be that the people who believe in the "10%" chance do not really know what it means to take a 10% risk.
chooky
22d ago
Isn't the accusation that all the frontier model did was train on the draft proof by Buckmaster, and then OpenAI published the model's work as original, in which case the frontier model is not really outcompeting mathematicians?
Or is my summary of the controversy incorrect? I agree with your post's conclusions about what it would mean for Buckmaster's accusations to be unfounded, but it is not clear to me either way.
chooky
22d ago
Sort of. Audience acquisition is very expensive, and kid magazines, by definition, constantly have acquisition costs. The Cricket model where kids graduate to new levels of content is not bad, but the market can only get so saturated. I doubt that even Cricket has yet reached a point of stable subscriptions.
chooky
23d ago
Yes, but is the novel written by Severian as the events are happening in his clueless state? The narrator makes many choices about what and how to relate.
chooky
24d ago
I would not want to bet against near-term healthcare spending simply because of demographics, which is to say healthcare spending is driven by old people who either get it for free from the government, are getting extra free money from the government or are benefiting from equities.
chooky
26d ago
Even the more limited version is kind of surprising. I would have thought that as N goes to infinity, it becomes impossible to find pairs of primes within a fixed distance. I'll have to go read what's so special about 186.
The Zoomer/Trump conservatism seems to just be blatant self-dealing. The "Boomer" version was a lot better, but the reality is that Boomers are in fact the most guilty of anyone in voting themselves budget-busting entitlement expansions.
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