mr_bailey
6d ago
There were probably just memorable and your brain converts being able to remember multiple storms as meaning they must have happened often. Most parts of CA really don't get major thunderstorms all that often. Once every 1-3 years sounds about right for where I'm at for ex.
mr_bailey
6d ago
Yeah, a straight subsidy is better then whatever price controls CA keeps flirting with. There's a real risk that of breaking the property insurance market with those sorts of moves.
mr_bailey
6d ago
His math is right:
"80 deaths 80 QALYS lost 365 2460 = 11 QALMS (Quality adjusted life minutes)"
80 deaths * 80 QALYS (generous, statistically prob. more like 60-70) lost * 365 * 24 * 60 / 330,000,000 => 10.19 (rounds up to 11 minutes)
Whether the population of the US is the right denominator is potentially debatable, but is not a priori crazy.
mr_bailey
14d ago
We don't really have a good idea how different individuals will react, this guy seems to have pretty badly f*cked up his life https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/23/us-pilot-magic-mushrooms-plane-engines (tldr pilot takes some mushrooms for depression, 2 days later is riding in the jump seat of plane [as a passenger, not flying the plane] has a bit of mental breakdown and tries to turn off the plane's engines to wake up, the interactions with the crew are odd and suggest to me more of a break with reality [could be due to the shrooms, or not, hard to say definitely] then a murder/suicide but ymmv).
mr_bailey
17d ago
It's another step removed from that, most of these studies are looking at Educational Attainment (e.g. highest degree received) which itself is a (highly) imperfect measure of IQ (which itself is an imperfect measure of General Intelligence 'g' which is the name given to the statistical observation that many different measures of what we consider intelligence correlate pretty tightly). The Genome Association studies are further largely using SNP databases which themselves more often only correlations to whatever loci are actually impacting things rather then directly impactful themselves.
mr_bailey
21d ago
Things could get weird. The US (and North America as a whole) are net oil producers these days. Shutting off the gulf is such a large shock to the system you could see some pretty significant price divergence and shortages between regions as infrastructure limits could prevent fully arbitraging the difference. You could also see political impediments to price balancing as well (wouldn't put it past Trump to ban oil exports to keep US prices in check even if it's a huge blow to our allies) and most Canadian crude has to transit the US to reach the world markets. You could even see divergence in the US where West Coast is more exposed then East coast due to Jone's Act restrictions making it difficult to move oil around the Rockies.
mr_bailey
21d ago
Mines, missiles, and drones? Civil ships are not exactly small targets and Iranian drones have seen some use in Ukraine. Could get ugly. It's likely the gulf states, East/South Asia and to a lesser degree Europe would be more affected then the US (who is, after all, a net oil exporter these days), so this hits US allies (and China, India etc.) much more then the US and Trump hasn't shown a high degree of concern about them...
I live near a large memory care facility, we get a lot of Silver Alerts from it. I'm ok with a text level of notification, but the actual alarm should be reserved for evacuation orders.
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