confidentcrescent
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User ID: 423
confidentcrescent
19d ago
I don't believe these regulations will only apply to the very top multi-billion dollar companies. As far as I've seen nobody has proposed any specific rules yet so there's plenty of space to build an expensive system that everyone in the AI space needs to participate in.
At the very least I expect a regulatory system that applies to frontier AI would need to check models to determine whether they count as frontier AI before they release. Otherwise we'd just be taking the word of companies that their model is totally fine and too dumb to count.
confidentcrescent
20d ago
Big companies start off as small companies. Anti-competitive regulation rarely targets the hard-to-kill large companies and instead strangles the small companies to ensure there's nobody around to grow into a big company.
Frontier models also aren't their only competition. Anthropic and OpenAI have both shown a desire to raise prices which is going to make budget and self hosted models more appealing alternatives as they do. Adding large costs to everyone in the industry doesn't just put a big barrier to entry up but also brings budget options closer on price to the big players.
I went for a look at specific numbers from Anthropic and bills they support and found numbers like 500 million annual revenue or 10^25 FLOPs. That doesn't quite sound like a multi-billion dollar requirement but it would certainly require a substantial business.
While I'm not entirely convinced this isn't an anti-competitive tactic, it does at least look like the two areas I raised a concern about (self-hosting or fresh startups) would be exempt from this regulation unless compute availability dramatically improves in the near future.
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