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jeroboam


				

				

				
1 follower   follows 3 users  
joined 2022 October 15 17:30:54 UTC

				

User ID: 1662

jeroboam


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 3 users   joined 2022 October 15 17:30:54 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 1662

Wow, those avatars are ugly.

Have you tried bird watching? It's like Pokemon Go in real life. It's a great excuse to go for walks and explore new areas. Want to scratch that collector itch? Everytime you see a new bird, add it to your life list. See how many you can collect. Also, birds are just amazing and beautiful unlike those fucking avatars.

If you want there's a free app called Merlin that will help identify birds and keep track of your list. It's totally free with no ads. I'd also recommend a pair of binoculars.

Ukrainian women are... people? They are not the property of Ukrainian men. They are not obliged to restrain from forming relationships or otherwise trying to live their lives because they happen to be refugees.

Ukraine is already taking away its male citizens right to life. Taking away its female citizens right to date German men is a small step in comparison.

If the government is going to conscript men and send them to the front to die, then all citizens should chip in and help. Women should be working in arms plants, farms, and in support roles in the military. And, yes, they should be there to form families with the returning soldiers when the war is over.

And if these women would prefer not to, shouldn't Ukrainian men get to opt out as well?

What's bizarre is the Western world asking Ukrainian men to bear nearly the entire brunt of this conflict as if their lives have no value.

There is something hellishly dystopian about fleeing to another country, possibly even across the ocean, and your country of birth is still trying to pull you back. Particularly because women are given a free pass. It's natural to feel like there should be some cost associated with the privilege of not having to be forcibly conscripted to fight against an invading army.

Very strange how blank-slatist ideas just sort of vanish when any sacrifice from women is involved.

For the record, I am not a blank-slatist, think women should not serve in combat, and think they would make terrible soldiers for the most part. But if we are going to live by the rules of the blank slatist, those rules should at least be applied fairly.

Biden: Don't invade Rafah

Israel: Bombs Iranian embassy

Biden: Okay you can invade Rafah but don't bomb Iran

Israel: Bombs Iran.

Biden: (next week, probably) Here's $10 billion to help you bomb Iran

I'm starting to think the anti-Israel protestors have a point.

See, this is why center-left people don't feel like allying with the right, despite our increasing frustration with the regressive far-left. I dislike their attitude of wanting to define reality and outlaw disagreement, but I just know that if the right gets into power they'll do the same, but harder.

This seems to imply that you have the following preference cascade when it comes to jailing people for speech:

  1. No one uses this power
  2. Only the left uses this power
  3. Both sides use the power
  4. Only the right uses the power

Whereas my cascade is this:

  1. No one uses this power
  2. Both sides use the power
  3. Only the right uses the power
  4. Only the left uses the power

The left defected in a major way by inventing this super weapon. For the right to now hit the "cooperate" button just ensures further defection from the left.

As a center-leftist, you seem to want the right to not actually fight against the left. This is in effect ensuring far left victory. Instead, in my opinion, you should tactically support the right when they are weakest.

Edit: I read your comments below. Maybe you are actually doing in this in which case I apologize for the misreading.

So it's not like this stuff just randomly came up, there seems to be an organized conservative effort now to headhunt these woke progressive leaders.

One big change that's happened since 2022 is that conservatives have an eye of Sauron now too.

I think this captures the tenor of many protests. It's about power and intimidation. We can burn your buildings, tear down your monuments, loot your stores, and YOU are powerless to stop us.

Demonstrations have worked this way forever, going all the way back to ancient Rome, but perhaps most saliently in the street battles between fascists and communists in Weimar Germany.

Winning hearts and mind is one way to gain power. But any good communist knows that silencing and intimidating your enemies works much better. Here in America, we're so used to the MLK/Gandhi model which is designed to appeal to the hearts of a kind and powerful master. But demonstrations which carry the threat of violence are far more typical. I mean, would you dare to carry a drawing of Muhammad around Columbia's campus right now?

That said, I don't think these protests will go very far. The establishment is NOT on the side of protestors as they were during BLM. Even in San Francisco and Seattle, protestors are being charged for blocking traffic. If any protestors attempt real violence, they will be prosecuted.

Jews are still sacred in America.

This is nothing new. The pro-war case has long rested on cognitive dissonance, holding these two mutual incompatible views at the same time:

  1. Russia is so weak that one more round of $X billion will win the war for Ukraine.

  2. Russia is so strong that if we don't stop them here, they'll take Estonia, Poland, Germany!

BLM is just a three word slogan. To the extent that it became a real-world organization it was largely a grift.

People then, as now, were attracted to the movement for all sorts of reasons. Some people made reasonable demands. Most did not.

As usual, the communists showed up as they do whenever people are angry about something.

There was no "good BLM" that got corrupted. It was always just an organic blob that was fanned by street anger, irresponsible news media, and Marxist organizations. All the white people who were at those protests in 2014 are the same as the white people at the anti-Jewish protests today. Eventually they'll get bored and move on to the next thing, looking for self-actualization that will never arrive.

While Rowling's crusade is admirable, I think what's really needed is a Scottish DeSantis to immediately turn these dystopian laws on the left. The only thing that stops this train is leftists being jailed for hate speech.

By the way, what's up with Scotland? What about their culture has made them go so loony, first with Covid and now with this? They honestly are starting to seem like China with worse food and weather.

If you're arguing that genes don't care about human happiness and that eventually (hundreds or thousands of years from now) maladaptive cultures like feminism will die out and be replaced by adapative ones like Hassidic Judaism, then yes, I agree.

But unlike my genes I do care about human happiness, and I think that feminism is working out very badly for women.

If feminine standards are telling them to be an unmarried cat owner looking for Mr. Right at age 35 then maybe we should examine why, rather than just shrug and say "another person weeded out of the gene pool".

We see that in the United States a lot. People who, when asked, are closer to Republicans than Democrats on most issues but still vote blue.

Voting is more about tribal affiliation and personal purity than about issues.

Voting Republican gives some people the "ick". So even though they hate homeless encampments, drug overdoses, crime, and broken public schools, they still vote for far left candidates in their city election.

Now that Mark Zuckerburg is into MMA, wearing a chain around his neck, and is ripped, is it just a matter of time before he becomes based and red-pilled too?

I think yes.

Otoh you have assholes like me who dropped out of work super early, living off capital gains, and pay almost nothing in taxes because the cap gains taxes are so low.

Paper assets have had quite the decade haven't they? The coming decade may see capital gains that are not much above inflation. Imagine earning 5% per year with 5% inflation and then paying "capital gains" when you sell. It's a back-door wealth tax.

I'd have no problem with higher capital gains taxes, but only on gains that exceed inflation.

Or the billionaires who just take out margin loans forever, then pass it all on to their heirs, who then get a stepped up basis with no capital gains.

This is the loophole that needs to be fixed. "Buy borrow die" is overpowered and needs to be neutered.

I think the core female complaint is that there aren't enough good men to go around.

Being approached by a bunch of inferior men is annoying, kinda like if you were in the market for a new Tesla but everyone kept trying to sell you a used Hyundai.

Do you think I would drive a Hyundai? How insulting.

Just like snobbery is insecurity about social status, denigrating low-status men reflects a woman's insecurities about her own status in the marketplace. Which is why this behavior is more likely to be evidenced by a purple-haired fatty than by a beautiful blonde.

The Ukrainian people and government want to fight

Maybe the government wants this war. Maybe even the people do too. But not enough to go fight and die. That's why Ukraine is rounding up men and forcing them to fight against their will.

The people who seem to want this war the most are those for whom it costs nothing.

In some ways, the tweet is not wrong. Protesters at elite universities will be tomorrow's leaders. They will be on the "right" side of the history not because they are morally right, but because they will be able to shape history to their whims.

The Ivy League protests are not a street movement, they are an elite rebellion.

And in that way, it's really no different than the Vietnam protesters who shared the same elite characteristics. As early as 1966 Normal Mailer noted how the protestors were upper class while the policemen they fought were working class.

Sadly, these benighted and often mentally ill children are our future leaders. They will no doubt treasure the memories of their "rebellion" in 30 years as they sit comfortably inside the halls of power.

Women used to have duties as well: to bear children and to raise them.

Without those duties, deference to the fairer sex may live on in our lizard brains but it serves no useful purpose.

A Tone-Shift in the Ukraine War

Lately, I've noticed that the tone of the discussion regarding Ukraine both on the Motte and on X has changed considerably. Notably, it seems that people are taking a much more pessimistic view of Ukraine's chances. The default assumption now is that Ukraine will lose the war.

I think a stalemate is still quite possible, but the more optimistic assumptions that Ukraine would regain lost territory (or comically, Crimea) are now a dead letter. So what, exactly, are our leaders thinking? Recently, Macron went off-narrative a bit, suggesting that France could send troops into Ukraine. More ominously, Secretary of State Blinken said that Ukraine will join NATO.

Perhaps Western leaders view this sabre-rattling as good for their electoral chances. And, until recently, the war was seen as a relatively cost-effective way to weaken Russia. (Sadly, this seems to have failed as Russia has freely exported oil to India and China and is making armaments in great numbers).

But what of Ukrainians themselves? Will they tire of being NATO's cat's paw? It's impossible to find good numbers on how many Ukrainian men have been killed so far in this war. It's likely in the hundreds of thousands. Towns and villages throughout the country are devoid of men, as the men (hunted by conscription) either flee, hide, or are sent to the fronts.

User @Sloot shared this nuclear-grade propoganda. While Ukrainian men fight and die in some trench, an increasing number of Ukrainian women are finding new homes (and Tinder dates) in Germany. Concern about female fidelity has always been a prominent feature of wartime propaganda. But, this takes it to a new level, since the women are in a different country, making new, better lives for themselves. How many will ever even return to Ukraine?

Ukrainian men are getting a raw deal in an effort to reconquer lost territory, whose residents probably want to be part of Russia anyway. Why should Ukrainians fight and die for some abstract geopolitical goal of NATO?

So Biden apparently claimed his uncle was eaten by cannibals.

Perhaps he was inspired by the real-life experience of George H. W. Bush, whose plane was shot down by Japan in WWII. Among the American aviators shot down that day, some were captured by the Japanese and had their livers eaten. But somehow Bush himself was rescued by a submarine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush#World_War_II

Even if Mark does become based, it's a virtual guarantee that his wife will donate his money to batshit liberal causes once he dies/they get divorced.

I'm also pro-West. Putin and Russia don't provide a convincing alternative to a better future. But just because Putin is evil and wrong doesn't mean we can't make peace for pragmatic reasons.

This is not Munich in 1938. Russia is a wounded animal, encircled by NATO. People saying "if we don't stop him now, he'll take Poland" are fabulists. This is not a realistic scenario.

On the other hand, I think the lives of Ukrainian conscripts (and yes, even Russian conscripts) have non-zero value.

Israel / Iran War Back On?

Rumors are swirling that Israel will attack Iran as early as today. Iran has promised to retaliate if they do.

Why would Israel do this? Some conjectures:

  1. Iran's missile and drone attack was so pathetic that Israel feels it can attack with little fear of retaliation

  2. The reaction to Iran's attack shows that Sunnis won't help Iran

  3. An outside chance of regime change in Iran might be worth it. Israel has gradually improved relations with Sunni neighbors such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, Iran's proxy fights have been a constant thorn in their side. A regime change in Iran could finally bring true peace to Israel.

  4. If they can set back Iran's nuclear program it will be worth it

One big wild card is of course the U.S. reaction. Biden is in the middle of a difficult re-election campaign where inflation is probably the #1 issue. Petrol prices have been a major obsession with the Biden administration, which is why they unfroze billions of Iranian funds and reduced sanctions (in what now looks to be a serious blunder).

Israel's attack could cause a spike in oil prices and threaten Biden's reelection campaign. Having already drained about half the SPR to help win the 2022 midterm elections, there is less flexibility to supress prices this time around. For this reason, Biden has urged restraint. But when the chips are down, I think everyone knows that Israel will have the administration's full support.

Less certain is the reaction of European countries and Muslim neighbors. Will countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia truly remain neutral if there is a full-blown war between Shia Muslims and Jews?

We also have to factor in (for women) a declining sexual market value. So the max score of suitors goes down over time, thus favoring settling earlier.

For men, the max score of potential mates goes up at first, peaks in the 30s, and then declines.

With an average age of first marriage for men of 30.5 and women of 28.6, women are being too picky and men not picky enough. You see, it's science.

But Iran’s nuclear facilities are underground and well fortified, I don’t know that Israel could actually damage the program by that much.

I'm not sure either, but I'm also a big believer in the power of human ingenuity. Stuxnet certainly set a high bar for what Israeli is capable of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

Not sure what kind of surveillance assets Israel has, but one possibility would be targeting people in high leverage positions within the nuclear program. Kill enough of them and people might reconsider the cost/benefit of working to build nukes.