nopie
24d ago
I am sorry, I had seen this usage in some writings and thought that it is a standard English. But I am not a native speaker and make a ton of mistakes in every sentence.
nopie
25d ago
You probably are better with numbers and can provide better estimates. Tyler Cowen has analytical blog post about this issue: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/06/claims-about-debt-and-productivity-growth.html
My understanding is that it is a time to become “fiscally responsible”, i.e., try to cut expenses. The current growth is not enough to stop interest payments to skyrocket.
nopie
25d ago
Yes. When I hear “fiscally responsible” on news I have no idea what it means. I just tried to offer a better phrasing that could resonate with people. If something wasn't clear, now I have provided interpretation above: https://www.themotte.org/post/2015/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/332917?context=8#context
nopie
3mo ago
Almost everybody panicked at the start of pandemic. I don't blame people for that because we all are humans, prone to fear and panic.
Doctors are humans too, I don't blame them if they thought that lockdowns were justified and vaccine mandates good.
I blame politicians though. They are the ones to be brave in face of adversity. They should have listened to experts. For example, Boris Johnson initially was against lockdowns. But at some point he rejected advice of public health experts and started to listen some quacks. I understand that for lay people it is hard to understand where scientific paradigm is and who is exactly the expert about public health. And yet, good governments should be more scientifically sophisticated.
Doctors had no so say about lockdowns or vaccine mandates. Their views about these things don't really matter. It is just that people think them to be experts in everything related to health.
nopie
3mo ago
Medical profession is a wide term. Most doctors are not scientists, not even engineers, they are more auto mechanics who fix your car. If the manufacturer provides false information, they cannot independently check this. Think about diesel exhaust scandal where biggest Germany companies were involved.
The part that would be responsible for lockdowns is called public health. That is a small part of all medical field. And most of them actually knew that lockdowns and masks were ineffective. Somehow they were ostracized due the initial panic and had suck up to the politicians or be fired just as happened with Jay Bhattacharya.
nopie
25d ago
Not true. There have been times when printing money was correct policy, for example, after big crises of 2008.
The US had the Great Depression. I think post-Soviet dip was even deeper than that but clearly Americans have experienced something similar. It is just that people who experienced it are no longer alive, so you don't think that it was a big deal.
I really hope that Trump doesn't cause something similar to great depression. But you should listen to those who warn about that possibility and work hard to prevent it. It is a serious matter.
nopie
3mo ago
Maybe it is the other way around – deontology is a veiled utilitarianism when precise evidence is hard to get or understand. :)
nopie
3mo ago
In medicine the evidence is assessed by quality. I don't often do it myself because it takes a lot of time. We work in groups and we have to rely on groups that do good job assessing the quality of the evidence.
If you read the link and go deep, you will find that a lot of evidence about ivermectin is discarded because it was of very low quality.
Now, if some other group wants to change and say that it was actually better than we think, I need to see their reason. I need to see how they arrived to that conclusion, I need to be sure that they did a good job.
Unfortunately in most of the cases they didn't. Even Scott Alexander or Zvi, Hananiah and others do poor job many times. Sometimes they provide reasoning that would even get a poor mark at a university. And I did sometimes get low marks at uni and learned a lot from my mistakes.
My advice is – do your own research but learn to do it properly. Internet is not a good classroom. But some people can be very good with independent study so I don't want to exclude anyone beforehand.
nopie
3mo ago
Doctors will update their views with the latest guidelines. I don't worry about them.
Politicians are always sleezy homos. I am not surprised that they made populistic but wrong choices.
But I am very disappointed about rationalist community who should have known better or at least figure it out sooner.
Some of them did. Here are some prolific writers on motte. Scott Locklin was also right (https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2021/08/12/things-the-establishment-got-wrong-about-wuhan-coof/). But otherwise anytime I tried to talk about lockdown harms, I was hated and laughed at.
Russians do not slaughter more civilians in Ukraine because they are not able to. That's how powerful Zelensky's defence is.
Obviously, Russia is still very powerful and is able to take over more territory but it is relatively small size.
Not believing that Bucha is reality is like believing that ivermectin is effective in treating covid and covid vaccines are pure poison (instead of not very effective in stopping infection but moderately effective in elderly reducing death and severe outcomes).
nopie
2mo ago
People have been expecting Trump comebacks all the time and somehow he always did. At least with elections, he still had his genius. But ultimately everyone succumbs to old age and loses everything. It is very hard to accept the ultimate demise but with Trump it is now. With Biden most people including Scott Alexander managed to live in denial until the end of his term. Could happen the same with Trump.
How would you differentiate “lost a step” and “suffering from dementia”? Dementia is exactly like that, initially mildly losing a step, with some better days and some worse days. Trump has always been very erratic and that's why many people don't notice. But if you are able to separate his rhetoric, you could see that now he has lost a plot.
nopie
4mo ago
I don't understand you. It IS a free speech issue. Yes, if Trump considered it wrong, he could have refused to sign a deal. I am not saying that free speech should free one from consequences. That I can understand. But be so much against Zelensky speaking his mind that you have to thrown him out immediately? It seems to be overreaction and signal that free speech is for me and not for you!
nopie
4mo ago
Also, I think that Vance's critique about Europe lacking free speech is overrated. It is true that Europe has some issues. But the US has even bigger issues. During covid pandemic it was twitter and other social networks censured correct scientific information, apparently due to the pressure from the White House. Also, the US had very strict vaccine mandates that were completely unjustified. Even the UK managed to largely avoid them (with some exceptions).
The US probably has even stringer free speech restrictions that Europe but they frame them differently. I am not free speech absolutist and understand that sometimes free speech can be limited and the discussion is more about grey area what is and is not unacceptable. But the US is a leader in social networks and have much greater impact on limiting free speech than Europe, respectively it has more power to restrict and most probably it uses it more than Europe.
nopie
2mo ago
Sleepy doesn't mean senile.
At the end even Scott Alexander admitted that Biden was senile and had to write a post apologising why he didn't see it sooner.
Now Trump is boasting that he is better than a senile man. If I was a Trump's fan, I would find it disgraceful.
nopie
3mo ago
No, it is not. First of all, it is not of the same scale. Not of the same time, and not of the same magnitude either. Details are important.
I have spent some time studying things outside my professional field, for example, about economics. I am not an expert, far from it, but I am quite confident about some basic principles in economy. I read Noah Smith, Marginal Revolution and some others. Anyone interested can gain a similar level of understanding without studying economics at school, just purely for interest, not too deep and because it is quite important in our society. I started with many false beliefs, but took time to read a lot of things online, and now I can see consensus about these basic principles and how things work. Obviously there are many opinions about certain policies etc., but they do not differ in a fundamental way.
But then there are others who haven't given any thought about things at all but who listen to some populists and immediately form an opinion that they proclaim loudly as irrefutable truth. For example, I have taken interest in Milei, the president in Argentina. His reforms generally are viewed as good and necessary. There is no resistance from mainstream economists. Even World Bank has recommended many things that Milei has undertaken. Milei words usually are stronger than his work but even that can be understood due to Argentina's long stagnation and lack of growth.
But then other people demand that we need Milei in our country (Latvia) because our economy is in tatters. It is not objectively true. There is objectively vast difference between GDP between Argentina and Latvia. For some reason Latvia has experienced significant growth, its GDP has grown about 10 times in the last 30 years. It started below Argentina and overtook it and succeeded while Argentina's GDP during this time has mostly stayed flat. Obviously, the situation is completely different that one needs to provide special arguments why it is similar to Argentina because by all measures it is not.
Maybe some smart people have some insights about corruption, growth retarders etc. But most will simply repeat some slogans they have heard from Milei and others, mix them with some vitriol against “establishment”, Word Forum, Bill Gates or whatever is popular each season. When probed, they will admit that they don't know much, it is probably the first time someone has told them what is Argentina's GDP, how GDP is calculated but definitely know that it is a false measure and should not be used because it only hides the truth which is that everything is bad and the elite should be exposed for their crimes etc.
I am tired discussing with people who only want to proclaim their opinions and don't want to learn.
nopie
2mo ago
I don't know him.
But I cannot imagine this judge to be given a guilty verdict or sentenced. At most, she will get a plea bargain with some corrective penalties. In the current climate this is proxy war between Trump and judiciary. And judiciary thinks that Trump is just trying to rob accused of a due process and that judge was right to prevent it. Even if it will not be how legal arguments will go, all members of judiciary will think that way and it will greatly influence the outcome of any proceedings.
nopie
25d ago
Inflate? It doesn't work mathematically. Sorry, you are not making any sense.
nopie
2mo ago
Imagine you knew in advance that covid restrictions would get introduced all around the world in 2020. Would you predict that the stock market goes down? Of course, you would.
I happen to believe that these restrictions were mostly unnecessary and due to overreaction. But at least covid was real to elderly and risk groups. Increased mortality among them was real due to covid (but also from misapplied restrictions).
Even if covid wasn't real and it was all Chinese hoax the same restrictions would have caused stock market to drop.
Tariffs are exactly like that. If you knew in advance that such tariffs would get implemented, you could bet safely that the stock market is going to react very negatively. That they are introduced to imaginary problem, doesn't change their effects.
Eventually people will have enough and will remove Trump from office and it will recover. I predict that Elon Musk will come out as a winner despite all his mistakes because he seems to be the one disagreeing with Trump (by openly stating that he wishes for zero tariffs between Europe). His loyalty to free market will be rewarded in long term even if we don't see how it could happen now.
nopie
3mo ago
Most Ukrainians are not in army, it doesn't mean they wouldn't resist if suddenly Russians would appear to take their homes.
A lot of Ukrainians work for army, produce weapons etc. but not actively fighting.
Zelensky saved a lot of Ukrainians lives. Without his actions more deaths would have happened.
nopie
3mo ago
It is mostly done with tribal mentality. It is common for people to have an idea, then search on pubmed scientific articles that support their idea.
I have to explain and again why this doesn't work. Mostly because you even start searching with keywords to support your idea. If you tried to search with keywords that would reject the idea, you would get articles that reject theses ideas.
The correct way is to start with neutral assumption and do real meta study. It is hard, very hard, take a lot of time. In most cases you are not able to do that. You have to admit that at some point that you don't have that much time, energy and probably even understanding to properly read even one study. Then you have to learn how to use secondary sources that summarizes meta studies, evaluate those sources, assign how much you trust them.
“Do your own research” is a good thing, but the problem with that is that you need to do your own research, correctly and not some half-assed version of it. Maybe laziness it is not the correct word. To me it is like building a house, you need to work hard, do it properly. Some people might just stick some wood in the ground, put a cover on top and call it a house. He just build a hut and even that was not good. You need an honesty to admit that you didn't do a good job. I don't know how to teach that. For me first it took 2 weeks to read one simple study. Even when it seems I understand it all, it wasn't the case. The scientific studies are written in a peculiar language and not a way that can be easily understood.
At university I started with simple assignments, like is polymorphism of beta-2 adrenoreceptors relevant for differentiating asthma treatments. Read a lot of studies, many positive. But the final conclusion, at current level of knowledge it cannot be done. You have to get used that most such searches will have negative result. It is easier if you start with null hypothesis. It is a hard work to find something. Scott Alexander is doing fantastic work with such reviews but I am afraid that even he doesn't have enough time and substitutes quality with quantity. I trusted his review of mask studies but it was incomplete. Cochrane review overturned his conclusions. But it wasn't possible for him to do in a few days what a group of dedicated and paid experts did during several months.
Contrarians sometimes challenge – how can you prove that earth is flat? It is actually a very good question in epistemology. You have limited resources to do actual experiments, travel to space and look at earth from outside. You only have access to the library. What are the methods to judge which information you can trust and why and which is not trustable. It opens whole philosophy of science, all about scientific paradigms and so on. Even scientists and engineers studying the actual things very deeply, like those who create and manage GPS system, haven't thought about these things. They are inside the paradigm but cannot describe it outsiders. Just like a native speaker often is unable to explain even simple phonetics of their own language. They have internalized them so deeply that they are unable to under realize that. Once I asked a native Japanese speaker, a linguist in fact, why I hear that in certain words they omit one sound. And his reaction was what? They never realized this omission.
I don't know all about these political details. I think they are irrelevant. What is relevant is that we follow scientific process. Initially with new ideas, things, it is common that practice does not follow scientific evidence but gradually there is a demand for evidence-based practice and that what happened with transgender therapies in the UK. Science is never settled in the stone, however. I expect more studies and more reviews etc., all moving towards more evidence-based practice. And obviously, evidence can change with time with better studies and reviews.
As for ivermectin, we get a lot of prescriptions in the UK, both for tablets and cream, for parasite treatment. I have never seen it prescribed for covid. Why would someone do that? Not risky but unnecessary. It is irrelevant if someone gets it for covid. Those are rare cases, just expensive placebo.
What to speak of ivermectin, even Paxlovid was a dud. Maybe helped some half-dead elderly people. The UK had a scheme to dispense it in the pharmacy without needing a prescription. But that lasted only a couple of months because the further evidence was not good. The US, however, under Biden's administration spent 10 billion on this medicine. Total waste of money.
nopie
11mo ago
Ha-ha. Of course you can do that.
But with friends and family, sometimes I tell them how I am doing, what new clothes I have bought and what colour they are. It's a normal talk.
While some of Kamala's recorded speech indeed seems frivolous and unfit for the occasion, I am judging her charitably.
The same critique was directed towards Trump when it was claimed that he suggested drinking bleach etc. He didn't. He was just musing about potential treatments. That wasn't meant to be taken too seriously. But people take seriously everything that the president says, sometimes uncharitably.
It doesn't.
Any tariff increase is an incentive to sell more to China and/or other countries and not to the US.
Because tariff towards said country is meant to reduce imports from said country. It is not meant to increase trade with the US.
Basically, Trump is bullying countries. He is saying, I am going to punish you for no reason, but I will punish you less if you do this another nonsensical thing for me about which I will change my mind two days later.
Now all countries need to find other export markets to replace lost exports to the US. The US role in going to diminish, China is going to become stronger which is a threat to the world stability and peace.
How can anyone find sense seeing Trump doing this?
P.S. Notice that China has increased tarifs towards the US as well. Which means that Chinese people will buy less from the US. All the other countries have a perfect opportunity to reroute lost exports to China instead. The US imports will decrease, but its exports will also decrease. The US will become isolated.
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