fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
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User ID: 3415
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1hr ago
It shows!
LMAO shots fired, luckily for me my opponents also didn't play much poker, so my amateur reverse psychology was mildly effective
They will simply not play when you are in a hand because the variance is too high
This is really interesting, so "good" players try to avoid chaotic situations and play when they have a better gut sense of what they think the other people are actually doing?
Isn't that the point of bluffing though? I'd imagine every good player does a mixture of going in on legitimately good odds hands, and some amount of bluffing? What makes an opposing player low or high variance?
Then the adults can get back to grown folks style poker.
What does this mean?
fmac
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8hr ago
Yeah you can't always play tight
I've played a vanishingly small amount of poker in my life but I usually like to set a first impression in the opening few hands by making a somewhat aggro stupid bluff so the people who are trying to track your strategy think of you as more volatile.
fmac
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2d ago
Everyone older than ~Gen X is a boomer
I look forward to about 10 years from now when 20-something Gen Alphas start calling Gen-X "boomers"
fmac
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2d ago
I worry about a world where wars of aggression are seen to be net positive
There are very few, if not zero, feasible victory scenarios for Russia that are net positive at this point
fmac
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2d ago
The guy's boss gets involved, surely due to the campaign by online Indians to get him fired, saying that he wouldn't be firing anybody.
Enough pressure happened that the guy's boss recanted, and fired the guy.
Very curious what specifically happened for the boss, who this deep into the phenomenon of Twitter cancel culture and it's inherent ephemeral nature (i.e. we all know in 2 weeks this will be forgotten) actually cracked. Weak move tbh. Why stand up then fold? Lame.
fmac
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3d ago
Wait chat is this real? I genuinely can't tell anymore
fmac
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3d ago
fmac
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4d ago
yeah I'm with you
I give them longer than 2035 on the demographic piece, but yeah we could get another Deng who decides to chill tf out post Xi, who knows.
I generally have a pretty low opinion of the ability for the PLA(N) to pull off an amphibious invasion, although it's offset by:
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the fact that Taiwanese procurement is so fucking stupid
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the fact that Taiwanese people generally don't seem that committed to defense/dying for their country, although that's what everyone thought about Ukrainians pre-2022
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the fact that China doesn't even need to invade immediately, everyone talks about "okay but the USA will just blockade China and they'll crumble" which I disagree with, but more importantly, if China is fucked by a blockade, Taiwan is mega fucked. A Chinese blockade is basically an immediate "lights out and also you're now starving" to the population of Taiwan.
I hope they don't pull it off, but I dislike all the trends.
fmac
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4d ago
Take a look at Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea's food and energy import dependence and then think about how that would go for the gang
fmac
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4d ago
I'm not sure if splitting the bullets is a smart idea or not
Probably isnt, I was just vibing
I'll have to lock in harder when I want to get away with murder
fmac
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4d ago
what made you think US primary schools were "some of the worst educational outcomes in the western world"?
I was being too snarky, I amended to "mediocre"
Middle of the pack in achievement
Pretty expensive but again, with middling outcomes.
adjusting for demographics
I would posit that having massive demographic achievement gaps is a failure state.
fmac
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4d ago
Nice to talk to someone who knows their shit!
China hasn't done the latter since 1979. Even basic seamanship atrophies quickly without constant training and re-training.
While I agree, "X country hasn't done real combat since Y" is kind of a tired trope. The US Navy hasn't fought a peer opponent since 1945 but we all agree they could wipe the floor with any other navy, and debatably could take on a large fraction of the world simultaneously.
Experience is great, but training is so close to as good it almost doesn't matter? And basically everything I see about China is they're getting in more and more training hours, and running bigger and bigger exercises.
Running a truly global Naval force is shit crazy expensive, hyper complex, and requires a training pipeline and practice that you have to develop through decades of trial and error. Human capital, culture, and experience still matter far more than sleek new hulls and neato weapons.
Yes, that's why I said it's the "training montage" part. They're not there yet, but they're fucking grinding to get there. They have a CATOBAR carrier to git gud on, they'll soon have more. Eventually they'll have nuclear powered ones so they can learn that too. There in the middle of the "decades of trial and error" part, meanwhile the US Navy is now 3/3 on failing to acquire new major surface combatants, and even if they could procure worth a damn, they barely have the shipyard capacity to make them.
I'm Canadian, I love Pax Americana, I do not want a world in which China is strong. I am scared because it seems like my team is eating crayons, going to lobbyist dinners, and laughing at the Chinese for being "IP theft bugmen who can't innovate" while the Chinese are hitting new deadlift PRs every month (still smaller than us, but growing!) and drinking a river of creatine.
But that's just talking about a hypothetical right off the coast of mainland China. In terms of true ocean going naval fore projection, what has China done more than park a flotilla in the Gulf of Aden (after getting lost one time, lol) and then doing weird joint floats with the Russians sorta-kinda near Japan?
Yes. But their naval exercises keep getting bigger and better. They're slowly expanding their global base network. Their recent "totally not practicing to cut Taiwan off" drills continue to expand.
Also, the unfortunate reality is that the fight, if it happens, will be in the first island chain, and maybe tickling the second (I'd imagine that would be a round #2 some years later depending on round #1).
The PLAN won't be forcing the straits of Magellan, where both navies have to bring their shit with them. It'll be in China's backyard.
Will Chinese Type 055s ever sail off the coast of LA? Absolutely not.
Is the PLAN on a trajectory that results in the US being pushed back deeper into the Pacific? It's looking increasingly likely, and I don't like it.
what are you talking about?
Mostly just being snarky.
unless you're claiming the progressive politics rearing its face in gender politics and racial politics in education generally or of children is some uniquely American thing, which is hard to swallow
My point was that this ideal of the best way to run schools "parents in the suburbs control it" has resulted in (edit) mediocre educational outcomes in the western world, and generally a system full of absolute fucking insanity like gender and racial politics. Maybe having technocrats would be even worse, but the status quo is extremely far from "good".
when it's happening here you can look forward to it happening in your county as well (BLM protests coming to a town near you!) and then you can tell us your surefire effective way to depose an entrenched professional class
I'm Canadian, it's too late for us, we went full retard a while ago. I'm not actually sure what the most effective way to depose an entrenched professional class is, maybe american suburban parents are the dominant strategy. Given their efficacy however, we might be fucked if they are.
fmac
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4d ago
It doesn't matter which currency is used to conduct/settle trades: totally economically meaningless, because currencies are freely swappable for any of the buyers & sellers (before and after the settlement). So the only thing that slightly matters in this realm is what currency anyone chooses to save in.
I gesture to those as indicators of shifting sentiment and soft power. You're right, but the journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step, and those are steps. They might stall, I hope they do, but dismissing everything outright is how you eventually get clapped.
I agree with the entirety of the middle of your comment. I was recently exposed to the idea that the CCP would start increasing the strength of the RMB to promote domestic consumption, which I thought was interesting. I think it would both lower the US trade defect and increase desire to save in RMB, especially if it was telegraphed as a long term trend. That being said, the CCP is so locked in on export dominance I'm not sure if they want to (or can). But an interesting thought.
the US government no longer needed to run as large of a deficit to supply those desired savings, quite a lot of people would be even happier & content with that state of affairs (even if it meant taxes were relatively a bit higher compared to spending).
Lol, lmao even. There is nothing people love more than gibs, and nothing they'll irrationally oppose more than taxes. There is no world in which that is politically tenable or happiness increasing.
fmac
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4d ago
Yeah they also do this, however to dismiss them outright because "muh restrictions, muh IP theft" is very stupid
fmac
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4d ago
Now imagine how poorly American pedagogists would behave if they could run wild and never answer to voters or parents
Fair point!
fmac
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4d ago
I guess my point was they're a canary in the proverbial coal mine, sure maybe they're idiots to laugh at, but eventually once you've bucketed the majority of human beings and economic activity into the "idiots to laugh at" bucket, you might actually be the idiot being laughed at
fmac
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4d ago
Burying things in the woods is probably better, but dont rent a car to do it. Jeeze.
LOL, fair, after I wrote that I realized it wasn't a great idea so I spliced in the bike idea because you can do that with cash
For a crime like this, you have to be in super anonymous mode to have a chance.
I think even the smartest and most prepared person would struggle to pull this off, but you don't have to make it easy for them by holding onto the murder weapon
Great comment overall though, thanks for that
fmac
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4d ago
Okay, show me. Show me where someone else posted something equivalent and wasn't modded.
I'm pretty sure WhiningCoil made a comment earlier this year calling "urban youth" parasites or something similar and then some guy made a cringe top-level comment saying he was crashing out and leaving because there was no mod action about it and there was a whole big thread but I don't remember how it ended
fmac
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4d ago
Can you name a single progressive here?
I wouldn't really call myself one as progressivism progressed passed my views sometime in the 2010s but basically anyone who reliably votes Republican likely would call me one
fmac
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4d ago
My very spicy take on immigration is that it is basically "retard colonialism" where you take the people but not the land.
I'm still always shocked that libs didn't go the opposite way on immigration. Brain draining the 3rd world.of their best and brightest, which frankly the 3rd world needs much more than we do, is so unfair. It's literally just another form of colonial value extraction.
We made our countries rich off their backs, and then compound that wealth by vacuuming up their best people, which further propels us AND keeps them down. Oops!
fmac
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4d ago
Many Israeli settlements ironically, from looking at pictures of them a whole ago, actually are a beautiful example of "missing middle" or "gentle density" that would make any lib urbanist soy face with joy
It actually cracks me up a bit given the context
God these midrises are sexy
fmac
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4d ago
Like the worst of Asian high-rise living combined with the worst of American car culture.
Genuinely kind of impressive how awful these look on YouTube.
"Okay so you know how people love gated communities right? And also how people love living in small spaces? What if, hear me out, we combined those, and also put them in the middle of fucking nowhere. There's literally no issues with my plan at all, pass the opium"
I'd assume it would be fairly noticable that "wow every time Fred bets any money he eventually wins with two high cards, given he just made a bet after folding 5 times, I can probably assume he has high cards again like the last two hands he played and won"
As we've already established, I play very little poker, but that's how I usually try and think when I play
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