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felipec

unbelief

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joined 2022 November 04 19:55:17 UTC

Freedom of speech maximalist who is anti-woke, anti-orthodoxy, anti-establishment, and anti-capitalist.

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User ID: 1796

felipec

unbelief

1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2022 November 04 19:55:17 UTC

					

Freedom of speech maximalist who is anti-woke, anti-orthodoxy, anti-establishment, and anti-capitalist.


					

User ID: 1796

Verified Email

Does anyone else feel like we're heading for a good old-fashioned, 2008-tier, financial crash?

We've been heading towards a crash since 2008 because we never really got over it. We've been kicking the can down the road just delaying the inevitable.

I recall people bringing up the possibility ever since Covid bucks started rolling out, but even though we were due for one, and even though the money printer was going brrrrr, the crash has so far failed to materialize.

It didn't materialize because policymakers did everything in their power to delay it, but it's just a bet against the future. It's like saying John managed to avoid bankruptcy by getting another credit card. No, he is still bankrupt, it's just not official yet.

On the other hand, the problem for me was it never felt like a boom, and I think this is changing now.

There was most definitely a boom since the 90s up until 2008. It was palpable.

To fellow blackpillers: any ideas on how to brace for impact? Any IT guys here old enough to make it through the dotcom bubble? How did you do it? Any advice you would have given your past self?

I'm an old IT guy that went through the dotcom bubble. I never really bought into it. It was obvious to me that no revenue means no revenue. The difference now is that somehow people know it's a bubble, but there's money to be made if you guess correctly when it's going to pop.

I'm not interested in that kind of speculation.


Either way, I'm beyond blackpilled. I don't think the inevitable upcoming crash is going to be "good old-fashioned 2008-tier", I don't even think The Great Depression would make it justice. I think this is going to be the mother of all crashes and the entire capitalistic system is going to collapse. The younger adult generation is already antagonistic towards capitalism, they see they can't afford a house, while BlackRock owns obscene amounts of real estate. When the system collapses capitalists will have no leg to stand on, arguably they already don't.

But ultimately I see it as a good thing. There's only so much time you can pretend the emperor has no clothes. At some point civilization has to face reality, and that point is coming... fast.

(2) At one point a whiteboard displays the "top 10" most famous equations including Black Scholes...none of which would be relevant to alien first contact.

There's a relationship between Black Scholes and what ergodicity economics calls the "equation of life". There are surprising relationships between seemingly unrelated fields, such as probability theory, finance, physics, and socioeconomic systems. So I don't think we can necessarily assume what extraterrestrials would find relevant.