fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
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User ID: 3415
It's so much worse than that.
I was just reading an interview with a Ukrainian medic and they air drop anti-personnel mines with drones. Not only do you need to watch the sky, you need to watch your step because there might be a butterfly mine there today that wasn't there yesterday.
It goes on and on
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
Yeah I guess my thinking was if below average men in the looks/earnings/status department can get laid regularly, anyone can
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
That's a fair point
I guess my thinking was if they can do it, anyone can. But thinking about it more today, one dude is extremely forward and the other is nominally shy/introverted but he does play the numbers game.
I guess for the "shy" one, I'm still suprised he pulls as much as he does (given internet discourse) as he uses tinder, etc and isn't that hot. So the narrative "tinder only works for the hottest men" falls apart a bit.
Also both of them are more than happy to date women that aren't perfect (one literally dated a stripper). So they're also realistic about standards.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
No offense taken! I post here because I find the people (generally) smart and insightful. Exposing my ideas/thoughts/beliefs to the gang means I get challenged, and I learn something about their beliefs, or mine. It would be silly to expose them to public scrutiny and then get mad!
I do feel slightly misunderstood, although maybe I instead misunderstand you.
I am not putting off having kids because I love slamming craft beers with the boys. I am putting off having kids because housing is expensive (and other reasons, elaborated earlier).
You're right, capital cities are expensive. It honestly feels kind of like a lose/lose trap. If I live and work in the periphery, I risk not earning enough money to escape renting, especially with the rate of growth of housing costs (I have 0 faith this issue will be satisfactorily resolved in my lifetime, the political situation around it is too broken).
If I live in the city, I make more, but everything is more expensive. If I live in the periphery and work in the city, I can have cheaper CoL with higher salary, but an absurd amount of my waking hours are now spent driving or on a train.
I also do have a preference (hah) for growing up in the city. I really liked being raised in Toronto. I would love to give this experience to my kid. Maybe this is an unreasonable or unrealistic want.
Thankfully, I'm also getting far enough in my career that I could sometime in the nearish future make a lateral move to a smaller city and be some flavor of finance manager and make "can afford a house" money. But for entry level jobs, you're looking at a ~20k haircut on your starting salary if you're not in the big city.
Grinding finance in Toronto has always felt like the best option in a sea of shitty options. Plus from a personal level I derive a lot of enjoyment from living here (not just the craft beers, but also the vast majority of the people I know and love live here).
Tbh, I'd say that you're stuck in a local maximum that is pleasant and fun right now but will lead to you being dissatisfied in the long-term, and you even recognise that fact
This is very true
but you don't leave bc you aren't willing to suffer a little in the valley on the way towards a better maximum.
This I'm less convinced by, most alternatives right now don't feel like there's a better maximum at the end of them. Although I'm obviously not omnipotent.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
But what I'm saying is that my friends really aren't too 5% Giga-chads and those last two example friends are extremely not that.
So if I know lots of non-alphas who are fucking, what's up?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
He absolutely could. They could also just actually make people use e-verify, which already works and exists
I don't like POSIWID but in this case... They could solve it and they don't, it's because they don't want to
fmac
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3mo ago
I've been missing out on race war comment chains? Sad
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
I’ve never seen an “average” man have issues with dating
This has always been amusing to me. Online discourse is profoundly rife with "alpha fux, beta bucks" and "no man can get dates finder is a hellhole" but all my male friends seem to have as much sex and dates as they want.
Admittedly, my social sphere leans towards white collar yuppies downtown, so there's lots of fish and no one is answering "flip burgers" to the "what do you do" question.
But even my childhood friends, who are not yuppies, still pull?
One guy works like 2 days a week (smokes weed the other 5) and lives in a shitty apartment but always has a new girl, and they're bartenders/bottle girls/etc (one time a stripper lmao) so they're attractive, if messy.
Another is decidedly not conventionally attractive, works a non status job, and churns first dates enough he had to stop posting Instagram stories of sunsets because he was getting worried someone would notice (it's his first date move).
Im not sure how to reconcile these two realities.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
I do actually hope to double my salary in the next ~5 years. I'm currently in PE-adjacent consulting and plan to move into actual PE once I get bored where I am.
Even without a doubling, I'm pretty confident we'll be able to buy in Toronto in the next 5-8 years, I mean hell, prices are so good right now we've been debating going all-in and being house-poor. It seems quite miserable though, I have worked extremely hard to not be paycheck to paycheck, so going back to that level of penny-pinching... Ugh
You make a fair point, I'm sure the O&G gang need people to do modelling, etc. I was interviewing at a mining company way back when and they were just so boring and dry. Maybe O&G attracts more charismatic people.
I know I know, Toronto governance is absurdly bad. I think what differentiates it is that Toronto is run poorly because no one does anything, Danielle Smith and her merry gang seem to be actively trying to break everything. Which feels worse I guess?
It's not so much "city fun kid boring", I fucking loved growing up in Toronto. I want my kid to experience that. And Toronto is so much better now than when I was a kid.
The Toronto escape plan is probably Hamilton, which I actually think is super under-rated. Although with Metrolinx shitting the bed on electrification that plan just got less attractive.
Sorry I was being snarky, I actually quite like what you wrote and I agree with it.
I just keep seeing the same "democracy doesn't work because voters are dumb and unbridled capitalism has hollowed out the country. Therefore we need a strong and decisive government to use industrial policy to bring the heavy industry back!" train of thought and it's pretty adjacent to many of the thoughts you expressed there
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
I viscerally hate "/s" but it does lead to these situations
That's a great question, I kind of assumed "no" but truthfully, I've never asked.
I'm sure it has been studied already, but there is an interesting young adult arrested development phenomenon going on for white collar yuppies. We're all pushing 30, but our lifestyles would be 100% recognizable to our 24 year old (or functionally, our 20 year old) selves.
I've even been hanging out with a social group in their early 30s through sports, and aside from slightly higher rates of marriage and condo ownership, basically everyone does the "white collar job, black out fri/sat, Pilates and brunch on Sunday".
So it doesn't feel like anyone would want a kid near them, but I can't say I've ever asked.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
very easy to do if you've conquered them and can walk right up
Taking a stroll on the moon is quite easy, if you've successfully travelled there by rocket. You just skipped the hard part.
Successfully invading Iran would be an insane clusterfuck, and would be the biggest Chinese strategic victory this side of the 1940s (followed shortly by a bigger one, conquering Taiwan).
I actually would have said it would be impossible to invade Iran period a week ago. but they've folded so hard I'll downgrade to "unbelievably expensive and profoundly wasteful".
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
I'm not a fan of rent control, and I fully understand and agree how shitty of a policy it is.
I vote for the most economically literate politicians in every election (which is about as effective as spoiling my ballot, which I have also done). So I've done my part.
However, the clusterfuck that is housing policy carries on with or without me, so you fucking bet I am going to work what I can to my advantage.
Also, I find anti-rent control people (read: the entirety of /r/neoliberal) somewhat obnoxious in their "just get rid of rent control bro it's that easy it'll fix the market" prescription. They are right, in a vacuum. However, when NIMBYs get to block everything forever for any reason, getting rid of rent control is marginal at best.
4plex houses are being denied in Toronto neighborhoods because they "change neighborhood character" despite them being literally the most gentle form of density possible. They're also legal "as of right" but it turns out that was a total bait and switch because other zoning laws prevent them despite being "as right". Less than 400 4plex homes have been approved in 2 years, so it's safe to say this was an absolute fucking scam of a policy "win".
If any politician ran on a platform of "I'll get rid of rent control, making zoning identical to Japan, and cut development charges dramatically" I'd be out there knocking on doors for them every day, and I'd probably suck their dick too.
Unfortunately, the median voter is fucking retarded and this is an "instant lose" platform. So I'll keep abusing rent control until a better option presents itself.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
The problem is that this would actually fix the problem, which no one in power actually wants to do
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Democracy simply does not work.
Rightward leaning folks essentially re-inventing the Chinese government is potentially one of my favorite things about the mid 2020s.
I just listened to an interview with Oren Cass and you change about 10 words and this dude would have made Daddy Xi proud.
Can't wait for "the shining city on the hill with Chinese characteristics"
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
So far we've been beating CoL inflation, so the trend lines look good (even modelling the inevitable slowdown in wage growth with age). It just takes time, which biology doesn't seem to have gotten the memo about.
I haven't done the math, but I also wonder how well this actually plays on net. The best and highest paying jobs are in Toronto. If I move to Calgary and my wages and CoL both decrease (or stagnate), am I ahead? Especially because I can always sell a Toronto home and move to Calgary later, but the reverse doesn't work (assuming Toronto house price growth continues to outpace Calgary).
Also, thanks to my parents I am an east-coast latte-sipping downtown elitist lib-pilled yuppie (see my flair). So moving to Calgary (and Alberta generally, although I liked Austin so if Calgary was cool I'd deal with the awful governance) is not a very appealing option. Soy-jacking aside, I love the vibe of big cities, and the absurd fun and convenience they provide.
Finally, all my friends and family are in Southern Ontario. Most of my friends live a 15 minute walk/5 minute bike from my apartment. If we moved 3000km to have a kid, we'd be completely isolated from everyone we know (which isn't a permanent issue, as you make new friends, but damn...).
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
For me, the pleasure of the sex seems dependent on if I can bench press her or not.
Why? What about bench press-less sex doesn't do it?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
This was really beautiful, and actually inadvertently addressed something I was writing in a different comment to you (started on my computer, left the apartment, will finish later).
Great stuff! Now to find something to have faith in...
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
what do you think the point of life is? Or, if it hasn't one, what do you think is worth doing while alive, and why?
I'm not sure. I think I've been having a gentle ~third life crisis about this for the last year or two.
I think the "point" of life is to procreate at a base level. Because life seems to be a self-replicating collection of molecules that enjoy being alive, and replicating ensures this process continues. However, procreating is hard these days, and so is a while away yet.
I'm going to think on this more and maybe my answer will change after a few hours of writing, but my initial gut response is that aside from procreation, life is about maximizing your subjective sense of pleasant/enjoyable experiences, and minimizing the bad ones. The logical endpoint of this is wire heading however, which I don't like and is not inspiring at all. You should also seek to increase other's enjoyment of life, and not make their lives worse, this is slightly more inspiring.
I like how you anchored it in actions (and their "why") though, that I will need to think more on.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
until you find something larger than your own ego and physical pleasure to live for.
Curious what your answer to this is. I realize I've basically asked you "what is the meaning of life", but I like your writing and so assume I will like your thoughts on the matter.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
I am decidedly atheistic, although I do sometimes wonder if it's worth it to try to psy-op myself into a belief system. Not sure if I could though.
When I was younger, I thought Western societies abandonment of religion in favor of enlightenment/science/whatever was the natural progress of civilization, and an amazing thing. Now I think we've made a horrible mistake, but I don't think we can really go back.
Whoops!
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
Deeply in this boat and curious how they respond. Having kids is probably the single best way to add purpose to your life, but this gets circular very very fast.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3mo ago
LOL
Honestly I'm mostly here for the free one-way therapy venting dump
The fact you read it at all is gratifying, have a lovely day!
Also my Family Doctor basically said what you said to me verbatim the other day lmao. While he wasn't wrong, the fact he's a millionaire with an S-class who's last exposure to housing costs was the 1970s made it land somewhat poorly.
No, strategic bombing has a mediocre track record and in most of those cases it was accompanied by full scale land invasions. Strategic bombing alone just makes the bombee really really mad at you. Israel is knocking the Iranians a few years back along the nuclear "tech tree". Regime change is a stupid goal if that's their goal, but who knows (they'd need a strong rebel group to arm at the very least).
I actually wonder if I'd rather be in a WW1 trench or Ukranian one. It's insane it's even a question. I think you have to pick Ukranian ultimately because of the advances in medical technology. But the technology isn't worth shit if you get droned while evac-ing, which is all too common...
Fiber optic FPVs have high quality and don't have LOS signal issues which means skilled operators can fly them into buildings and around inside them. This means they can even navigate them around say, the tarp you hung up on the front of the dugout, which used to do a pretty good job of stopping FPVs.
Getting hunted by robots is a nightmare, and they're only getting better and more capable.
Each war is different. USA v China would be all air and sea assets. We will probably see almost no footage aside from explosions in or around cities very occasionally.
Iran/Israel can't invade each other so all they can do is lob things back and forth. Note that Israel has a ton of air assets all over Iran though, it's not just missile bases firing at each other. USA/China also cant invade each other, so it would be a similar situation of plinking at each other. Although unlike Iran/Israel, there is actually ownership of Pacific islands (incl but not limited to Taiwan) who would change ownership depending on outcome.
Ukraine/Russia is what not winning the air looks like for sure. Although caveat that with the fact they're post-soviet armies with absolutely awful generals (and politicians making bad military choices) at the strategic levels so this was is significantly more sloppy and gruesome than if France and Germany suddenly decided to run it back for old times' sake.
Land: Defence is so strong right now with drone-spam. The effectiveness/cost of Class 1/2 drones vs their countermeasures is really hard to predict (lasers, AI targeting, cost of everything, reusable interceptors) and shapes land battles heavily so hard to say.
Right now class 1 and 2 drones are cheaper to make than to stop, so defence is really strong at the moment. The longer your attack takes and the further into my lines you get, the more drones I can vector onto your attacking troops. And it's hard to suppress my drones (unless you have air superiority).
Sea: I assume drone boats are the future. Carriers always/forever useful, but their fragility depends on the missile vs countermeasure balance, which we can't predict.
I think the meta stays the same, survivability onion doesn't change. Find the enemy and blow them up from far away.
AI allows you to spread out more and extend the reach of your eyes and weapons. So more smaller drone ships. Stealth and Zumwalt shaped, maybe semi submersible. Don't know enough about submarines but presumably similar.
Air: similar to sea. 6th gen fighters are shaping up to be bigger, for longer range and bigger/more ordinance. Also bigger engine = more electricity = more compute, if your 6th gen isn't also a drone C&C it's already obsolete. It'll be handfuls of 6th gen fighters commanding swarms of class 2 and 3 drones (which in turn, may deploy class 1 drones? Yikes). They'll have radar, missiles so the 6th gen doesn't need to give itself away doing these things.
Closing thoughts on USA vs China: it's the USA's game to lose. They're still ahead but the trend lines SUCK, and nothing about the current state of US governance indicates that's going to change dramatically. They shouldn't bail on the first island chain yet, but as someone who enjoys Pax Americana, I'm not feeling optimistic for my team's odds in 10 years. China can project force in its backyard even if it's never the #1 big dog.
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