fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
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User ID: 3415
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
The fact that the federal government invented e-verify and then doesn't make anyone use it is such blatant evidence they don't actually want to fix this.
They literally invented a perfect solution but won't use it...
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
I guess if none of my negative examples are good enough, do you have any positive ones? Because you're right, LA is an example of a car-centric city, which did it's best to orient cars and yet driving there sucks.
I guess you're saying they specifically did a bad job and that's why their traffic sucks. I'm saying at a certain population size (depending on geography, alternatives, etc) it's not possible to do it well period. Because at a certain point the people of the city/society stop letting you flatten neighborhoods for more highways, and then your road capacity gets fixed and fills up and bam here we are.
Are there any large cities that were able to scale car use into the mid-millions well?
Because like I said, even the sunbelt cities who are in their growth golden area are seeing 5-8% YoY growth in travel times/delays/etc. So they're well on their way to being just like LA!
Also thanks for the point about low road per capita in LA, I didn't know that and this is an interesting sub topic to research.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
Distorting the market in favor of “necessary” goods usually ends up with those goods costing just as much, other goods costing more, and inequality rising.
Fully agreed.
I think my gut feeling is that this distorts the market in favor of homeowners, although I really need to sit down with some paper and excel and model this to be confident in my assertions (hence why I am bugging you, as you seem quite knowledgeable on the topic).
I'm also deeply supply pilled on housing, so exempting landlords from taxes on rentals doesn't sound like the worst idea right now (although gutting zoning garbage would be much more effective).
I guess my question(s) to you are:
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am I off base for assuming/feeling like this tax policy will make people tilt even harder towards ownership vs rental
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maybe this is the same question phrased differently but how is this not a huge imputed benefit for home owners? We already give them SO many (tax free appreciation, the fact you get so much leverage at all, frequently able to gain tax benefits from mortgage interest or Smith maneuver HELOCs, tax breaks/credits for Hosie upgrades that improve quality of life subsidized by taxpayers) and now on top of that there is a consumption tax on rent.
I also again want thank you for introducing this idea to me. I've actually been thinking a lot about tax policy recently (lmao) and I'd recommend taking a look at the Mirrlees report if this is a subject of interest to you, it was cool.
Personally, I was thinking of a tax regime along the lines of:
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Land value tax (maybe not 100% Georgist, as I think there are some economically optimal but societally sub optimal outcomes in extremely expensive downtown cores)
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0% corporate tax
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Aggressive marginal income taxes with brackets wayyyyy up into the millions.
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Elimination of tax deferral/planning at a HoldCo level with extremely punitive (in Canada, referred to as "Part IV taxes") measures to ensure that all cash not reinvested into businesses is taxed immediately. Galen Weston, a Canadian billionaire, has a private HoldCo that receives more than $100mil in dividends each year from his public operating companies. I want that $100mil either poured back into his operating companies at their level as tangible investments in the company, or taxed at his personal income tax rate before he gets to invest it in whatever else he feels like.
The two outstanding parts to this "model" are:
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I need to make sure "Part IV on steroids" doesn't break LP/GP structures and other such things. I am not trying to cripple the finance industry, just ensure everyone pays their fair share and money gets put to the highest and best use.
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I wasn't sure how to deal with sales taxes. I generally view them as regressive and kind of silly, and a burden on everyone to file for, etc. seemed "cleaner" to just boil it all down to income tax and then ensure everyone's income was fully reported.
However, FairTax might be converting me. It is actually even cleaner to just delete everything and instead just do sales tax. It's an interesting proposal.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
That's kind of my point though.
Even major cities which have tried to prioritize driving as the primary transport modality fail, because it doesn't scale.
I'm sure 50 years ago the LA road per capita stat was way better. And then LA's population continued to rise, and amount of roads stayed fixed.
The sunbelt cities are earlier in this life cycle. Their populations are lower and they're not so sprawled you can't drive across them. But they'll keep growing, eventually more up then out, and traffic will continue to get worse and worse, which we already see.
Yeah great plan, let's see how that's working in cities which have leaned that way like LA.... Oh wow no way, it's one of the most congested places on the continent? That's crazy! Who could ever have predicted that...
Maybe Dallas and Houston? They're doing better than LA, but no suprise their traffic congestion stats get worse every year. It's almost like this doesn't work at scale.
Putting aside the fact that cities that are 50% parking area absolutely suck.
The problem there is too many people in too little space
At this point it's all just preferences though. I believe what you say, it is a calmer existence in a less dense north american city. I also find it a soulless hellscape of awful design that I want to get away from immediately, whereas one of my favorite activities is wandering around Toronto with my dog (no destination, just vibes).
Edit: I should add, I have no problems with less dense cities, and think they should be free to shape their built form however they please, which they do. I dislike this form, so I don't go (which is fine). But then dense cities don't get this benefit, and have to cater to everyone's tastes, which results in really mediocre outcomes. If one doesn't like bike lanes, one should move somewhere that doesn't have or need them, instead of fighting to make everything worse for everyone, including themselves.
The issue is that people who have (valid) preferences for living in less dense cities then try to take their preferences and impose them on dense cities (also funny how the suburban preference people still love coming downtown, but the downtown people don't want to go hang out in the suburbs, I wonder why), and everyone loses because it fundamentally doesn't work because of spacial limitations and a refusal to change anything, ever.
Build bike lanes for more efficient transportation? No! Can't take space from cars?
Build LRTs or dedicated bus lanes? NO! can't take space from cars.
Build subways? Okay but only one as they are expensive.
WHY IS TRAFFIC SO BAD? WHO COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS WOULD HAPPEN?!?!?!?
I'll also offer some hope re: cycling. I bike most months of the year, basically only Dec/Jan are when my ability to bike is seriously constrained. Snow plowing infrastructure has improved a lot, and we have sidewalk plows now that do bike lanes, so they're quite clear. Also climate change means even Toronto winters are very mild. Feels like we get more rain than snow in winter now, and days under -10 are so rare vs my childhood.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
Driving's just a lot better than cycling for most things
Fully agree, that's why I own a car. I am typing this from the waiting room at the dealership as they replace my underside cover.
There is one thing that driving profoundly fails at though, both on its own and really really badly once you compare to cycling.
Scale.
The road capacity of downtown cores is fixed. The population, as more and more towers get built, is not.
Each human wants to go places, if they all pick "car", eventually it all stops working. Nothing can fix this aside from having people go places not in a car.
Coincidentally, bikes are ridiculously better than cars downtown as they are much faster.
From my apartment to the dealership is 19 minutes right now by car or bike. This afternoon rush hour, it'll be over 30 minutes by car, and still 19 minutes by bike.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
I agree with you there. The rules of the road are not enforced enough for anyone. Cars and bike drivers both need to shape up, or be made to.
I do agree, bikes, due to their flexibility and relative lack of danger posed to others, do dumb shit. Like I said, I am in favor of much more enforcement.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
Lets you think and go on autopilot, making up for lost speed.
You might be on to something here. We should replace all trans-atlantic flights with ships again. It's so simple, the passengers can just think and that will pass the additional time, they won't even notice!
Walking to my office is a 1hr 25 min walk, or 28 minute bike. I would vastly prefer to not wake up a full hour earlier, and no amount of extra "thinking" time will make up for that...
Syncs with other forms of transport well, no restrictions on taking a non-existent bike with you.
Solved by bike rental/bike share programs in most major cities.
Can easily head into a shop without having to tie up a bike.
This is significantly easier and faster (or equivalent, if there is ample parking) than parking a car. This takes 30 seconds? How is this a barrier?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
"we designed a huge majority of the land use of the built environment for only one modality of transportation, and now that modality is the dominant form. Checkmate atheists"
You're not exactly working with a control group here...
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
Today there are people who ride bikes as back then but the public discussion is dominated by a new group who are Cyclists. Ie. people who make cycling a replacement for a car and a core part of their identity.
What a lovely strawman.
In my major North American city, basically every pro cycling person I see and hear has opinions like "my building has 0.3 parking spots per person, and I want to get to work faster than walking/transit" or "I like biking to my soccer league but the current layout of roads makes me fear for my life"
The vast majority of cyclists I see passing by my apartment window are on city rental bikes, which are 30 minute time limit (you only use for A>B, not recreation) and are super heavy so you can't go fast.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
Nature paths don't have store entrances all along them for people to veer into or randomly pop out of.
Also frequently they are much wider than sidewalks.
They also don't have anywhere near the clutter (sandwich boards, planter boxes, utility poles) that sidewalks do. They also don't have as much pedestrian density (usually) as sidewalks.
what is the difference between a bike lane on a road and a bike lane on a sidewalk that was expanded onto the road?
I think you prefer the sidewalk bike lane as there is grade separation. It's possible to make nicely separated bike lanes in roads too. Not all bike lanes are painted lines, American cities just don't build nice ones.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
Have you seen a sidewalk?
This is such a bad idea. Sidewalks are full of stuff like signs, trees, children, dogs, people moving in any direction at any time because inertia isn't a thing when you're walking.
The only sidewalks it's possible to bike on functionally would be completely empty ones near strip malls or residential neighborhoods in suburbia, at which point, sure, bikes can go crazy on those. But the second there's more than a handful of people per block this gets incredibly stupid.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
Interesting.
The rental price drop makes sense, although seems a bit handwavey. Although rental prices are set by the market (supply/demand) anyway so I'd imagine they'd have a hard time arbitrarily going up.
The DVD analogy really bugs me though, I need to think about why.
Partially it's because DVDs are a luxury item consumed for enjoyment and places to live are a hard requirement for life to not suck. I don't understand why renters aren't entitled to any "philosophical rewards" despite also being humans who need to live somewhere, who have any number of reasons to not want to buy a home (either voluntary, or involuntary). That part doesn't sound very fair.
There's also the fact that renter FairTax paid >>> homeowner FairTax paid over basically any period. Again, seems quite unfair, although I'll need to think on this more. I don't remember how deadweight losses imposed by taxes work but I'm curious how that plays in this specific scenario.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
"I hate when cyclists break the law, it's so bad!!!!! Cars breaking the law is fine though because that's normal"
Bravo sir, excellent argument.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
What about cutting me off on a highway?
I also meant cars not taking turns at stop signs, resulting in multiple cars entering the intersection simultaneously because people refuse to wait their turn or were not paying attention to who's turn it was.
Finally, the whole point of my comment was to point out that just listing your personal anecdotes about something as if they are demonstrable facts and not pure undiluted confirmation bias is silly and anyone can do it, hence why I started doing it too.
You need an argument stronger than "sometimes I see things that make me unhappy"
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
I see catastrophically bad drivers every time I drive. Running stale yellows, not understanding how stop signs work, literally every single highway merge at 70% the speed of highway traffic, a nice no signal jersey slide right in front of me, driving recklessly quickly through residential neighborhoods
Aren't personal anecdotes fun?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
thousands of jobs that are about to be lost soon
Why are you sad about jobs created by a bubble being lost by the bubble popping? Isn't that just a return to the status quo?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
In the first place, it is not obvious to me how implementing "fiscal responsibility" measures actually results in the country being better-off in any meaningful sense.
Because lots of government debt is bad, so less debt is good
What can be implemented by one government can be overridden by the next government.
Yes but the logical conclusion to this train of thought is that government should never do anything, lest it gets undone in a few years. That sounds like a fucking awful society.
Why invest in defense to preserve sovereignty if the Democrats will just cut it later? Why improve the medical system if the Republicans will rip it up later? Why build this bridge to facilitate commerce if the $OTHER_TEAM might tear it down later?
In the second place, it does not seem prudent to maintain a commons that others have no interest in maintaining and benefit greatly from depleting.
This is true but again if this stance was held at all levels of power you're basically just advocating for anarchy? Why collect garbage and take it to a landfill if other people don't bother to dispose of their garbage properly? Because "most garbage goes to the landfill" is infinitely better than "no garbage goes to the landfill"
In the third place, "my country" is a phrase, not a reality. We are well into the "voting on our rights" stage of the split. Large portions of the country are places I will not willingly visit, much less consider moving to. Increased state capacity is not a benefit to me if I believe that state capacity will be used to violate my rights as a human.
Western nations have gotten pretty cooked, but seriously man you should consider therapy or something because your outlook is profoundly nihilistic, pessimistic, and defeatist. It's making me sad to think about how you think about the world.
Also again, if your beliefs were scaled I'm pretty sure it would immediately lead to anarchy.
How does balancing the budget improve the country's long-term well-being, in concrete terms?
Because perpetual defecits that exceed GDP growth eventually lead to massive inflation, economic collapse, or both? This is bad.
Why is securing this long-term well-being solely the responsibility of the Republican party?
It's not, but I think the defecits feel worse coming from them, hence the focus. They did love going absolutely ape shit over any/all democrat spending during the 2000s/2010s, so it feels hypocritical.
It seems my position has more of a connection to bedrock reality.
Kind of? You're incredibly negative and myopic though, which is a lens you are viewing reality through.
You are appealing to ideals. What evidence do you have that these ideals are workable, and that pursuit of them is likely to lead to an improvement of our actual situation?
That's a good question, but I think you should ask it of yourself. If your ideals were implemented at a government scale, would that make the situation better?
Do you think implementing Fiscal Responsibility will improve Republicans' electoral chances?
Unfortunately not really, I'm honestly kind of worried about our societies inability to deal with anything, but if we give up then we go from "maybe fucked" to "definitely fucked" and I don't see that as an improvement.
Do you think Democrats, having won the subsequent elections, will scrupulously maintain those measures?
Unfortunately not really
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
I think this is a really cool idea, and I appreciate being introduced to it. Thank you.
How on earth does it work with buying a house vs renting?
If I buy a house for $100,000 and then sell it for $150,000, is the new buyer taxed on the incremental $50,000? How does that change if that $50k comes from land appreciation vs renovation? What about if you sell a house at a loss?
Does this play as an absurd penalty to rent vs buy? Does renting get 30% more expensive while purchasing used housing stock stays the same price?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
but you can tweak the ages of eligibility and uncap the payroll tax and you have pretty much fixed it.
Like yes, but actually no. Just because the government could raise the age of social security doesn't mean they will. In fact, I am deeply and profoundly confident they never will, unless the country is in active meltdown.
I cannot imagine a better way to get BTFO in a western election.
Although France did it, and it's not repealed yet, so maybe it's possible.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
You have family Civ V games?!?!? Now that is goals... Well done
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4mo ago
I'm a big fan of /r/CredibleDefense , although engagement and post quality have both been on a gentle downward trend over the last year or so
The Austrian military ("Österreichs Bundesheer" on YouTube) also puts up good presentations on Ukraine semi-regularly
Perun and Mike Koffman both good, especially for Ukraine
Admittedly, I don't follow Gaza much
Thanks for sharing that snippet. I did not realize Warhammer books were packing heat.
Curious why you shared it though, maybe I need a coffee but I'm not getting the connection.
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