fmac
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User ID: 3415
fmac
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1mo ago
Yeah the Israeli government is acting to its incentives, I get that. Every action has tradeoffs and consequences. This is the action-set that the Israeli people (and by extension their government) have chosen. I don't envy their choice, it's a nightmare.
But the consequences of their choices is permanent conflict around them, and a world (which to an extent they depend on) that is steadily losing sympathy for their plight.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. This conflict is so fucking long and there's so much bad blood, I don't ever see it ending unless someone rips the band-aid off and ends it with a final... solution? But that won't happen so instead it'll just limp along. At this point the Israeli's and the Palestinian's deserve each other.
fmac
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1mo ago
I'm not saying Iran isn't an idiot for being in this situation. Their hostility to Israel is a massive, profound, and decades long unforced error. Although hard to blame them about being mad about the Shah. But we've done worse to countries and now we're chill (Vietnam, Germany, Japan) so if they'd suck it up they'd be better off.
I'm talking about the situation at hand though. Iran and Israel have beef, is it stupid? Yes. But it is real, and Iran getting nukes is bad. And clapping on Iran makes them want nukes more, I think that's also bad.
fmac
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1mo ago
What is an example of a piece of history of the conflict that you think would change people's minds if they were aware of it?
This is what gets me. At a certain point once the conflict spans generations and over 100+ years, "who started it" is the most useless question/discussion topic.
Every time someone tries to dunk with "well X did Y so the current Z situation is their fault" it is just so laughable.
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1mo ago
But never their settlements in the West Bank, which do a lot of the heavy lifting in pissing people off.
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1mo ago
The Holocaust was obviously worse. It just contrasts extremely poorly when part of the founding mythos of the country is "we need a save haven for our people, who have suffered greatly" and then you look and Gazans are dying of malnutrition and preventable diseases purely because the Isreali's won't let food in.
History doesn't repeat, but it's definitely rhyming.
Random not very related thought, but the exact same logic applies more broadly to the hardcore lefty's, who are also the more irrational pro-palestinians. They all claim they hate the structures of power that perpetuate racism or sexism , but they don't actually dislike the structure, they just want their people at the top of it. Makes it hard to take them seriously.
fmac
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1mo ago
I agree. Also helped they were part of an actually productive civilization that had ethics and values which pushed them into prosperity
Also also they got shitloads of money to rebuild, which I think always softens attitudes somewhat.
fmac
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1mo ago
You break the country and the people decisively, and you relocate the survivors, and a few generations later you have a rough peace.
I'm not sure what aspect of horseshoe theory is at play here, but I never thought this would be the topic that we both agreed on
fmac
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1mo ago
Oh I see, in that case yeah
This conflict is so funny in that it seems to turn people's brains off way harder than other ones (on both sides).
It's so nakedly partisan if someone isn't blaming every side for the 100+ years of tit for tat revenge.
I used to think there was a solution and I don't anymore. The Isreali's and the Palestinian's deserve each other.
I do assign Isreal a larger share of the responsibility to end it these days though, given they have so much more power. There's also something so amazing about saving them from the Holocaust only for them to immediately go start kicking someone smaller than them, you'd think of all the people they'd be marginally more sympathetic lol.
fmac
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1mo ago
Sorry, I meant they can coexist with America / the western world
Ahhhhh, in that case, yeah
Their greatest moral failure has been half-assing it.
Seriously, it's very similar to the state of native Americans (and Australians). That at least has an end. Assimilation will win eventually I think.
fmac
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1mo ago
They've been brought up on that oppressor / oppressed narrative and see every part of the world through it
This feels kind of reductive when this is one of the most clear cut dynamics of oppressor / oppressed in the world right now.
At this point almost two years in, how many times has the population of Gaza needed to walk to the north/South of the area so that Isreal can flatten another part of the half they just left?
They have 0 control over the amount of calories their population receives.
Definition of the word "oppressed" is "subject to harsh and authoritarian treatment." It's hard to think of examples of a more oppressed group right now, aside from gamers of course.
fmac
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1mo ago
I'm not sure if I'm sentimental, I just have a hard time feeling mad at them. I also have a preference for less human suffering in the world.
It's like having trashy neighbors who loudly fight and domestic each other. I get why they're both hurt, but I'm not going over there to facilitate couples' counseling. They can spend the rest of their lives making each other miserable if they want. I'd prefer they made up so I didn't have to hear it, but it's not that annoying.
Part of me wonders if everyone would have been better off if the Isreali's had just ripped the band aid off back in the day and just straight pushed them out/completed the ethnic cleansing. The displaced Palestinians would still be salty, but they'd be a few generations into moving on by now, and they'd probably get bombed way less.
fmac
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1mo ago
It's such a stupid idea, there's no way they will
I said the exact same thing loudly and confidently about Russia going into Ukraine though, so...
fmac
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1mo ago
I used to enjoy going on /r/stupidpol
Eternal September comes for everyone eventually.
I really liked that sub, I owe it a solid debt of gratitude for shaping my thinking in some ways. I learned a lot, and also laughed a lot. It was basically antibodies for my intense dislike of the woke mob.
But man, they just cannot stop taking the stupidest most contrarian positions on things purely because the out group likes the other thing. Makes the discussion so lame and predictable.
fmac
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1mo ago
the genocidal jihadis are oppressed
I think it's very possible for them to be both genocidal and oppressed. I also think being genocidal has made them oppressed, and being oppressed guarantees they stay genocidal.
To pre-empt "you're a bleeding heart lefty", if I were dictator of my country, I would absolutely ensure a Palestinian refugee diaspora did not form in my country. This does not go well for the hosts typically.
However, half the Gaza strip is under the age of ~20. They've grown up living lives of poverty in a ""country"" that you can walk end to end in about 8 hours, and it's not easy to leave. I'm sure they grow up hearing stories of friends/family/neighbors who've lost loved ones, been injured, or lost their homes to isreali strikes.
If you or I were born there, we'd hate Jews too. I have a very hard time holding teenagers accountable for the beliefs they were born into.
If I were designing an environment to incubate terrorists I don't think I could do much better than the Gaza strip, it's basically a terrorist factory.
I'm pretty black pilled on the whole situation. I think both sides are too deep and too stubborn to ever resolve it. I think they deserve each other.
fmac
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1mo ago
Because Israel is white
Jews, Schrodinger's race
What's fun is you have factions on the left who deeply believe that they're white, and ones who take great offense to that.
There's also factions on the right who very much think they're white, or who think they're very much not.
And all for different reasons too, lots of fun
fmac
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1mo ago
Israel manipulates, but they're at least capable of peaceful coexistence
While I agree that fundamentalist Muslims make probably the worst National neighbors, this is pretty generous to the Isreali's
Their history of perpetually expanding their settlements in the West Bank (at least they left Gaza) shows they're not particularly interested in totally peaceful coexistence.
fmac
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1mo ago
world would treat Iran's nuclear program very differently.
If only there was some kind of agreement to monitor the nuclear program and help chill the situation out. It could be a joint plan between nations, it could be really comprehensive.
Sucks no one ever tried that
fmac
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1mo ago
For one of the most nuanced conflicts in the world, no one ever discusses it with nuance
It's hard to fault Isreal for blowing up its hostile neighbors. They're hostile after all.
But it's also hard to fault Isreal's neighbors for being mad about getting blown up.
It also feels pretty straightforward that clapping Iran will make them want nukes. They tried to toe the line and use the threat of making nukes as deterrence. Their bluff got called and they got smacked.
Next time they get a chance to achieve nuclear breakout (and there will be a next time), they won't make that mistake again.
fmac
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1mo ago
I saw the news of the strike and thought of you (<3)
Fair point from our discussion the other day.
I'm surprised to be saying this but Trump threaded the needle well. A bunch of MOPs and ~40 Tomahawks/whatever?
Small strike, big effect. Well played!
fmac
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1mo ago
I am deeply and profoundly confident that while America might airstrike them many more times, US infantry/Marines (special forces who knows) will not touch Iranian soil in 2025.
That would be an unbelievable strategic blunder. The amount of weapons China and Russia would pour in... It would be so foolish.
We'll find out in 5 months!
But increasingly, the only roles which are prestigious in modernity are those of white collar undefined-what-the-value-add-here-is jobs
I'm curious which jobs you're thinking of, and why the value add is unclear? Although it's also worth making the distinction between the difficulty measuring an individuals level of value add (very hard depending on the job) and the value add from the job position(s) overall, which I actually think is always incredibly clear, and the person saying "this doesn't add value" just doesn't like the job for ideological or other belief reasons.
I've worked 4 white collar jobs now. 2 of which I absolutely did not generate enough economic benefit to offset my salary. Although both of those I was an intern/fresh grad, so I was hired less to do work and more in the hope I stuck around until I was more experienced, and did work later.
The first was in an operational risk function at a bank. This specific department seemed to largely exist due to government compliance reasons, as we didn't do very much. But governments and societies have a preference for better regulated banks, so that's a value-add. In a 0 regulation environment, I think they'd get trimmed, but I also think it's rational for banks to have some level of internal risk monitoring regardless. The principal-agent problem combined with massive sums of money means that humans with power will do incredibly dumb shit which can put the bank as a whole at risk (see: bearings bank). And this bank in question had some pretty good fuck ups that resulted in government consequences in recent history, their prior lack of risk management wasn't a working business strategy.
The second was in the tax function of a large corporation. We were overstaffed half the year, but this was on purpose. Clearly whoever was in charge prefered is to be overstaffed during the year, so we'd be correctly staffed during the crunch of tax season. I always wondered why we didnt just have a skeleton crew for day to day tax stuff, and then have consultants come in for the tax filings. I assume it was probably cheaper to pay a few extra medium-tier accountant salaries than to pay for a massive tax engagement every year.
At both jobs, we can quibble about the cost/benefit of the scope/size of the department, but the value add was clear imo, I just articulated it. it doesn't strike me that either department was incredibly sub-optimal (I'd assume they'd get cut if so). You can hand-wave this away I guess as "these are zombie companies limping along due to a decade of free money" but both are massive successful corporations/household names in North America that anyone here would recognize.
fmac
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1mo ago
Unions exist solely for extracting rent in the form of above market wages
Do you feel this way about historical unions that were fighting for weekends, 8 hour work days, and basic safety precautions? Or just the modern ones that do seem to have devolved into straight rent seeking (police and teachers most obviously, with a honorable mention to east coast dockworkers).
guilds and trades apprenticeships restrict supply to drive up wages through regulatory capture
The elevator repair mechanic guild in Ontario is one of the most egregious rent seeking institutions of our time and I wish we could burn them down. Unfortunately they're very tied into the suburban-developer-complex who in turn have very deep pockets and ties to the Italian mob.
fmac
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1mo ago
This is a super interesting comment.
On a first read, I totally agree. If I'm zelensky, I'd infinitely prefer to be the leader of "the remaining 75% of Ukraine" versus "the shattered remains of the country once known as Ukraine".
But then that completely undermines the entire concept of deterrence. If your neighbor, who you have a long and shitty history with, is invading you with the full might of their army with the goal of totally capitulating you, isn't a high enough bar to use nukes, what is?
Further, it's really interesting to consider the history (or lack thereof) of nuclear war. The USA and the USSR were locked in what I'm sure felt like a profoundly existential struggle to determine the forward looking economic/social paradigm of the human race. One in which (until the maturation of SLBMs) the first mover's advantage could realistically result in complete victory for one side, and nuclear genocide for the other.
And yet, despite all that pressure, and moments where it seemed credible the other side had or was about to launch, the actual human(s) in charge of pushing the button always found a way or a reason to not do it.
And it raises an interesting question about the game theory and logic of deterrence. Under the framework, it's extremely "logical" to both ensure your nation state opponent believes you'll nuke them if they push you too far. It's also "logical" to actually nuke them if they do push too far, otherwise they'll realize you're a phony and they'll fuck with you as much as they want. But! As an individual enjoyer of industrial civilization who enjoys having their friends and family alive and not vaporized or starving to death, it's also extremely "logical" to absolutely not press that button. Sure, maybe someone else will, but hopefully when it finally comes time to do it, they'll think of their families too.
As an enjoyer of industrial civilization myself, I'm glad the second group seems to have been around when it counts.
idk I'm not the guy above, I just wanted to offer the thought that they don't only retreat
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