jeroboam
13d ago
A Tone-Shift in the Ukraine War
Lately, I've noticed that the tone of the discussion regarding Ukraine both on the Motte and on X has changed considerably. Notably, it seems that people are taking a much more pessimistic view of Ukraine's chances. The default assumption now is that Ukraine will lose the war.
I think a stalemate is still quite possible, but the more optimistic assumptions that Ukraine would regain lost territory (or comically, Crimea) are now a dead letter. So what, exactly, are our leaders thinking? Recently, Macron went off-narrative a bit, suggesting that France could send troops into Ukraine. More ominously, Secretary of State Blinken said that Ukraine will join NATO.
Perhaps Western leaders view this sabre-rattling as good for their electoral chances. And, until recently, the war was seen as a relatively cost-effective way to weaken Russia. (Sadly, this seems to have failed as Russia has freely exported oil to India and China and is making armaments in great numbers).
But what of Ukrainians themselves? Will they tire of being NATO's cat's paw? It's impossible to find good numbers on how many Ukrainian men have been killed so far in this war. It's likely in the hundreds of thousands. Towns and villages throughout the country are devoid of men, as the men (hunted by conscription) either flee, hide, or are sent to the fronts.
User @Sloot shared this nuclear-grade propoganda. While Ukrainian men fight and die in some trench, an increasing number of Ukrainian women are finding new homes (and Tinder dates) in Germany. Concern about female fidelity has always been a prominent feature of wartime propaganda. But, this takes it to a new level, since the women are in a different country, making new, better lives for themselves. How many will ever even return to Ukraine?
Ukrainian men are getting a raw deal in an effort to reconquer lost territory, whose residents probably want to be part of Russia anyway. Why should Ukrainians fight and die for some abstract geopolitical goal of NATO?
jeroboam
13d ago
The idea that Ukrainians are only fighting out because mean old NATO made them do it is absurd.
It's one thing to support a war in the abstract. It's another to volunteer to actually fight the war. There is not sufficient volunteer manpower, so Ukraine is forced to round up men at gunpoint and force them to serve.
I do not believe that the continued prosecution of the war (for what aims?) can justify the human rights tragedy that is unfolding.
jeroboam
13d ago
the Russians will not be kind masters as weirdly envisioned by anti-progressives.
Who is saying that? Maybe someone. On this forum, the idea that Russia is some sort of right-wing paradise has been debunked many times. For one, Russia practices a model of top-down state control that aligns tightly with the modern left. The reality is that Russia is neither right nor left by American standards and is not a useful model to either party.
You can be anti-war without being pro-Russia. And you can also recognize that Russian victory is preferable to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of additional Ukrainian men. And even if you don't recognize this, Russia might win anyway.
Will Russia be kind masters of Ukrainian territories? I don't know. It won't be a paradise. But it beats dying in a ditch. And even if you personally don't think so, you have no moral right to condemn other people to die in a ditch against their will.
jeroboam
16d ago
Israel hasn't exposed and humiliated a rival country in awhile, so I suppose it's due.
Iran has blundered badly here. Israel was taking real damage in the Gaza conflict. Now they get to look like the victim again which means the US and its clients will rally to their cause.
I expect these attacks to fail hilariously, and for Iran to be revealed as a paper tiger that is capable of funding terrorists but little else militarily. In fact apparently Iran is already saying that this is the last attack. Their exact words: "The matter can be deemed concluded".
With Iran's threats proven (I'm assuming) to be completely toothless, and with newfound political cover, Israel might now choose to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. I hope they do.
With enemies like this...
jeroboam
13d ago
I've said it before, I'll say it again: bleeding Russia is on sale right at an amazing discount right now, so we're buying a bit.
I think this is the rationale.
It doesn't seem to be working. The sanctions have failed. Utterly. It turns out that China, not the West, is the key trade partner of any commodity producer. Russian oil and commodities freely trade on the world market, and the West is actually afraid to sanction Russia more strongly because it hurts them more than Russia. Sanction Russian metals? Great, welcome to higher prices and China will scoop up all Russian production for cheap.
The bigger issue is that the Russian army is 15% larger than before the war and apparently Russia is outproducing the West in key armaments by large margins.
But even if this strategy was effective, killing 1 million people to "weaken" an adversary is just incredibly evil.
jeroboam
16d ago
Not to mention that this is a country roughly the size of the eastern United States with a population of 90 million.
90 million poor Iranian people are not an asset. They are a liability. Zergrush is not a viable strategy in the 21st century. If Israel and Iran shared a land border it might be different, but only because the millions of Iranian casualties would affect public opinion.
Israel has just show that Iranian missiles and drones are essentially worthless. Yeah, if they launched their entire arsenal in one night, they'd do some damage. But they wouldn't affect warfighting ability.
You can't generalize from that and say "oh I guess invading Iran would be a cakewalk."
I didn't say this. No one is saying this. What I am saying is that Iran is powerless to hurt Israel directly. I'll go further. Iran is also powerless to stop Israel from flying over it and bombing whatever it wants. The reason that the U.S. "failed" in Iraq and Afghanistan is that it was trying to invade countries and make those countries like them. This is impossible. On the other hand, killing people is easy. Unless you're Iran of course.
jeroboam
14d ago
The coming Ukraine/Russia baby boom?
There's a theory that one part of falling fertility is female hypergamy. Since my spellchecker is underlining that word, I'll define it like this:
Female hypergamy is when women seek to marry "up", either into a higher social class or to a mate who is superior to them.
It's harder than ever for women to marry up. Modern femininist societies devalue male traits such as stoicism and aggression but highly value female traits such as conformity and self-control. As a result, women's status relative to men has risen greatly. This has the side effect of making most men undesirable to most women.
You know what raises the status of men? Fighting in wars. It's no secret that women love men in uniform. And many will confess to being aroused by male violence. For better or worse, violence raises male status.
Nearly all nations had a baby boom after WWII. And this wasn't merely making up for lost time. In the United States, the fertility rate peaked at 3.74 children/woman in 1957. Even Russia had a fertility rate near 3 despite a ridiculously lopsided gender ratio where more than 80% of men born in 1922 didn't survive until 1946.
So anyway... I predict that Russia and Ukraine will experience a similar (but smaller boom) in the decade following the end of the war.
Yes, I believe the IDF's numbers. I think they say 103 of 110 ballistics were intercepted, and 100% of drones. Potentially the 7 that got through were let through deliberately as a cost/benefit calculation.
Iran remains completely incapable of affecting Israeli warfighting capability. They are not able to accurately target Israeli military installations.
They could, of course, overwhelm Iron Dome if they shot their wad all at once at densely populated areas.
jeroboam
16d ago
Motte: Wearing SPF30 sunscreen is probably among the cheaper interventions in terms of cost/inconvenience compared to QOL saved. Even if you can't do it 100% of the time, do it 90% of the time since the damage is additive.
This is harmful advice. Skin cancer kills almost no one. If I recall correctly skin cancers only lower U.S. life expectancy by a few days.
On the other hand, people who get more sun live years longer.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/heres-something-unexpected-sunbathers-live-longer-201606069738
Supplement with Vitamin D you say? Not so easy: https://www.outsideonline.com/health/wellness/sunscreen-sun-exposure-skin-cancer-science/
Sunlight is good for you. Go get some. Personally, I use sunscreen on my face because I don't want to look old. I compensate by sunbathing the rest of my body.
jeroboam
13d ago
This seems to be about what to expect for a topic that attracts agenda posters but lies outside of the specialisation of anyone producing the sort of deep dives that tend to cause productive discussion around here.
As the person who made the initial post, I'd like to push back on this. I guess I might have an "agenda". You'll have to take my word for it that my agenda is peace and the preservation of human life.
I think Ukraine is an important topic and one in which mainstream opinion is wrong. The intersection of these two makes it a great topic to discuss here. That's why I've posted about it twice now.
And, yeah, it seems to generate some heat, but I'd argue the amount of light is greater. How many people are even talking about conscription, either on the Motte, X, or on (shudder) mainstream media?
On the other hand, what I don't love about this forum is 5000 word "deep-dives" on some random game developer no one has ever heard of or cares about. I don't view those as productive in the slightest. The stakes couldn't be lower.
Since I think what gets said in places like this matters, I think it's important to discuss real issues.
Yeah, it's weird. To me there doesn't seem to be that much difference between Ukraine and Russia. They're both poor, corrupt, Slavic-speaking countries that share a lot of culture. Sure, a European-leaning Ukraine is probably better than a Russia-leaning one, but it's not a huge difference.
But nationalism fucks with people's brains. No one wants to be ruled by a foreign race, even if that foreign race is only superficially different.
I'm reminded of how Bosnians, Serbians, and Croats all speak the exact same language but insist that they speak different languages. I've heard of courtroom trials where the defendant insists on getting a translator because, as a Bosnian, he can't understand Serbian. And then the translator just recites the exact same sentence back.
The differences between Ukraine and Russia are much smaller than the differences between Ukraine and Germany. And that's perhaps why nubile Ukrainian women vastly prefer to stay in Germany.
jeroboam
15d ago
Iran doesn’t have the logistics to mobilize large groups of soldiers to the front or to arm, equip, or feed them. It’s a mythical man month problem. Mobilizing more soldiers would actually lead to worse outcomes.
jeroboam
16d ago
It was already known by people who closely follow modern war that Iran's missiles and drones have very limited ability to impact Israel's war-fighting capability. I'm not even that much of a war nerd, but I knew it. What happened today is not news in that sense.
Yes, I agree with most of this. Iran's actions demonstrate great military weakness and lack of desire to expand the conflict. But I'm not sure everyone knows this. I just responded to a comment that argued the opposite in fact. I'd argue the consensus is Iran is a true regional power.
Iran's missiles and drones do, however, have the power to close the Persian Gulf down for a long time if Iran wanted to.
Probably, but as this isn't 1990 it matters a lot less. They'll just be hurting themselves. The U.S. is the world's largest oil producer and there are large reserves in South America waiting to be developed. Oil trades at $85/barrel, down 60% from 2008 levels in inflation-adjusted terms. Lots of wiggle-room there.
These recent back-and-forth airstrikes are a side show anyway. The key thing for the Iranians is, or at least should be, to build a nuclear deterrent as soon as possible.
Yes. That's the meat. Will Israel attack Iran's nuclear capability? It will be good for the world if they do. Terrorists should not have nukes.
I agree that Iran intends this as a face saving measure and not as a real attack. But they fucked up... badly.
It appears that almost all of the attacks are being shot down and (it's early so grain of salt) Jordan and Saudi Arabia are even helping Israel shoot them down. This confirms that Iran is much weaker and more impotent than thought. They aren't actually capable of hurting Israel in a direct way.
So the question becomes what does Israel do now. Bill Ackman is tweeting a source called Israeli Radar which says :
"Senior source: Israeli response vs. Iran will be unprecedented; don't go to sleep tonight."
Well, we all know how reliable "senior sources" are so I wouldn't expect an Israeli attack. But I wouldn't rule it out either. Israel probably has 48-72 hours to attack Iran's nuclear program before their hall pass expires.
Edit: Looks like Biden is telling Israel they don't have a hall pass.
jeroboam
13d ago
If a plantation has 60% free workers and 40% slaves, that hardly excuses the plantation owner does it?
jeroboam
29d ago
I don't know. This decision seems badly out of touch. Elite values are not the values of the average voter.
And while I'm sure white Boomers will be kept onside by NBC news fact checks that say "actually, Biden didn't make Easter into Trans Awareness Day", this group of mainstream news watchers is increasingly irrelevant.
Republicans can and should plaster this everywhere. How will this play in the black community? How will this play in the Hispanic community? This badly hurts the Democratic Party coalition and speeds along the party realignment.
Democrats might never win the Hispanic vote in a Presidential election again.
jeroboam
13d ago
Or comparing Belarus with Estonia.
Yeah, that's the fantasy. But it won't be the reality. Ukraine is a Slavic country that is culturally similar to Russia. Whether they are politically part of Russia that won't change.
Estonia, on the other hand, is demographically most similar to Finland. That's why they got rich and Ukraine didn't.
jeroboam
14d ago
Great minds think alike I guess. Still, it's probably easier to kill some scientists when you have a green light to bomb as opposed to being sneaky.
jeroboam
16d ago
Is the Iranian military truly this incompetent?
Yes. They look like clowns. Keep in mind this is a country which fought Iraq to a standstill for ten years, the same Iraq which the U.S. defeated in a week with a 1000-1 casualty ratio during the Gulf War.
It is going to be very tempting for Israel to attack their nuclear sites now after this demonstration of "strength" by the Iranians.
If the Israelis were smart, they might have let some of the missiles get through, lol. This is just too comical.
jeroboam
13d ago
Well, why do you think they fight?
Increasingly, they fight because they are conscripted and forced to. Ukrainian men are being treated as if their lives have no value.
jeroboam
29d ago
I had earlier classified Biden as an "old dog who still knows some tricks" in his vigorous efforts to keep petrol prices low.
I now retract this statement. What on Earth are they even thinking? This is political incompetence of the highest order. Surely they know that this is going to poll negatively? Does Trump win Hispanics by 20 points this time? The inmates are running the asylum.
jeroboam
13d ago
Honestly, I think your comment is in bad faith. You are strawmanning a nuanced anti-war position in order to police an opinion you don't like and reducing it to a "bad take" and "pro RU". If you have an argument in favor of the Ukraine War make one.
jeroboam
16d ago
What's the smallest nation or group that you would like to be armed with nukes. Iran is a state supporter of terrorism with a population of 90 million.
Presumably, Saudi Arabia or Japan having nukes is a much smaller threat so I assume you are cool with them. Let's go smaller.
Taiwan?
Qatar?
Cuba?
Should Catalonia have nukes?
How about Texas?
Hawaii?
The NRA?
Antifa?
The KKK?
Can I get a nuke? I mean, mutually assured destruction if I use it right.
Iran is about the LAST country that should have nukes.
jeroboam
29d ago
As was mentioned, this clashes with Cesar Chavez Day
Holy shit! They are even dumber then I thought. Political malpractice.
Yes, I think this is clear evidence that Biden himself is a non-entity and that his staff is running the show. No one who has ever run for office would ever be so out of touch.
So... don't walk in a bad neighborhood if you don't want to be raped?
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