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functor


				

				

				
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joined 2023 January 12 12:56:52 UTC
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User ID: 2069

functor


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2023 January 12 12:56:52 UTC

					

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User ID: 2069

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Prediction: We are heading for an AI-middle ground boom.

Predictions regarding AI tend to cluster in two extremes, those who believe we are on a parabolic arc towards super-intelligence and those who believe AI just produces slop. The pessimism regarding AI clusters around to conflicting narratives, it is so good it will cause mass unemployment and AI is so useless that the AI bubble will pop. My take is that AI is mid and that is a good thing. Gemini 3 and Claude 4.5 are useful. However, since LLMs are limited by context windows, social skills, an inability to learn after training and don't have human judgment they can't replace us. Both doomer narratives are false, we aren't going to replace all the software developers with claude, and claude is not so useless that users will abandon it, causing the AI bubble to pop.

The AI speedup is more than worker speed being improved by LLMs. Many projects are stalled waiting for someone else to complete a task. A typical corporate scenario is that someone works an hour on something, emails it to someone who waits a week before working an hour on it, and then sends it off to the next person. With LLMs enormous speed ups can be achieved by not having to wait for answers.

AI is much more than large language models. It has long been used in areas like weather prediction, and over the past decade its capabilities have advanced dramatically. Twelve years ago, AI systems struggled with basic image recognition tasks such as distinguishing cats from dogs; today, they can reliably detect subtle anomalies on factory floors. AI is now widely applied in biotech, scientific research, mining, oil extraction, fraud detection, and many other fields.

What once required a machine-learning PhD can often be accomplished in a matter of days by a technically competent practitioner using cloud platforms such as Google Cloud. While humanoid robots have captured public attention and robot butlers remain unrealistic, AI is already accelerating the deployment of industrial robots and other forms of automation. Advanced driver-assistance systems are reducing the risk of traffic accidents, and AI is speeding up academic work and scientific discovery. More broadly, AI excels at uncovering patterns in massive datasets and surfacing insights and information that would otherwise remain hidden.

Scientific work is iterative. Progress is built upon earlier progress, and one bottleneck in a chain of discoveries prevents the subsequent discoveries from happening.
If AI can unlock a few bottlenecks, that could unlock subsequent discoveries that depend upon them. We could see a small jump in scientific discoveries.

Predictions for the culture war:

We are not going to see mass unemployment, even if a few sectors end up being impacted. Smaller organizations are more nimble and able to react to changes while having similar access to AI as large corporations, this benefits small players. AI deflationary as the cost of production go down. AI in ecommerce is making the field even more cut throat driving prices down. Low inflation will cause low interest rates and high asset price inflation. The economy is going to have wind in its back over the next decade as productivity rises. Government is going to be worse at utilizing AI than the private sector leading to an increasing view of the government as incompetent and falling behind.

They can absolutely be fixed by policy. People aren't going to have kids because they get paid. They will have kids because the family is their support structure and they need it.

Cut all money to unmarried or divorced women from the government. Promote the family as the pension system. Have a culture that instills family values instead of individualism.

Modern women are married to the state. The marriage to the state is fruitless one. This form of marriage needs to be abolished and the other form needs to be promoted.

As a former haskell dev this reminds me why pure functional languages are uncommon in production. Pure functional languages are amazing 90% of the time but are a disaster 10% of the time. Since the 10% can derail a project people don't want to use them. The solution has been integrating functional features into multiparadigm languages so that devs can write 90% functional style code and then use imperative code where functional code just doesn't work well.

Rust's memory safety is great 90% of the time and becomes a blocker 10% of the time. A combination of using rust's memory features and unsafe operations allows for high flexibility and relatively high memory safety.

Nick, of course, blames the hoard of third world migrants on the Jews that are living in Western countries. The evidence for this is that there’s a disproportionate number of Jews that work for the institutions that are destroying this country. As an HBDer, this is easy to explain: there exists group differences in intelligence between the races, and Ashkenazi Jewish intelligence is very high. So you should expect Jews to be overrepresented in all positions of economic, scientific, or political prestige - even overrepresented within the institutions that are doing work that you hate.

Rather, jews do not like living in homogeneous states. They don't want to live in societies with strong cultural and norms that don't include them and prefer cosmopolitan rootless cultures. Jews don't want to be the only visible minority in an area. At the same time they don't have the same affinity to the local culture and people as gentiles in the same area. Multiculturalism is required to have another culture, aka jews there. Therefore jews promote multiculturalism.

Throw in a jewish hatred for Rome, Christianity, many Eastern European ethnic groups etc and it isnt surprising that jews are overrepresented in promoting mass migration.

Throw in wars for Israel that end up swamping Europe with migrants and the jewish problem becomes evident.

Israel has low PISA scores

A handful of studies showing marginal gains in IQ by measuring elite jews in NYC doesn't say much. If arab IQ was measured by testing in fancy parts of Dubai their scores would be impressive as well. Try Iq testing some west bank settlers for different results.

Ukrainian culture is a mixed bag. They have a far worse corruption problem than western Europeans and would drag us down with that. They are also poor and will be an endless black hole for money.

On the flip side they have a lot of positive qualities as well. However, those qualities are less likely to impact us through the EU.

I am pro Russia for several reasons.

  1. The fundamental debate regarding what the west is. The globalists want to see a gobalist, universalist empire. I want the west to focus on itself. We shouldn't be fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine or Venezuela. Even if these wars went well I don't want a global empire. They are inherently multicultural, require a police state and tie our fate to people we have nothing in common with. I support all groups fighting the globalists. The refugee and heroin flows from Afghanistan stopped when the globalists were physically kicked out of the country by the Afghan people. The Iraqis kicked the globalists out of most of their country as well. Hopefully people fighting for Keir Starmer and Macron get kicked out of Ukraine as well. These wars end up with us footing the bill while we get swamped with migrants. Then we need more government control to stop whatever evil cartoon character the media is trying to scare us with this time.

  2. Being sucked into the west would wreck Ukraine. Their culture would get replaced by America ghetto culture, their cities would fill with migrants and they would get all the same cultural bagage that saddles the rest of Europe. I have visited Kiev and it was a beautiful city with minimal third world migration, few tattooed fat women with nose rings. The last thing they need is an EU/Soros cultural program.

  3. It is bad enough that we northern Europeans have to be in the EU with Greeks and Romanians. Now we are going to add Ukraine into this mess? We are going to end up paying to be in a brutally corrupt and inefficient EU.

  4. The Eurocrats aren't even trying to hide that they are trying to bring down Russia. What they want to replace it with is woke vassal states. I see it is positive that Russia is Europe's largest country and is free and independent.

  5. All empires need Limes. The idea that the woke globalist order is going to stretch to Eastern Ukraine and to the Chinese border will put us in a constant state of semi war. It is much easier to have large buffer zones between us and other civilizations. Pushing right up against them creates conflict that we don't need. I don't want to get nuked for transgender story hour in Taiwan, Tehran or Kharkiv.

  6. We have two competing world orders. The BRICS world order is based around civilizational states that make deals with each other. The other competing globalist world order is based upon forcing a world view on the entire planet and defining all decent as evil that has no legitimacy. This world view is fundamentally opposed to states being sovereign as the global order is supposed to stand above the nation state.

  7. The idea that Europe is about to be steamrolled by Russia stands in contrast to the other narrative that Russia is a collapsing gas station. Which one is it? Is Russia about to collapse or are they about to conquer Europe? If Germany is going to be steamrolled by Russia it says more about their current civilizational incompetence than anything else. The German diplomat who cried at the Munich security council meeting after JD Vance said that European countries have to protect themselves reveals a lot about the incompetence of our current ruling class.