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mildly_obsolete


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 21 18:40:56 UTC
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User ID: 1305

mildly_obsolete


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 21 18:40:56 UTC

					

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User ID: 1305

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I guess it depends wildly on who you mean by "elite"

Something more exclusive, definitely. For broad left/right, I don't really disagree with your view.

somebody from my friends or family is compelled to chime in saying that what occurred is so "typically Polish". When I hear people wishing that our country wouldn't exist, that the Germans should just annex us and bring civilization here

I'm surprised you find it so prevalent, I don't really encounter people that seriously hold (meaning, would make and stand by such a statement on pushback) this mindset irl, rarely someone that would say it without it being a joke.

Sorting, I suppose? My groups skew male, too.

I don't doubt this, I'm thinking here of Poland, the nation/country.

Flatly stating you like Russia would produce a mildly negative reaction in almost any company, but using a slur for Russians, describing them in strong negative terms, would not. Russian are 4 years into a horribly destructive, clearly pointless war, so reactions are biased, and anxiety about Russia as an aggressor is the default for near everyone.

Historically Russia and Iran never liked each other either

Not exactly comparable, Iran is on the periphery of Russia, Poland is in the way. But the divide is fixable, mistrust is permanent but hatred not, a change in Russian leadership, a decade, push to focus on similarities. And in certain configurations, inflexibly standing in the way of Eurasian integration will be just dangerous in practical terms, and will force us.

honorable mention as the non-freeloading part of NATO from the American elites?

Head pats in public for a retarded puppy and rightoids projecting their fantasies onto "based Poland". We carry water for the US, we buy US weaponry, we can and are used to sabotage Europe, ask for very little in return. And since "US is a reliable ally and a positive force in the world used to be near axiomatic" and our elite quality is laughable, praise was and still is effective and sought after.

US elite consider us suckers, taking ideology/propaganda seriously, satisfied with an army unfit for operation outside US framework, weak internally, transparent.

you gotta ditch that inferiority complex of yours

I resent this, you don't know what you're talking about. There is not a shred of inferiority complex in a typical Pole; he is cynical, a pessimist. Appearance of strength is enough for outsiders, not for people invested in the outcome.

A country in our position should have domestic arms industry fit for modern war, own satellite recon, civil defence and reserve at Finnish level, elite loyal and capable of running a nuclear program without someone instantly running to snitch to the US. We don't have any of this due to a combination of skill issues, bad historical luck, and meddling.

non-freeloading part of NATO

I reject this framing, by the way. In fact, with the inability to keep trade routes open under even slight pressure, and the benefits of European integration into the NATO, the US is the freeloading party.

Poland doesn't have burning seething contempt for the US

Sadly not yet and far to go, but attitudes are shifting. I said previously, the neediness, the entitlement, the lies, even heavily insulated normies notice and shift. I sound people on this often (interesting, plus to agitate), I think it goes well beyond "orange man bad". In the mainstream (TV etc) "discourse", that US is a reliable ally and a positive force in the world used to be near axiomatic, not anymore.

As for contempt in the US for Poland, among the elite, I'm positive it is there. They see us as an unserious country with weak elite core, and fair enough.

Interesting, the parade of hypervisor repacks did surprise me. I'd guess it to still be rather expensive to let agents loose on such tasks, but people probably donate and pool resources.

Surely the term has to mean something stronger than 'lots of civilians died in a war'?

Activists aren't using the word 'genocide' because it is a meaningful description of what is going on in Gaza

Yes, it means something stronger then "lots of civilians were killed in a war", but not necessarily total elimination on a tight schedule. It can be used as a meaningful description for what is going on in Gaza, since Israelis seek more than military victory (neutered, maimed population, intentionally degraded conditions that make emigration more likely, both by push and pull). Fewer eyes on them, less qualms as demographics change, cover of a big war, and Israelis would go harder. All debatable, of course, and I don't care to, it's all been already said better than I can hope to.

My point was, no tight schedule does not completely defuse the accusation.

"Genocide" is commonly used without meaning total elimination. Not ideal for words to be vague, but hardly a new problem. Israelis were not single-mindedly going for total elimination.

When you go to war with anyone in the whole wide world, more civilians will die than soldiers.

Does not look so clear to me today, wars like Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Gaza are not the normal. In Ukraine, well below 25% of the military deaths. In Nagorno-Karabakh, completely marginal. Iraq-Iran, below 1:1. Soviets in Afganistan, Russians in Chechenia, US in Iraq, something between 1:1 and 5:1 looks plausible. In conflicts that are more a civil war, varied and unclear.

Calling it lame is rather shameless. You start a war of aggression, on your own terms and schedule, from a position of strength and near total security, and you immediately fuck up a school then lie until the video surfaces, like some desperate, barely functional shithole. Don't know, maybe you are consistent, but for americans in general, there is a gap between reputation expected and actual conduct (targeting, behaviour afterwards, cynical excuses); very grating considering the advantages the US has.

He certainly is more than a troll, and a sophisticated activist if we take people you mentioned for comparison. His actions are coherent, rather straightforward.

what do we do with this power?

I imagine you crave novelty, but I'm afraid it will only be the usual, make some poor country more miserable, claim right to do whatever but take no responsibility for the outcomes. Maybe try to hold out until strikes on AI labs irresponsibly trying to build models that undercut US labs.

Sanae Takaichi's posturing

It's not quite load-bearing, but impactful. I'm assuming the Japanese are not stupid and understand that what they want is maximum flexibility for themselves, firm commitment from the US (informed by the fear that the Japanese waver). Her posturing achieves the opposite - Japan locked into hostilities, US free to keep it ambiguous, even negotiate with Japanese as a bargaining chip. We in Poland repeat the same mistake endlessly, and what does it get us? You can't just shame the US into serious commitment, can't shame other Europeans either, populace is firm enough without top-down push, negotiations become an issue. It's just bad strategy.

edit: I actually did not address the important bit, posturing as strategy is between now and then, the issue is the actual decision. I guess what I'm saying is, I think this posturing is transient, and in the end, it's not in the Japanese interest to get into a war with China, it would be extremely painful.

US strategy was to ensure that even in the worst case the fabs get destroyed rather than conquered

Probably, but then, it wouldn't really be the Chinese fault that we have no chip fabs. What can they do? They want Taiwan for unrelated reasons.

defend freedom and democracy from principle, then of course semiconductor fabrication

I don't think the Chinese would deny Europe access to the fabs, if they survive, unless we give them a reason. They'd need our equipment anyway for the fabs to continue production. Worst case, their domestic needs would be first in line and there would be no capacity to spare - well, we had the bulk of the capacity for quite a while, I'd just be our turn to fight over scraps before more capacity comes online.

I'm not against Taiwanese self-determination in principle, I mostly think it's cruel to goad them without the ability and willingness to follow through. They will be prosperous under China if it continues on the trajectory it is on today.

One of the things I hate most about americans (you're a Finn, I see that) is this willingness to get involved, then casually back off regardless of the consequences. Many such cases in the recent Iran coup discussions, americans asking "what's what worst that can happen", as if the obvious answer was not "you can make Iran into war torn hell for a decade". At minimum I expect seppuku from people taking on the responsibility and failing.

I can't really understand how you foresee a US loss in Taiwan

I can see US winning - Chinese try a large scale landing, it fails catastrophically, US nibbles away at the Chinese from a distance, ends up relatively better off after a few years of this. But the Taiwanese lose, and the war would be painful economically for Europe, gaining us nothing.

My expectation is more, the Chinese enforce a blockade, US navy takes unsustainable losses if anywhere close to China. Chinese radars work, US can't bomb everything at will. Japan does not join in. Chinese navy & airforce expand massively despite losses. US sees no easy victory on horizon, costs mounting as Chinese mobilize their industry, and folds, since it is not existential for them.

predicting Taiwanese reunification at 80%

No means specified? But I guess in 2020 only an invasion was conceivable. 80% for peaceful reunification in the coming 10 years feels fine for me today.

Defensive for the Taiwanese, and tactically, sure. I meant that for the US, it would an attempt to contain the Chinese, at best part of morally neutral competition, at worst aggression. Does not fit into NATO purpose, not in European interest, so we should not lift a finger; Taiwan is not a domino piece.

If the US wants to fight over it in an event of an invasion, fine, I'd even be a bit glad since I expect the US to lose. But I don't hate the Taiwanese, I know the US would try to psyop them into fighting harder than they would otherwise, give false promises, then consider it a victory if relative position of the US improves, no matter if Taiwan suffers as much as Ukraine or worse, so ideally it's peaceful reunification or swift surrender into a treaty that the Taiwanese can live with.

"I just really do question whether or not they'll come to [our rescue]"

Rescue from what, getting into a war on the pacific? Why should Germans, on top of being a vassal, field an army that can maintain an empire that is not theirs? It was never that great of a deal, it is an abysmal deal today, to be on the lowest rung on the likely loser side. And it's stupid framing anyhow, in an event of a serious, defensive war (trying to deny China Taiwan is not defensive), Europeans would mobilize and contribute.

Not to say I want European armies to be weak, on the contrary. Big German army, please, I'll take that risk.

so absurd it must derive from some extremely advanced form of TDS/MAGA-derangement syndrome

It derives from being spat on.

but is it what Poland thinks is wise?

Even those among us rabid enough to talk of Russians, literally and casually, as subhuman asiatic menace, see that the window of opportunity for the final solution to the Russian problem is gone.

Our situation deteriorated badly. To be an American client in a war with Russia is to be locked in a doomed meat grinder for years. Patron transactional, disinterested in direct involvement, hungry for bargaining chips; compromised weapons, compromised procurement, empty guarantees that welcome testing. We only really have the professional army and nothing else, we are not like the Fins, and not getting there either.

Also the goal of "keeping Russia outside of the European system", a staple of our strategic thought, such that it is, looks a little retarded and suicidal when it dawns on you what the trajectory of China is.

That we can only rely on regional allies is already common in our discourse. That reintegration of Russia is better than becoming hosts for the European Zone of Armed Hostilities in the eternal struggle between Greater Eastasia and United Atlantic States, I think is an easy case to make. Jokes aside, reintegration is a better shot at long term stability.

can be perceived

Can is a low bar. Should, per your list? No. Hysterics like "demilitarized", "worthless" should be tempered somewhat by shame. The ongoing rugpull, but also: US leadership, US influence, a few decades, ruin apparently. "Not done anything of note in eighty years", but presumably US did; technological progress is notable, US and European efforts were intertwined, but zero merit for us, a little hard to swallow.

In general it is quite funny how quick americans are to remind Europeans who is the core, and who is the periphery, but you also have this insane expectation that we field militaries that can secure your empire. We were plenty militarized for Russia (before war changed, anyhow), had a better deal than having to field something that can deter the US (mistake), we have no other threats.

Speaking at the White House, Trump said, “I would like to make a deal, you know, the easy way. But if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way”

Good that he says it so bluntly, US is a serious threat to Europe, so this is healthy for Europeans. Take the hard way, retire NATO, build something with European scope, actually credible.

Talking points ossified - locals want independence, if locals take some pitiful sum each then that is that, legitimate transfer, simple business, it's weird to take it personally. I'm only surprised by how much americans seem to buy into the resentful narrative about Europe (ripping us off, not pulling their weight, not showing due deference and gratitude). I used to think this is just retarded Trump noises, rhetorical weapon, but no, americans across the spectrum are genuinely highly receptive.

"chatgpt" is has the strongest association with all the things about the LLMs normies are conditioned to dislike - slop, lies about muh water energy use, threats to the labor theory of art/music, and so much more. That are right to hate chatgpt, for wrong reasons. Suggest qwen/kimi/deepseek for reference, or even just gemini, the reaction may be a lot different.

For me, it was the fact that you need to click "Next" even on the last puzzle. For good 10 minutes I was solving the captachas, laughing at the idea that I am apparently too stupid to post on 4chan.

Interesting recommendations, thank you. Favorites this year, hmm...

Book of the New Sun - lengthy, somewhat confusing, could have skipped the last book, did not care for the "grand" side of the narrative. Still, a wonderfully mysterious world, suffocatingly old and tired. I'm a sucker for well executed, organic "deep history" settings.

The Camp of the Saints - far beyond my expectations, must read, it's dreary and terrifying, but also fun, a rear-guard action. The invaders are beyond wretched, but (intentionally) barely register as threatening, it's all about the the endemic absence of conviction in the European natives, gleeful self-righteousness of the traitors, resentment of the "minorities". Hilariously crude at times but never malicious, uniformly even-handed, compassionate. Funny, for Russians to not open fire on the masses crossing the Amur so as not to prove the ork accusations right.

Schild's Ladder (Greg Egan) - perfectly good story, but more memorable for the depiction of transhuman societies. Entire planetary communities willing to wait centuries in stasis for a one member to make their lightspeed-limited field trip to another colony, just to not exclude them (or, to guilt them into coming back soon). Disliked how the author did the anachronauts dirty, though, not letting them make the obvious but reasonable complaints, stawmanning them as primitives with "XIX-century morality".

Embassytown (Mieville), Stoner (John Williams), The World of Yesterday (Zweig) I would also recommend.

Israelis so far are getting off easy given how they acted.

Israel placed second in this year's popular vote, an announcement which was immediately met by accusations of vote-rigging (not sure how that's supposed to work but whatever)

Correct me if I'm wrong: country with biggest vote share gets the most points, 20 votes per verification method, +/-143k votes in Spain, of which +/-111k were online (supposedly bank account verification), the rest phone verification, 26 options so votes heavily distributed.

Seems rather easy to skew, and reasonable to assume Israeli intelligence or whatever would try. High result is a good talking point, opportunity to frame doubts about the vote as deranged, as you do, is a nice bonus.

More than anything I'm just struck by how petty all of this is.

It's not petty. This stupid contest is not some rigorous musical competition, displays like ostracization of Israel are right at home here.

level cap

I only now learn I hit the level cap (until ~today I think?). Merciful of them to cap it lower than whatever the Chinese release is at, looking at my playtime so far.

wait so the wine, they're just gonna like- yyyeeeppp, just chug it down while surrounded

By itself, the drunken brawl was fun, but you need to properly write the witch out of the picture for a minute. I'm still on the edge of my seat after the fight, you directly beat into me that she is explosively dangerous - a minute later, safe to ignore. Jarring, dev self-sabotage.

There is a silly brawl cutscene when you make it to Kaifeng, reasonable stakes, very enjoyable.

You almost said it all. I have zero exposure to Wuxia or whatever so it all is pleasantly fresh.

This is absolutely an AAA-tier game (in fact calling it AAA almost insults it, Western AAAslop wishes it had this level of pure sovl)

The inclusion of the squeeze-between-rocks sequences was hilarious to me. Anticipated the "AAA? Do you have a $TROPE?". I will be bigly disappointed if at high breakthrough levels the animation for opening those comically heavy stone doors is not replaced by swinging them open with ease.

eventually one of the chapter-end bosses filtered me hard

I'm guessing you mean the red-white lady. Great visuals. She filtered me so hard I had to drop it to recommended difficulty. Funny for you to get that other fight with her earlier, and it does not prepare you at all for how ruthless her move set is.

The story-driven sequence before that was very uneven, tho. Martial arts exchange on the cliff over the decision to descend and save the village? Nicely animated, decently real stakes and dialogue. Minute later a 5m fall is somehow very dangerous again and it's raining catapult fire for some retarded reason, very distracting.