I agree that Iran intends this as a face saving measure and not as a real attack. But they fucked up... badly.
It appears that almost all of the attacks are being shot down and (it's early so grain of salt) Jordan and Saudi Arabia are even helping Israel shoot them down. This confirms that Iran is much weaker and more impotent than thought. They aren't actually capable of hurting Israel in a direct way.
So the question becomes what does Israel do now. Bill Ackman is tweeting a source called Israeli Radar which says :
"Senior source: Israeli response vs. Iran will be unprecedented; don't go to sleep tonight."
Well, we all know how reliable "senior sources" are so I wouldn't expect an Israeli attack. But I wouldn't rule it out either. Israel probably has 48-72 hours to attack Iran's nuclear program before their hall pass expires.
Edit: Looks like Biden is telling Israel they don't have a hall pass.
You can't just look at the marginal cost, you have to consider the fixed costs that go into making the first dose. Drug development has a lot of candidate drugs that don't pan out and so they need big hits to pay for failed drugs.
Yes. Bernie Sanders is quite dumb and honeymooned in the USSR. His understanding of economics is at the /r/antiwork tier.
For the past two years there have been and continue to be pretty severe GLP-1 supply shortages in the US,
Cool. Why don't they just cut off all supplies to Europe and sell exclusively to the US at 20x the price.
C: To a large extent, the 'system' is working. US citizens are getting earlier access to these drugs
Where can I sign up to wait in line 12 months like a German and get drugs for 95% off?
$12,000/year is immense. Americans are being uniquely screwed here.
Edit: Apologies for unnecessary antagonism. No hard feelings I really just want more posts on this frickin' forum already!
jeroboam
5mo ago
What makes you think Putin would accept a ceasefire proposal along the current line of control? All I have seen indicates to me that he is fully prepared to fight a years-long war of attrition until Ukraine runs out of either artillery shells or people, because he thinks at that point they will collapse like the Germans in 1918 and he can have the glorious march to Kiev he was denied at the start of the war
Isn't this just a general purpose argument for extending the war forever? Obviously the opponent would only compromise if he was weak. And if he's weak we can win!
Algorithm for perpetual war
-
Opponent is losing: Don't stop now, he's toast. March on to victory.
-
Opponent is winning: Don't negotiate from a state of weakness.
Honestly, I don't know. Maybe Putin wouldn't accept peace even at the current borders. Maybe he would. Maybe he'd give it all back in exchange for international recognition of Crimea. Why are we afraid to try offering an olive branch?
This kind of reminds me of those free range eggs where the chickens have a 2x2 patch of grass that they could theoretically use but almost exclusively don't.
It's a way for people to completely negate the moral worth of another person. Why didn't the Confederate soldiers desert? Why didn't the Nazi? If they didn't surrender, fuck it, they deserve to die. After all, 1% did the "right thing".
Notice, however, that this assumes there even is a "right thing". Had the Germans won, perhaps they'd be arguing the same from the opposite perspective.
Or perhaps in 50 years, any non-vegan will be similar perceived as a moral monster. After all, there are some people today who are vegans. I don't know. I just err on the side of not killing hundreds of thousands of humans unless there is a clear and obvious reason why it's necessary.
In any case, I think we're getting sidetracked. We should end this war for the sake of the Ukrainians even if Russian lives have zero value to you.
jeroboam
5mo ago
It’s likely cheaper for the west to fund Ukraine.
If we value the lives and prosperity of Ukraine (and Russia) at zero than perhaps this is true.
Every Russian leader for centuries has expanded Russian borders thru military conflict since the founding of Moscow.
This way of thinking is, in my mind, the "grand strategy" of which I am extremely skeptical. We should be on guard against simple narratives that paper over real life complexity. IMO, the actions of Catherine the Great have zero predictive value for what Russia will do today.
Just-so stories got us into Vietnam and Iraq. Let's not repeat the mistake against a nuclear power this time.
I'm not pro-Russia (who here is?) but yes Ukraine should seek peace and concede territory if necessary. I have little doubt that this would minimize human suffering.
The counterargument seems to be something along the lines of "We need teach Russia a lesson so they won't do it again. Remember Munich!"
Which is silly. Russia lacks the capacity to do it again.
I find the arguments of the warmongers very unconvincing. The use of the pejorative "pro-Russia" to describe those who would have peace feels like manufacturing consensus.
jeroboam
8mo ago
You are an outlier. Congrats!
The probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight is very small.
I do think there is model where anyone can go from obese to slim within an extreme amount of exercise. If you're training for long-distance ski races or endurance swimming, you will burn so many calories that no amount of eating can overpower it.
jeroboam
8mo ago
Funny enough, I stated earlier on this week's thread that I only participate in hyperstitious slur cascades once 90% of people have joined. (versus Scott's 70%).
I stand by that here, and believe that lurch is used negatively nearly 100% of the time. We'll have to agree to disagree.
jeroboam
8mo ago
This seems true. Because I didn't recognize the term, here's how GPT-4 defines public choice theory.
"Public choice theory studies how government decisions are made and how they can be influenced by individual or group self-interest. It applies economics to political science to analyze government efficiency and policy outcomes."
In the context of your comment, I think it means that government bureaucrats make decisions based on their own ideology and self-interest, not that of the populace. This seems self-evidently true to me.
The problem, of course, is that the people who are attracted to the bureaucracy tend to exhibit traits that make them far more liberal than the general population. In any large bureaucracy, the deep state would always exist. But rarely before (in the United States) has it been so ideologically divergent from the average person.
jeroboam
11mo ago
Here's a counterargument. China does despise white people, they are just better at hiding it due to East Asian cultural norms.
Meanwhile in the West, while its true that white males face serious dejure discrimination, we are still on the top of the social hierarchy in some ways. For example, white men have an easier time finding dates with women. This "revealed preference" of women shows their true beliefs. Even if they might claim to view all races equally, they prefer white men.
So I think you are overestimating hate for white men in the West and underestimating it in China.
jeroboam
20hr ago
When you are weak it is best to avoid antagonizing your enemy.
The worst case scenario is that the bureacracy would just say "no" to Trump's orders, precipitating a constitutional crisis. More likely they'll just slow play his demands until the clock is run out. Then the lawfare against him can begin anew.
The only way he doesn't die in jail is if a Republican is elected in 2028. For that reason, he needs to remain popular with the people which means not triggering a crisis.
jeroboam
1mo ago
If a plantation has 60% free workers and 40% slaves, that hardly excuses the plantation owner does it?
jeroboam
1mo ago
I don't know. This decision seems badly out of touch. Elite values are not the values of the average voter.
And while I'm sure white Boomers will be kept onside by NBC news fact checks that say "actually, Biden didn't make Easter into Trans Awareness Day", this group of mainstream news watchers is increasingly irrelevant.
Republicans can and should plaster this everywhere. How will this play in the black community? How will this play in the Hispanic community? This badly hurts the Democratic Party coalition and speeds along the party realignment.
Democrats might never win the Hispanic vote in a Presidential election again.
jeroboam
2mo ago
here are emerging small / micro PE firms that will blow you out of the water because they don't need to finance the way a solo-preneur does.
Color me skeptical. While PE is rolling up certain kinds of businesses, they are not buying landscaping and tire repair shops at the $1 million level. They aren't going to buy anything that depends on the sweat equity of the owner.
Financing as a solo-preneur is not prohibitive. There are SBA loans. There is seller financing. You can do it for 10-20% down, maybe less.
it's EZ to buy a business" nonsense.
It's not "EZ" nor did I claim it was. That's why people don't do it. Most people would rather earn W2 income where someone else has all the responsibility and they just show up and drone.
jeroboam
2mo ago
Of course, see above. The difference is you actually have to take some risk and responsibility and not just collect a check.
jeroboam
4mo ago
Somewhat related, but recently one poll showed Trump with a yuuuge lead (20%!) among voters under 35. The poll is such a outlier that I would take it with a grain of salt, but it certainly updates me in the direction of young people actually preferring Trump to Biden.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-poll-joe-biden-washington-post-1829608
jeroboam
4mo ago
A... pink slate?
Lol. My bad.
To the extent your argument works for progressive antiracism being fake, it seems that it would do likewise for religions - but then that fakeness is surely moot, since smart people have lived, killed and died for it in droves.
Great analogy. Wokism is similar to a religion in many ways. The beliefs of wokists are fake. Similarly, the religious disputes between Protestants and especially Catholics during the Wars of Religion was fake as well. Do you think the average person cared about doctrinal disputes? Of course not. They might have pretended to care. But not enough to actually learn enough about religion to adequately explain the differences. These were, after all, mostly illiterate people.
So why were they fighting? Tribalism.
jeroboam
5mo ago
Hey I'm getting a taste of what it's like to be a liberal on this forum! Lot's of pushback and it's getting tiring. But I'll soldier on.
But that land first needs to be returned to Ukraine, and then we can go on.
It's just so far out of the realm of possibility that Ukraine captures Crimea, let alone the other lands that were taken. It would cause hundreds of thousands of military deaths on both sides. And hundreds of billions of dollars. Minimum.
What theory are you even referring to?
The theory that if we don't stop Putin here he'll take over Poland, then the Baltics, then the world! It's Hitler at Munich all over again unless we DO SOMETHING!
It may take years, but I do think that Russia can be defeated. At horrendous cost, yes, but the tree of liberty requires the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Yes, if we spend a couple trillion dollars and send in troops we can push Russia back to the 1991 borders. Maybe there won't even be a nuclear exchange. How much of the cost are you personally willing to bear? Would you spend $10k of your own money, $100k, volunteer in Ukraine, fight in Ukraine?
jeroboam
6mo ago
It does seem like the root issue is not a business failing, but the feeling of inadequacy. A person with a strong frame doesn't update his own self worth downward for something so minor as a business failing.
That said, does "lefty therapy" ever fix these issues?
Maybe they get half way there. A therapist might help a person to realize that it is his own feelings of unworthiness, not a business failing, which is the true source of his suffering.
But then a modal therapist would seem to encourage this same patient to wallow in that sense of unworthiness every week, rather than take the steps to overcome it and, therefore, no longer have need of therapy.
jeroboam
8mo ago
I did look it up and that information tells you nothing. Most of these "businesses" are a single person. How many have 10 employees? How many have 100?
jeroboam
2mo ago
If this is going to be a discussion where we're simply hurling academic papers at each other that neither of us are going to read, then I see little point in continuing it.
Agreed.
Almost all high-IQ people earn less than $60,000 a year, which is below the U.S. national median household income. And yet see how many low IQ people earn more than these amounts.
This doesn't seem to mesh with the data I've seen from Kirkegaard and others. I simply don't trust academics in the area of IQ research. Nor would I trust Soviet economists.
Looking at the 10 richest Americans, it's clear that all 10 have extreme outlier IQs on the high side. I'd say that all 10 have an IQ of at least 145, but even if we say they are "merely" at 130, the odds that this would happen through luck are less than 1 in a trillion.
I will grant that the presence of career academics might lower the average wage of high IQ people somewhat. This is far outweighed by doctors, lawyers, and software engineers who all (until recently) had to pass through an IQ filter.
In my personal life, I see a clear and obvious relationship between IQ and income. It's going to take a lot of high quality data to convince me to ignore the obvious data in front of my face. You may call that availability bias, I'll call it passing a shit test.
jeroboam
4mo ago
Would you say people can't show outrage over the October 7th attack unless they read up and condemn every atrocity that was committed in the region leading up to that date?
Yes. More specifically, I think the scope of caring should be scaled to the level of the atrocity.
jeroboam
5mo ago
I do wonder--how much of the pushback has been from people making my same mistake?
Probably a lot. Most people view "calls for peace" as "enemy fifth columns".
Making observations about the downvotes is a surefire way to attract more. I'd guess it's because people view it as an expression of entitlement.
That's insightful. I think you're right about the entitlement. In my personal life I'm fairly high status. So how dare people not agree with me on the internet!! I've just gotten a taste of what the typical liberal poster has to deal with on this forum. (Or the typical conservative anywhere else).
I think in general this forum helps me clear up sloppy thinking, even if it's just intellectual masturbation. I feel like this episode was somewhat frustrating because people seemed to be responding with emotion and bile, or failing that, I didn't understand their arguments well enough to change my thinking. Normally when I get pushback, I have made some fundamental mistake. If I did this time, I don't see it.
jeroboam
5mo ago
Putin has shown again and again and again that any compromise will be taken as a sign of weakness that emboldens him to push further. If you wish to minimise human suffering, focus on winning the war and defeating Russia to the point where it stops launching such stupid and wasteful wars in the first place.
I'm generally a fan of not paying the Danegeld. But there are limits.
Both sides in WWI were surely using this logic. "The surest path to end this war and save lives is a swift victory over the bloodthirsty Kaiser / imperialists".
Putin has had his nose bloodied. Badly. And what other Russian-speaking areas are left to take? Meanwhile, tens of thousands are dying each month. In my mind, these very real deaths outweigh any theoretical strategic considerations. This is not an absolute principle, but real-politik that involves actual casualty numbers (high) and actual risk of future Putin action (in my opinion overstated).
Anyone who believes in the absolute principle ends up in the WWI scenario where "beating the enemy" is the only thing that matters while millions die.
Yes, I agree with most of this. Iran's actions demonstrate great military weakness and lack of desire to expand the conflict. But I'm not sure everyone knows this. I just responded to a comment that argued the opposite in fact. I'd argue the consensus is Iran is a true regional power.
Probably, but as this isn't 1990 it matters a lot less. They'll just be hurting themselves. The U.S. is the world's largest oil producer and there are large reserves in South America waiting to be developed. Oil trades at $85/barrel, down 60% from 2008 levels in inflation-adjusted terms. Lots of wiggle-room there.
Yes. That's the meat. Will Israel attack Iran's nuclear capability? It will be good for the world if they do. Terrorists should not have nukes.
More options
Context Copy link