functor
2d ago
We have an elite completely devoid of virtue and with an inverted sense of noblesse oblige. Why should people feel any loyalty to an elite which is completely contemptible in their behaviour? The current billionaire class manage to make the corrupt people of Versailles seem virtuous.
The current elite needs to either shape up or get replaced.
functor
2d ago
They have a northern coast along the caspian sea and several long land boarders. The sanctions will not be as solid as people expect. Russia is still flying Boeing jets four years into the war. Sanctions don't work in a globalized world along long boarders.
functor
2d ago
Running a business is really rewarding and the only real path to true success for most people. I am grateful that I went into business.
With that said the results vary wildly and getting going is tough. If you have an opportunity take it. If you are going the freelancing route you can take your time and secure some clients first. If you want to found a product company then make sure to do your research.
functor
2d ago
Iran is blockading countries that participated in the attacks against them. Saudi, Bahrain, UAE can't claim that they aren't participants. They were a part of the war from day one and it is reasonable for them to pay for the damage they helped create.
As for the war I don't see it ending any time soon. The expectation is always that the next war is going to be short and end in a few weeks yet these wars generally drag on for years. Gaza is still ongoing 2.5 years later. Afghanistan dragged on for 20 years. Iraq was going 8 years after mission accomplished. Ukraine is on year 12 and 4 in terms all out war. Syrian civil war went for 14 years.
Trump has created a mess that isn't going to disappear and that will simply continue to deliver headache for years to come. George Bush at least started with popular support for his war. Trump has a war with 38% support in the first month. Trump has effectively shot himself in the foot and wrecked his second term.
As for China the pivot to Asia has become a pivot to the middle east and Ukraine. The US can't be the industrial base for Ukraine's military, fight a forever war in the middle east and compete with the world's largest industrial super power in terms of military might.
functor
2d ago
As a serial entrepreneur I can give it a mixed review. Starting a business is hell, operating a reasonably successful business is superior to being an employee. Most companies fail, so most entrepreneurs will only experience the hell.
The difference between being self employed or freelancing and running a product company is vast and underappreciated. A freelancer is effectively an employee constantly chasing new contracts. Job stability is traded for higher income and higher flexibility. This path is works for self-motivated competent people. My best advice is to find freelancing work first and then start freelancing. Don't quit your job to start looking for freelancing gigs.
Product companies are a different beast. Developing a product or a service costs far more than you expect, takes longer than you expect, and it is harder to sell than you expect. There are so many aspects of a company and if you fail one, your company fails. A few years down the line life gets better. I don't have that much to do any more. Tech team has its road map, customer support has some questions, sales and tech team are bickering as usual, and I need to settle their dispute. I have a few candidates to interview. Other than that not much happens. More time is spent eating lunch and maintaining relations with people than actually working. Building and creating processes and institutional knowledge from thin air is tough, keeping them in maintenance mode isn't nearly as hard.
As for dating being an entrepreneur is a terrible idea. Expect to work far more than average. Expect to be in a world with 90% men. Replying to tinder messages is mentally taxing when you have dozens of unanswered slack messages and emails. Being in the right headspace for a date is tough when one of the investors is acting up and making absurd demands on a call a few minutes before the date. As you become successful you will be invited into new social circles. These social circles consist of married men who are older than you and who don't now 25 year old women. Women are far less interested in hearing about your startup than you think. It takes years to make a business profitable and during these years you are broke, over worked and don't have a real job according to women. You can have a company with 100k in monthly revenue and a team. If your expenses are 100k you make no money and women think you are unemployed spending your life on a hobby.
The stereotype of the new money man with a golddigger isn't purely based on the poor taste of new money. If you are stressed, only know men, work crazy hours and don't have time to date gold diggers will be the women you meet. Who will chase a guy on tinder who is average looking and rarely replies but has a fancy watch? A guy in a bar who doesn't go out a lot and hasn't had much flow with women for years and is severely sleep-deprived will only impress certain types of Asian and Eastern European women.
If you want to meet women get a job with average pay that is a bit relaxed and where you meet a lot of women.
functor
3d ago
Why can China be the biggest trading partner with most middle eastern countries without wasting trillions on wars? What has the US gained from all these wars? Supporting wars that flood Europe with migrants is anti war.
Iran wouldn't want nukes if the US wasn't meddling in the middle east.
The terrorists that bomb the west are Sunni groups that Iran is fighting. Iran helped defeat ISIS and fought all sorts of extremists in Syria.
functor
3d ago
The american side has fired well over a thousand patriot missiles and a sizeable portion of THAAD missiles. This is not only extremely expensive but weakens the US against Russia and China.
Iran made attacking it a poor decision. Making a choice a poor choice doesn't help if the opponent make second rate choices. Trump seems surprised that the straight is closed. Clearly the US isn't making decisions on sound information.
functor
3d ago
Iran didn't have nukes before the war despite Netanyahu claiming the bomb is weeks away since the 90s. Currently 20% of the world's oil, several decently sized economies that invest heavily in the US, a large portion of global LNG, and 35% of the world's helium are under blockade. This is in order to fight a war to go back to the way things were two months ago.
Had Iran even wanted nukes if it wasn't for the constant threat of American war? The US needs to fight the enemies while the constant war creates the enemies.
This war could easily end up dragging on for an extended period of time. Nobody enters a war thinking the war will last for many years yet wars often do. The US could easily be stuck in a quagmire that drags on and becomes a story that never stops giving.
functor
3d ago
That doesn't explain the videos from Ukraine of air defences getting blown up by shaheds
This Ukrainian anti drone machine gun crew was recently taken out by a shahed.
The efficacy of the anti air systems have to be very high. 50 drones to hit one 5 billion dollar destroyer is worth it. Dozens of drones to take out an oil tanker is worth it.
The area of operations is vast. The amount of guns operating 24 seven is vast.
Also they are vulnerable to cruise and ballistic missiles.
functor
3d ago
Then why are they getting through and hitting targets? Hitting something moving in 3D at several hundred km/h is far harder than you think.
Also it is 1000 km from Kuwait to the Indian ocean. That is a lot of ships with machine guns to cover that straight.
Ukraine has after years of building up anti Shahed defences a major issue with shaheds getting through. Often Russia uses saturation attacks with multiple drones against a single target.
Again, the US navy failed against the Houthis. The US had better geography in the red sea and a weaker opponent. The US navy runs into a major issue in both places. They can sit off the coast and get shot with no real way of actually winning. They can shoot down drones using several multi million dollar SAM that are in limited supply without achieving much. They are running into the same issues the US army ran into in Afghanistan except on a larger scale.
Besides, we have seen how the US military has failed at defending itself from incoming drones and missiles. The difference here is that there is a 5 billion dollar target on the recieving end.
From Kuwait to the Indian ocean is 1000 km. How many ships will this mission require? What will be the goal apart from having ships pass the same way they passed in January without the tremendous waste.
functor
3d ago
Iran hasn't developed nukes despite Israel kvetching about it for 30 years. Just like we needed a war in Iraq because of their WMD they are now selling us another regime change fiasco with the same lie.
The American navy passed ships through yesterday to begin de-mining and is now going to blockade the Strait.
They turned around after threats from the IRGC. The US navy failed to defeat the Houthis in a year of fighting and the US lost that war. This is far, far worse. There isn't going to be a battle with a winner. It is an asymmetric fight in which Iran can launch rockets and drones from hundreds of km inland along a thousand km cost and target ships. There is nothing that stops Iran from keeping to shoot. There is no winning. There is no defeating a decentralized war effort that takes occasional shots from a vast mountain region.
China has other oil sources and large reserves. Their economy is also far less oil intensive than the American one.
functor
3d ago
The US is a major oil importer and the US exports oil because it imports oil, refines it and sells the refined oil. The US isn't energy independent because the US doesn't produce enough diesel. The US has more light oil that it consumes but not enough of other grades.
The US isn't dictating terms. The US is desperate to open the straight and has abandoned all its original goals and adopted Iran's demands as a basis for negotiating.
functor
3d ago
Iraq doesn't have WMD, neither does Iran. I didn't fall for the first WMD war and I am not going to fall for it this time. In 20 years we will still be two weeks from Iran having nukes. If we don't want countries to develop nukes maybe a working strategy is to not threaten them with complete destruction.
What did The US win? They have lost access to the straight, driven up oil prices and not achieved any of the initial goals. The US is not safer with chaos in the middle east. US trade in the middle east won't improve.
What winning looks like is what China is doing. They are the biggest trading partner with almost every country in the middle east without having to waste trillions on forever wars.
functor
3d ago
Negotiations are often slow. Even negotiating a share holder agreement for my startup took months with everyone involved actually being friends. The peace agreement is an enormously complicated agreement and far more difficult to pull together. There are plenty of edge cases, nuances, definitions and to debate. The only treaty that can be signed in a day is an unconditional surrender.
Trump ran into the same issue with Russia. There was no way he could end the war with Russia in one day. There are far too many issues and each issue has a long list of sub issues.
The leading theory on this forum a week ago was that Trump was losing so badly he would accept any peace deal as long as it was face-saving and he could declare victory.
He hasn't lost until he has signed. He is kicking the can down the road and not taking the hit and signing a peace treaty. The US should have pulled out of Afghanistan at least 18 years earlier than it did. It was easier to continue the war than to take the short term loss and accept defeat.
I fear that denying this will have me marked as some kind of rabid Trump fanboy who can’t deal with reality but I have to point out that oil was much higher during the 2008 crisis,
That caused over indebted people to default on their loans which then caused a multi year economic crisis. If the straight is blocked for months this could drive oil prices far higher.
Trump's ability to unite a wide coalition during the election was one of his great strengths. He got mainstream republicans, right wing populists, religious people, silicon valley tech bros and others to join his coalition.
In the last few months he seems to have swung in the polar opposite direction by doing his best to alienate as many groups as possible. Tucker is low IQ, Candace is ugly, the pope is weak, Elon Musk is crazy. Trump as Jesus upsets Christians. In foreign policy he has done his best to sour relations with as many countries as possible. Trump seems to have become a complete megalomaniac who lashes out at anyone who isn't worshipping him. His coalition is going to fall apart.
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