faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
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User ID: 884
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
8d ago
Yes, because the baseline for "randomly guessing" is 1/5612 ("twitter user @fluffyporcupine matches this specific one of the 5612 facebook users"), not 1/2 ("twitter user @fluffyporcupine is/is not the same user as facebook user Nancy Prickles").
Doesn't scare me for personal reasons -- I'm trivially identifiable, you don't need to resort to fancy ML techniques. But if you're actually trying to remain anonymous, and post under both your real name and a pseudonym, then perhaps it's worth paying attention to (e.g. spinning up separate throwaway accounts for anything you want to say that is likely to actually lead to significant damage to your real-world identity and doing the "translate to and from a foreign language to get changed phrasing without changed meaning" thing).
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
9d ago
Key search terms "stylometry" and "social media":
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
9d ago
$100k for the machinery seems plausible to me -- you can see details of their proposed setup here (relevant sections are "Carbon capture", "Electrolyzer", and "Chemical reactor", the rest of that post is fluff). "Low maintenance" remains to be seen, but there's no reason in principle that it couldn't be.
But again, the viability of the entire project rests on the idea that in some places the marginal cost of power will be close to zero or even negative a substantial fraction of the time, and yet those places are accessible enough to construct one of these plants. If that's not the way the future pans out, this project winds up not being so viable.
So the answer to
So how is this thing supposed to be competitive with natural gas in any reasonable place ?
Is "It's not. But not every place is reasonable".
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
12d ago
Why can't it be real? The Haber-Bosch process is at least as impactful of an "air + energy + water -> bulk useful material" process, and it's real and cost-effective.
Anyone who comes up with some process that
- Has low infrastructure costs
- Produces some industrially valuable product
- Spins up and down quickly, and tolerates long idle periods (i.e. starts producing the product as soon as you feed it power, stops when you stop feeding it power, and doesn't have issues if it doesn't start again for a long time)
has a license to print money when power costs dip to zero or below. Which they already do from time to time, and if solar power continues to be deployed more and more, that situation will happen more often.
Terraform's "power -> methane" thing certainly isn't efficient, compared to other forms of grid energy storage, but what it is is scalable. Basically it seems to be a bet on "power prices will be zero / negative some fraction of the time in some locations", which seems likely to happen if solar keeps being deployed at the current rate, or if any country anywhere in the world gets serious about fission power.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
12d ago
What is a hyperdunbarist? Googling the term literally shows only this comment.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
12d ago
Also useful if your car has bluetooth but it's janky.
I drove a corolla until it started giving me trouble (around 300,000 km), followed by a prius until that started giving me trouble (around 400,000 km), both were IMO quite good cars. I think you should be able to get a lightly used one that is <10 years old within your budget in Scotland, and that should have all the creature comforts you want.
That said, for bluetooth specifically, for $20, you can get a thing which plugs into the cigarette lighter of a car and does bluetooth pairing and then broadcasts to a radio frequency (choose a dead channel), which you can then tune your car radio to. In my experience they work well enough that you never think about them once you've done the initial 2 minutes of setup - your phone just automatically pairs when you get in the car, and the car speakers play what your phone is playing.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
12d ago
I think the guideline should be "the topic keeps coming up over and over again in the threads for separate weeks, and the conversation in the new week tends to reference the conversation in older weeks". Covid, when it was a thing, absolutely qualified as that. Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Palestine were somewhat less of this, since each week's thread tended to be about current events more than about continuing to hash out an ongoing disagreement. Trans stuff, I think, qualifies for this, as it does seem to be the same people having the same discussion over and over. Can't think of too many other examples.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
12d ago
Don't pin it and I think it's fine. The people who want to have that discussion can subscribe to the thread. A second such containment thread for rationalist inner-circle social drama would also be nice. Maybe a third for trans stuff.
I think "topics that tend to suck all the air out of the room when they get brought up go to their own containment thread, anyone who cares to discuss that topic can subscribe to the thread, containment threads only get pinned if there's at least a quarter as much past-activity in them as in the typical CW thread" would probably be an improvement.
TBH if someone is put off by the fact that holocaust denial stuff gets put in a dedicated thread rather than banned I think they would probably be put off by the speech norms here anyway, best that they discover that early. I personally find the discussion tiresome and poorly argued, but I don't think there's a low-time-investment way to moderate on that basis, at least not yet. Maybe check back in 3 years and LLMs will be at that point, but for the time being.
All that said, I am not a mod, nor am I volunteering to spend the amount of time it would take to be a mod, so ultimately the decision should be made by the people who are putting in that time and effort.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
13d ago
The topic of this thread isn't "the evidence we have about the history of World War II", it's "internal discussion and navel gazing about what norms we want to have in this community", which is a topic of endless interest on this site. A similar thing happens on any thread that mentions Aella.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
13d ago
The constant debates between the Napoleon deniers and their opponents are sucking all the air out of the room. What do you do?
Containment thread? It worked pretty well for covid, when covid stuff was sucking all the air out of the room.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
13d ago
I challenge the premise "somewhat optimized", we are currently living in dysgenic age.
The optimization happened in the ancestral environment, not the last couple hundred years. Current environment is probably mildly dysgenic but the effect is going to be tiny because the current environment just hasn't been around for very long.
Alternatively, we could just skip detection on which alleles have low IQ and just eliminate very rare alleles, which are much more likely to be deleterious (e.g. replace allele with frequency below given threshold with its most similar allele with frequency above threshold) without studying any IQ.
I expect this would help a bit, just would be surprised if the effect size was actually anywhere near +1SD.
In your hypothetical bet, how would result "IQ as intended, but baby brain too large for pregnancy to be delivered naturally" count?
If the baby is healthy otherwise, that counts just fine.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
13d ago
Congratulations!
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
13d ago
In terms of why I'm not so active it's mostly the "had a kid 2 months ago" thing, not anything to do with Motte quality.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
25d ago
This line of argument reminds me of the "to get people to ride public transit, you don’t have to fix the issues with public transit, you just have to make the experience of traveling by car much much worse" argument I see sometimes.
Such as the famously-modern program
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