jeroboam
7mo ago
The pejorative meaning crowds out other meanings. If your movements were described as "lurching" you would not feel this as a neutral descriptor.
No one says, "the goalie lurched to his left, making an amazing save". They say "the goalie lurched to his left, tripping on his face". It is only used in a negative context.
In fact, I'll go further. A negative connotation matters more than the actual definition. There are tons of words that average people can't define but they know are "bad". Using these words to describe your outgroup reveals a bias.
jeroboam
8mo ago
Just remove the artificial restrictions to building new housing and the market will do the rest.
I used to believe that but I'm starting to have second thoughts. Look at square feet of housing per capita in the U.S.. It's never been higher. California is uniquely stupid of course, but there is lots of housing going up all over the country. But prices keep going up too. This despite interest rates which have made housing less affordable than ever.
Population growth? What population growth? California is shrinking and the U.S. has flat-lined. And yet still housing prices go up.
My personal thesis: Housing prices behave like a meme stonk. They go up because they go up. China proves how far this insanity can go before it hits a breaking point.
Housing is hard because no one knows what to do. On the other hand we KNOW how to stop drug use because we have examples from other countries. We don't have those examples.for housing. Until we get examples of what works it's just, like, your opinion man that building more houses will fix affordability.
jeroboam
9mo ago
Agree on all points. Preventing weight gain is easier than weight loss.
My guess is that the causes of obesity are multifactorial: sugar, seed oils, soft hyperpalatable foods, and chemicals all seem likely. Lack of exercise and collective loss of willpower can be ruled out safely, I think. I agree that Lithium hypothesis is not 100% explanatory, but the high altitude anomaly sill hasn't been adequately explained.
jeroboam
1yr ago
How so? I agree that a LLM neural net will hallucinate. But you can make a system that uses an LLM as a controller that can query trusted data sources and the problem is basically solved. The future of AI is not a pure LLM solution. It is using LLMs as part of a system.
jeroboam
1yr ago
Would I be correct in saying that your body's natural hunger cues aren't working and you have to exercise willpower to control your weight?
While this may be relatively easy for you, it is probably only because your set point is near your current weight. For people whose set point is much higher, the difficulty is extreme. Imagine being hungry all the time and having no energy. People's bodies will fight to maintain a high weight and energy levels will plummet to reduce expenditure of calories.
Let's say you are a 160 pound man who can maintain his weight with a 2000 calorie diet. How would you feel at 1200 calories? That is the level that some people have to maintain to not gain weight. The difficulty level varies greatly.
jeroboam
1yr ago
The number of people in prison for marijuana possession is the same as the number of wrongfully convicted people on death row. They might exist but the number approaches zero. And yet these two potentially non-existent categories somehow loom large in the popular dialogue around these topics.
So in your opinion vaccine skepticism (specifically Covid vaccine skepticism) has the same truth value as a lunatic fringe theory like QAnon? That's certainly not a very nuanced position, even if you dressed it up in 3 paragraphs of text.
There are many reasons to be skeptical of the Covid vaccines, and the skepticism is certainly not a uniquely American phenomenon.
jeroboam
21d ago
If a plantation has 60% free workers and 40% slaves, that hardly excuses the plantation owner does it?
jeroboam
21d ago
Or comparing Belarus with Estonia.
Yeah, that's the fantasy. But it won't be the reality. Ukraine is a Slavic country that is culturally similar to Russia. Whether they are politically part of Russia that won't change.
Estonia, on the other hand, is demographically most similar to Finland. That's why they got rich and Ukraine didn't.
jeroboam
22d ago
Great minds think alike I guess. Still, it's probably easier to kill some scientists when you have a green light to bomb as opposed to being sneaky.
jeroboam
1mo ago
How many children ended up in orphanages?
I don't trust Western institutions to report on this issue fairly, especially as it deals with the hot button topic of abortion. It is in the interest of Western academics to exaggerate the harms to the greatest degree possible.
I do find it bizarre to think that the state would say "have children or else" but also "once you have the children feel free to dump them in an orphanage, no problem". If it was only threats driving people's behavior, then couldn't the state simply mandate they raise children too? Then again, Communist regimes are not exactly known for good state management.
I think the correct posture here is one of epistemic humility. The birth rate went up. This was due to state policy. Everything else is mostly noise.
jeroboam
1mo ago
You are misunderstanding me completely.
The trades suck. You should get a white collar job if you can. Higher pay, better environment, better benefits, doesn't destroy your body. And absolutely no one is saying "go be a garbage man".
That said, you can get wealthy by owning a business that employs tradesman. You're not out there changing tires, you are managing the people who do. At least until they don't show up for work, lol.
You will get rich on this path, but it's still probably not worth it compared to a nice white collar job that pays 1/2 as much but comes with zero responsibility or lost weekends.
jeroboam
1mo ago
Sure and I’ve seen data that strongly contradicts the claim that IQ is unrelated to income/wealth. I just don’t want to play the “here’s a study” game in a field that is deeply ideological and corrupt. So I revert to the evidence that is directly in front of my face.
jeroboam
1mo ago
If this is going to be a discussion where we're simply hurling academic papers at each other that neither of us are going to read, then I see little point in continuing it.
Agreed.
Almost all high-IQ people earn less than $60,000 a year, which is below the U.S. national median household income. And yet see how many low IQ people earn more than these amounts.
This doesn't seem to mesh with the data I've seen from Kirkegaard and others. I simply don't trust academics in the area of IQ research. Nor would I trust Soviet economists.
Looking at the 10 richest Americans, it's clear that all 10 have extreme outlier IQs on the high side. I'd say that all 10 have an IQ of at least 145, but even if we say they are "merely" at 130, the odds that this would happen through luck are less than 1 in a trillion.
I will grant that the presence of career academics might lower the average wage of high IQ people somewhat. This is far outweighed by doctors, lawyers, and software engineers who all (until recently) had to pass through an IQ filter.
In my personal life, I see a clear and obvious relationship between IQ and income. It's going to take a lot of high quality data to convince me to ignore the obvious data in front of my face. You may call that availability bias, I'll call it passing a shit test.
jeroboam
1mo ago
I've bought some very very small businesses but nothing at that scale.
The linked business seems comparable to what I've seen. If they take seller financing then it could be a very good opportunity. The catch? You would have to move to Utah and run a business with lots of low wage employees. Your days will be spent filling out tax forms and putting out fires. But I think you would get rich.
The owner might be reluctant to do seller financing with a stranger...
jeroboam
1mo ago
Of course, see above. The difference is you actually have to take some risk and responsibility and not just collect a check.
jeroboam
4mo ago
I apologize for my snark earlier.
I don't understand the objection. An affluent person doing something for $1 billion is different than a person in abject poverty doing that same thing to survive.
jeroboam
4mo ago
Would you say people can't show outrage over the October 7th attack unless they read up and condemn every atrocity that was committed in the region leading up to that date?
Yes. More specifically, I think the scope of caring should be scaled to the level of the atrocity.
jeroboam
4mo ago
I think it'd be good for the country to have a centrist like Mitt Romney in charge just so that everyone can calm down for a bit.
The worry for Republicans, and why they won't nominate a centrist, is that centrist Republicans have completely caved to globalist pressure on core issues like immigration, Covid lockdowns, and LGBT celebration.
I agree with you that the media will lay off any Republican who defects on core issues. Want to cut taxes for the rich and start a couple new wars like George Bush? No problem. Want to stop illegal immigration and shut down youth gender transition? Jihad.
jeroboam
4mo ago
No, it's not "most". Maybe 5 pounds of water weight if that.
I've been off the diet for 3 weeks. Trust me when I say that my glycogen stores are fully replenished. I've been eating like a pig. I'm still 8 pounds lighter and my waistline is smaller.
jeroboam
4mo ago
I do wonder--how much of the pushback has been from people making my same mistake?
Probably a lot. Most people view "calls for peace" as "enemy fifth columns".
Making observations about the downvotes is a surefire way to attract more. I'd guess it's because people view it as an expression of entitlement.
That's insightful. I think you're right about the entitlement. In my personal life I'm fairly high status. So how dare people not agree with me on the internet!! I've just gotten a taste of what the typical liberal poster has to deal with on this forum. (Or the typical conservative anywhere else).
I think in general this forum helps me clear up sloppy thinking, even if it's just intellectual masturbation. I feel like this episode was somewhat frustrating because people seemed to be responding with emotion and bile, or failing that, I didn't understand their arguments well enough to change my thinking. Normally when I get pushback, I have made some fundamental mistake. If I did this time, I don't see it.
Ah... I get it the objection. Yes, there is no problem with using the word lurch. Lurch, lurch, lurch. It's fine. Use it all you want.
But when you refer to the arguments of your political opponents in the same way that you are refer to the movements of a drunkard, then you are slurring them. "Swedish voters are drunkenly stumbling to the right" is just as bad. Lurch itself is not a bad word.
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