curious_straight_ca
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User ID: 1845
Isn't anyone who follows through on this just feeding the monster? Poke the dog, dog fear-bites, that's your excuse to shoot the dog.
If a dozen innocent homeless people, including four blacks, were randomly shot by white people who espoused the above rhetoric, that'd push back the mood shift doglatine described above.
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
"Jogger" briefly became a meme! Just saying it feels cringe, but "both sides" love to claim that obviously the most recent CW incident fits neatly into my political claims and if you even doubted otherwise for a moment you're dumb / don't get it / are a useful idiot. But there's an awful lot of contingency and idiosyncratic attributes of individuals and situations that go into something like a homicide, that don't necessarily have anything to do with (black) or (racism). (And conversely, this means indexing too much on individual media incidents is a mistake, even if the last three big rape accusations were [true/false] it's still possible about half are [false/true]).
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
A lot of it is going to more quantity of more advanced healthcare. When someone spends a billion dollars developing a new drug or medical device, that money has to come from somewhere. And then when your uncle gets their advanced cancer treatments... And what else would the US do with our massive GDP and large number of old people? Old but good RCA post: http://web.archive.org/web/20230410210109/https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/why-conventional-wisdom-on-health-care-is-wrong-a-primer/
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Yeah. If the only cost one pays to drive is in travel time, and more people want to use the road at 0 congestion than can, congestion will be the 'price' that rises until the market clears. And if the supply curve is X people can use the road at 0 congestion, but X * 1.05 people can use the road at high congestion ... if the demand curve is in the wrong place, everyone can end up with high congestion. But this isn't a "distributive effect" as it'd be if it was a toll price extracting surplus value, because nobody's "getting" the lost time to congestion, it's just burned.
This is an especially bitter truth because the total throughput may be maximised at less than full capacity.
I'm not entirely sure what a 'full capacity but not max throughput' road looks like? (genuine question as opposed to rhetorical)
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Appreciate the contrary perspective! What are the fields/subfields of those social scientists you're familiar with, and what group differences do they think are innate?
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
We know Pacific Islanders tend towards obesity
I don't think this is genetic. (Or, if genes contribute, it's not genes for hunger or nutrient absorption, but intelligence/behavior related genes that combine with their modern economic environment).
And the market makes more money!
By market I meant "the supermarket", not a market in the economy sense, sorry
If your goal is to reduce congestion, which is typically a major stated goal of these projects, then yes, it's clearly a failure.
Well, that's the main stated goal because 'people who do not shop or live or work here, but will after we do ' isn't a particularly valuable constituency for local politics, whereas 'people who live here and want driving to be easier is'. But ... imagine we expand the highways, but we track everyone who uses the highway & their frequency of use in the preceding months, and ban anyone from using the highway more frequently than they did in the past. This would ensure congestion is relieved. But seems dumb, precisely because 'existing people driving a bit faster' seems worse than 'more people using the highway'?
The question is how this particular use of space, money, and time compares to alternatives
If all the transit-urbanism claims are true and that money should go into efficiently constructed subways instead, and if doing so would cause road use to be demanded so much less that current congestion dries up ... strong assumptions, but then yes, the current highway expansion would be pointless. But given that alternative isn't happening, and both lack of political will and existing dysfunction in construction in the US make it unlikely to happen soon. Whereas the highway expansion is happening. So outside of that, what better alternatives are there for that money, do you think?
you pat yourself on the back because, well, you fed some people, right?
It makes the question of 'should we stop handing out the truffle mushrooms'? And - if you're an individual who has that power, yes, you should simultaneously stop buying truffles and start buying rice. But given I don't have that power, I don't see how advocating against building the highway helps much - because if the highway stops, the existing (stronger) forces preventing better (i am assuming they are better for this discussion, haven't thought enough to be sure) forms of transit won't suddenly dissipate, we'll be arguably worse off, without expanded highways or better transit
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
I'm pretty sure they (descriptively) shamed public displays of sexuality much more, tbh. E.g. - wouldn't approve of even showing the 'bad shit' on screen in the ad.
Let's say we add the new lanes, and congestion stays the same, and travel times stay the same. Is this a failure?
Let's say you have a single supermarket in a town. It's too crowded, the lines are always long. A second supermarket opens in a town. There's enough demand that, now, both supermarkets are too crowded, and the lines are too long. Is this bad? No, it's strictly an improvement - more people are buying food now! And the supermarket makes more money!
The same is true of 'induced demand' - the goal of 'reduce congestion' wasn't accomplished, but a separate goal of 'more people getting to where they want to' was. The extra people who drive on the new highway are benefitting greatly from the change - they can now get to places they couldn't before!
No, it would be a net decrease, because the cost of doing so would be very high, and those resources could be more efficiently used elsewhere.
That's ... not a net decrease. That's a 'suboptimal policy'. It's only a net decrease if those resources would be used more efficiently elsewhere absent the highway. Which, I think you would agree when looking at the rest of the city budget, they're not likely to be any time soon.
It would suck for anyone who currently lives in the area and has to deal with additional car traffic
A net decrease would require comparing that 'dealing with additional traffic' to the new jobs or new activities the people the additional traffic brings, or the economic benefits from the businesses employing / serving the additional traffic. And ... I can't see how that comes out net negative. Having your property sized does suck, yeah, and I'm not sure how to factor that cost in - but that's basically a universal cost of development, so it doesn't obviously bring the total negative.
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
You'd have to cherrypick particularly cliche scenes that the image models will have an easy time with. But they're cliche precisely because real artists drew a ton of similar images and real people liked them, so it's not that big of a stretch
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
I suspect a half-decent prompt for an existing model could put out things indistinguishable to a nonprofessional eye from that
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
While I agree mostly ... are the top 20% of that page really any worse than 99.9% of popular existing art? Not Rembrandt, but twitter art posts with 50k likes, or reddit posts with 10k upvotes, or 'local artist' paintings people hang in their homes.
It'd also be very funny to do blind tests on various art fans to see if they can tell the difference between the best MJ outputs and real pieces they haven't seen yet in their favorite genre. I'm certain professionals could still tell, but could 'statue avis' or fans of real anime art?
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Why is 'incoherent bundle of glowy thing in a jar' so popular?
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
I tried feeding this question into three AI search services (metaphor, phind, and perplexity), and the third gave me https://breezewiki.com which at least claims to be what you want (i haven't tried it).
It was mention in the seventh google result, so it's not obvious the AI search services did anything beyond permuting google's results.
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
I also think you should post this in the main thread. I only partially with your argument, but it's high effort enough there'd be more discussion there
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Are you claiming the male-female spectrums overlap a lot more than others above claim (among the people you've spent a lot of time with)? Or are you genuinely claiming the distributions male and female behavior don't have any obvious or strong differences (again, among those people)?
Even among rationalists, there seem to be strong differences between the way men and women act. Do you not agree? (and the "blame the estrogen" seems to agree at least a bit).
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
If you have one or two types of socks, isn't not bundling better 'time management' than bundling? In the sense that you'll use less time total? A lot of standard routines are useful things that some people abandon for poor reasons, but some of it is just ... I do it because it's the right thing to do, which I know because other people would think poorly of me if I didn't do it, which they do because they know it's the right thing to do, which ...
Comparing these small-scale norms to those of historical cultures, or cultures of the less-westernized parts of the world, indicates how arbitrary a lot of it is.
Also, a young man, especially e.g. a college student, who organizes their clothing suboptimally probably isn't depressed/ADHD/spectrum.
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Your writing is quite good (the claims themselves less so). Why wouldn't the same intelligence that lets you do that apply to being 'social' as well? Both are about communicating with or having a certain impact on people.
That they can go years without making a blunder large enough to be put into words (at least, while sober), that every smile, every gesture, every laugh is as graceful, as effortless, and as beautiful as a concert pianist's music or a professional ballerina's grace
This is hilariously false. Where'd you get that impression? Small blunders happen pretty frequently. Large blunders still happen with some frequency. From the smallest things like 'you're talking to someone, intend to say one word but say another, and they get confused' to something like 'you suggest a restaurant / activity, everyone goes to it, turns out they all hate it' to ...
I'm still struggling to understand how you came to believe all of this. Could you narrate, like, a recent particular five to ten-minute period where all of your normal acquaintances were acting like impeccable socialites while you made a bunch of blunders? As that's apparently the normal state of your life?
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Finally, the whole theory of acausal trade is that you don't actually have to be in the same time or place as the thing you're trading with, you only need aligned values
I don't think you need aligned values? You only need to have some values at all, and the person you're trading with has some values, and you make a, uh, cross-universe pareto-optimal trade by simulating the other universes and the agents within them. And there aren't any self-reference issues here because both agents will just use the right decision theories!
it's certainly an idea
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Maybe a fairer comparison is having a team and playing a ranked RTS with them?
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
I tried to find a good article exploring the reasons/consequences of this but couldn't. Anyone have a link?
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
Look how common car accidents are, and how frequent deaths from car accidents were before safety was designed into both the roads and cars. The migrants might stop, but the people who live nearby wouldn't.
Also visa overstays
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
I agree. But I don't think our forebears understood their far-forebears' morality that much better than we ours when both deviated. And- I can be confident that tree gods do not literally, physically exist in the way some hunter gatherers claim they do, despite not fully understanding why they believed that, or what benefits they gained. I'd like to understand, and it'd be useful to, but there clearly is correctness.
curious_straight_ca
2yr ago
It wasn't him. But if it was, you could start some fun internet drama and get like 400 upvotes on sneerclub!
I think almost entirely genetic is overstated even for something like IQ. And - 'genetic' doesn't just mean 'inherited', it means 'anything from genes', including idiosyncratic non-additive genetic effects, and random effects from crossover during meiosis (random half of your mother and father's dna).
Also think that violent crime is much less genetic than IQ. I'm, like, 99% sure that, if you took existing black children with really bad genes, modified the genes for physical features to make them 'look white', and swapped them with white babies, the resulting children and adults wouldn't commit crime at anywhere the rate blacks do. Sure, lower-iq on average, maybe (but haven't seen any convincing arguments here) have different temperament, but 'black crime' is clearly propagated by cultural practices and institutions.
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