jeroboam
15d ago
Otoh you have assholes like me who dropped out of work super early, living off capital gains, and pay almost nothing in taxes because the cap gains taxes are so low.
Paper assets have had quite the decade haven't they? The coming decade may see capital gains that are not much above inflation. Imagine earning 5% per year with 5% inflation and then paying "capital gains" when you sell. It's a back-door wealth tax.
I'd have no problem with higher capital gains taxes, but only on gains that exceed inflation.
Or the billionaires who just take out margin loans forever, then pass it all on to their heirs, who then get a stepped up basis with no capital gains.
This is the loophole that needs to be fixed. "Buy borrow die" is overpowered and needs to be neutered.
jeroboam
12d ago
Even if Mark does become based, it's a virtual guarantee that his wife will donate his money to batshit liberal causes once he dies/they get divorced.
jeroboam
17d ago
If you're arguing that genes don't care about human happiness and that eventually (hundreds or thousands of years from now) maladaptive cultures like feminism will die out and be replaced by adapative ones like Hassidic Judaism, then yes, I agree.
But unlike my genes I do care about human happiness, and I think that feminism is working out very badly for women.
If feminine standards are telling them to be an unmarried cat owner looking for Mr. Right at age 35 then maybe we should examine why, rather than just shrug and say "another person weeded out of the gene pool".
jeroboam
8d ago
Too many. The political goals of the Ukrainian government are not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of conscripts who were rounded up against their will.
Is conscription always wrong? I wouldn't argue that. It's wrong in this case because the scale of the suffering is too high for the diminishing chances of victory. How many Ukrainians would you be willing to sacrifice? I've given my answer, and the Ukrainian government won't return my emails.
If I were Zelensky, I would immediately call for a cease fire and ask the U.S. to broker a peace deal. I would be willing to give up the territory already lost in exchange for peace. If Putin says no, I'd keep fighting. That's what I would do. But I'd ask the pro-war faction to be equally candid about their goals and what they are willing to give up to achieve them.
jeroboam
1mo ago
One of the reasons I tend conservative is the different views towards exit rights.
For most conservatives, the reaction to liberals who want to go start a communist paradise elsewhere is "Good. Go do it!". This is a sincere wish. The presence of communism elsewhere is the surest bulwark against it happening here. The idea of communism so alluring that we need constant reminders about its failures, which are guaranteed.
But liberals have more of a "yous can't leave" attitude. The grand experiment can only work if everyone is forced to join. If the ants go somewhere else, the grasshoppers won't have any food to eat. Thus, states like California are considering exit taxes to trap the high-performing people in the state. And obviously the Soviets had to keep people inside with barbed wire and guns.
jeroboam
16d ago
The Ukrainian people and government want to fight
Maybe the government wants this war. Maybe even the people do too. But not enough to go fight and die. That's why Ukraine is rounding up men and forcing them to fight against their will.
The people who seem to want this war the most are those for whom it costs nothing.
jeroboam
8d ago
Perhaps not this stimulus or that stimulus, but the implication is that $X will win the war (for some value of $X).
Otherwise, we are just giving money to prolong the conflict, killing hundreds of thousands of young men in the process. And that would be truly evil.
jeroboam
12d ago
So Biden apparently claimed his uncle was eaten by cannibals.
Perhaps he was inspired by the real-life experience of George H. W. Bush, whose plane was shot down by Japan in WWII. Among the American aviators shot down that day, some were captured by the Japanese and had their livers eaten. But somehow Bush himself was rescued by a submarine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush#World_War_II
jeroboam
16d ago
I've said it before, I'll say it again: bleeding Russia is on sale right at an amazing discount right now, so we're buying a bit.
I think this is the rationale.
It doesn't seem to be working. The sanctions have failed. Utterly. It turns out that China, not the West, is the key trade partner of any commodity producer. Russian oil and commodities freely trade on the world market, and the West is actually afraid to sanction Russia more strongly because it hurts them more than Russia. Sanction Russian metals? Great, welcome to higher prices and China will scoop up all Russian production for cheap.
The bigger issue is that the Russian army is 15% larger than before the war and apparently Russia is outproducing the West in key armaments by large margins.
But even if this strategy was effective, killing 1 million people to "weaken" an adversary is just incredibly evil.
jeroboam
16d ago
The idea that Ukrainians are only fighting out because mean old NATO made them do it is absurd.
It's one thing to support a war in the abstract. It's another to volunteer to actually fight the war. There is not sufficient volunteer manpower, so Ukraine is forced to round up men at gunpoint and force them to serve.
I do not believe that the continued prosecution of the war (for what aims?) can justify the human rights tragedy that is unfolding.
jeroboam
16d ago
I'm also pro-West. Putin and Russia don't provide a convincing alternative to a better future. But just because Putin is evil and wrong doesn't mean we can't make peace for pragmatic reasons.
This is not Munich in 1938. Russia is a wounded animal, encircled by NATO. People saying "if we don't stop him now, he'll take Poland" are fabulists. This is not a realistic scenario.
On the other hand, I think the lives of Ukrainian conscripts (and yes, even Russian conscripts) have non-zero value.
So, if one, uh, wanted to get some LSD IVF with polygenic embryo screening, where would you actually go for that? Anyone know a guy?
There's lots of talk about it, but is this something currently available for couples looking to conceive? Assume cost is no impediment.
jeroboam
11d ago
He’s given lots of money to left causes, notably efforts to help democrats get out the vote in 2020.
jeroboam
16d ago
Well, why do you think they fight?
Increasingly, they fight because they are conscripted and forced to. Ukrainian men are being treated as if their lives have no value.
jeroboam
15d ago
the Russians will not be kind masters as weirdly envisioned by anti-progressives.
Who is saying that? Maybe someone. On this forum, the idea that Russia is some sort of right-wing paradise has been debunked many times. For one, Russia practices a model of top-down state control that aligns tightly with the modern left. The reality is that Russia is neither right nor left by American standards and is not a useful model to either party.
You can be anti-war without being pro-Russia. And you can also recognize that Russian victory is preferable to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of additional Ukrainian men. And even if you don't recognize this, Russia might win anyway.
Will Russia be kind masters of Ukrainian territories? I don't know. It won't be a paradise. But it beats dying in a ditch. And even if you personally don't think so, you have no moral right to condemn other people to die in a ditch against their will.
It's early, but oil and gold futures suggest that Israeli's attack was either performative or (as Iran claims) foiled. Perhaps this will be the equivalent of two untrained men attempting to fight each other but largely failing to do any real damage.
Nothingburger is looking good for now, but obviously this attack increases the risk of more tits and tats until something breaks.
Okay, I'll go.
The big news this weekend was that Trump had a rally and said that, should he not be elected, the U.S. auto industry would be overrun with cheap Chinese imports. He used the word "bloodbath".
The mainstream media, which we're assured rarely tells outright lies, decided to find the exact dividing line between an outright lie and "still technically the truth". You can be the judge of whether they succeeded. For just one of many examples, Joe Scarborough ran a segment where the words "Trump warns of a bloodbath for America if he loses" were emblazoned on the bottom of the screen.
Of course, if any of this surprises you in the slightest, you haven't been paying attention. It's slightly boring at this point and would be funny except so many boomers still watch that dross.
What I want to focus on is the actual substance of Trump's claim. I think that, this time, Trump is on to something. The Detroit auto industry is about to have a head-on collision with China and get absolutely wrecked.
Already, Detroit is not in good shape. The Big 3's share of U.S. auto sales has fallen from 90% in 1965 to just 44% by 2018. (I'm sure it's much lower now). It gets worse. The only reason that Detroit has done this well is a 25% tariff on foreign light trucks that was passed by LBJ in retaliation for European tariffs against U.S. chicken.
In terms of small cars, Japanese automakers have been beating Detroit for decades. For luxury vehicles, Germany has worldwide dominance. That leaves only light trucks and SUV's, where Detroit still performs well only due to tarriffs. We've sort of forgotten about Detroit since 2008. The perception is that things were bad for awhile, but then the automakers got bailed out and they're okay now, especially #girlboss CEO Mary Barra.
This isn't true. The stock prices of the Big 3 have limped along. GM, once the 2nd most valuable U.S. company, now has a market cap only 2% the size of NVIDIA. And, if the Big 3 haven't gone bankrupt again, it's only by jettisoning high-paid union labor. Michigan, once a well-off state, now ranks 39 out of 50 in household income, falling well behind former hick states like Texas and North Carolina.
Enter China.
China is already, by far, the world's largest producer of automobiles, producing about 3x as many as the U.S. Also, China can sell an EV for $10,000. While I'm sure there would need to be changes for the U.S. market, it would not be too expensive at scale. Get ready for hordes of these "shitty but good enough" cars to enter the market.
"No one will ever buy a Chinese car" you laugh, nearly dropping your monocle into your glass of cognac. I don't think this opinion can withstand serious scrutiny. Japanese cars once had a similar reputation. Nowadays, choosing to buy an American car over a Japanese one is seen as either extremely patriotic or moronic. Even if quality never improves, people still buy plenty of Kias and Hyundais. How many more would they buy if the price was reduced by 30-50%?
So let's say all of this is true. A wave of Chinese imports are coming which will cripple the U.S. auto industry. How will voting for Trump help? My gut feeling is that Trump can't save Detroit but that, unlike Biden, he'll at least try.
For most of the period of the 1980s-present, the world has been a huge beneficiary of free trade. The rich in the U.S. have grown much richer, obscenely so. But the biggest gains have been won by the working class in developing nations, especially China. Despite all that there have been losers. The biggest losers are the working class in rich nations, especially in areas that compete with China.
The traditional government solution to manufacturing being outsourced has been to offer job retraining and lots of government benefits to the affected class. But this just doesn't work. The places that have been affected by blue collar job loss are now hollowed-out shells of their former selves.
Trump will probably at least try to ban or tax Chinese cars. Is this the right thing to do? Maybe, maybe not. It will cost American consumers a lot of money, and it will depress wages in China. In aggregate, the tariffs will probably make the world a worse place. But they will help the group that has lost so much and which has been ignored and scorned for decades. The group Biden pretends to care about but which Trump actually does.
Edit: Just saw this retweeted by Crémieux:
America's most affluent metro areas in 1949: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1769891112095740274/photo/1
You'll never guess who's #1.
Women used to have duties as well: to bear children and to raise them.
Without those duties, deference to the fairer sex may live on in our lizard brains but it serves no useful purpose.
jeroboam
13d ago
We also have to factor in (for women) a declining sexual market value. So the max score of suitors goes down over time, thus favoring settling earlier.
For men, the max score of potential mates goes up at first, peaks in the 30s, and then declines.
With an average age of first marriage for men of 30.5 and women of 28.6, women are being too picky and men not picky enough. You see, it's science.
jeroboam
1mo ago
Conversation has been slow here. I feel like the standards have increased to the point where people are afraid to post (except of course for bad faith posters who don't care).
So, let me try a post that's more of a conversation starter and less of a PhD thesis.
According to Bernie Sanders, it costs about $5 to make a monthly dose of Ozempic, the blockbuster-weight loss drug. Americans pay about $1000/month. Canadians pay $155. Germans pay $59.
The stock of the company which makes the drug, Novo Nordisk, has doubled since the beginning of 2023. (I considered buying in 2022 but didn't because I thought I was already too late 💀) It now has a market cap of nearly $600 billion, making it the most valuable company in Europe.
I assume that if companies were forced to charge the same price in U.S. as they do in Europe, the global pharma industry would become insolvent.
So why is the United States paying for > 100% of global pharma research? And how can we fix the glitch?
See, this is why center-left people don't feel like allying with the right, despite our increasing frustration with the regressive far-left. I dislike their attitude of wanting to define reality and outlaw disagreement, but I just know that if the right gets into power they'll do the same, but harder.
This seems to imply that you have the following preference cascade when it comes to jailing people for speech:
- No one uses this power
- Only the left uses this power
- Both sides use the power
- Only the right uses the power
Whereas my cascade is this:
- No one uses this power
- Both sides use the power
- Only the right uses the power
- Only the left uses the power
The left defected in a major way by inventing this super weapon. For the right to now hit the "cooperate" button just ensures further defection from the left.
As a center-leftist, you seem to want the right to not actually fight against the left. This is in effect ensuring far left victory. Instead, in my opinion, you should tactically support the right when they are weakest.
Edit: I read your comments below. Maybe you are actually doing in this in which case I apologize for the misreading.
Israel / Iran War Back On?
Rumors are swirling that Israel will attack Iran as early as today. Iran has promised to retaliate if they do.
Why would Israel do this? Some conjectures:
-
Iran's missile and drone attack was so pathetic that Israel feels it can attack with little fear of retaliation
-
The reaction to Iran's attack shows that Sunnis won't help Iran
-
An outside chance of regime change in Iran might be worth it. Israel has gradually improved relations with Sunni neighbors such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, Iran's proxy fights have been a constant thorn in their side. A regime change in Iran could finally bring true peace to Israel.
-
If they can set back Iran's nuclear program it will be worth it
One big wild card is of course the U.S. reaction. Biden is in the middle of a difficult re-election campaign where inflation is probably the #1 issue. Petrol prices have been a major obsession with the Biden administration, which is why they unfroze billions of Iranian funds and reduced sanctions (in what now looks to be a serious blunder).
Israel's attack could cause a spike in oil prices and threaten Biden's reelection campaign. Having already drained about half the SPR to help win the 2022 midterm elections, there is less flexibility to supress prices this time around. For this reason, Biden has urged restraint. But when the chips are down, I think everyone knows that Israel will have the administration's full support.
Less certain is the reaction of European countries and Muslim neighbors. Will countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia truly remain neutral if there is a full-blown war between Shia Muslims and Jews?
jeroboam
8d ago
I agree on the theory of deterrence. I am willing to sacrifice 1,000-10,000 Ukrainians to teach Russia a lesson.
How many are you willing to sacrifice?
So... don't walk in a bad neighborhood if you don't want to be raped?
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